Thu.Mar 28, 2024

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

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Longform links: enduring communication

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America" by Abrahm Lustgarten. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Jonathan Haidt author of "The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness." (davidepstein.substack.com) An excerpt from "Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout" by Cal Newport.

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What About 60/30/10 Instead of 60/40?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben always shares the long-run returns for stocks, bonds and cash. It’s essentially 10%, 5% and 3%. I know past is not predictive, blah, blah, blah but am well aware that cash has the lowest prospective returns of the main asset classes. Knowing this full well, I still want to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash in retirement so I can sleep at night.

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6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.6% in February; Down 7.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 1.6% in February Pending home sales in January grew 1.6% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – increased to 75.6 in February.

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The Integration Puzzle

Wealth Management

As advisory firms continue to confront the challenges of technology integration there are steps they can take to help mitigate them.

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Reaches Highest Level Since July 2021

Advisor Perspectives

Consumer sentiment reached its highest level since July 2021 this month according to the final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index rose 2.5 points (3.3%) to 79.4 from the February final. The latest reading was below the forecast of 76.5.

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Kestra Scores $600M NYC Firm

Wealth Management

Borger Financial Services made the move from Hornor, Townsend & Kent for more flexibility and access to alternatives through an iCapital partnership.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in February A brief excerpt: Note: Most analysts were surprised by the increase in sales in February. Not housing economist Tom Lawler, or any readers of this newsletter. The local data clearly showed that sales - as reported by the NAR - would be up solidly in February.

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RIA Edge Podcast: Brent Brodeski on the Strategy Behind Savant's Rapid Growth

Wealth Management

Savant CEO and founder Brent Brodeski shares his playbook of success through M&A as a means to fill service gaps and expand his service model across 15 states, with national ambitions.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, PCE Prices, Fed Chair Powell

Calculated Risk

All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.

Banking 114
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Innovative Philanthropy: Beyond Traditional Grantmaking

Wealth Management

The limitations of traditional grantmaking are becoming increasingly clear.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Finishes Strong First Quarter Up 10.2%

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 closed out the first quarter of 2024 with another record close and finished Q1 up 10.2%. The index is currently up 10.79% year to date and has set a new record closing high 22 times so far this year.

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Why Structured Investments Are Climbing in Popularity with Advisors

Wealth Management

Structured notes can serve as a multi-tool to target various investment objectives.

Investing 116
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 25.5% YoY; New Listings up 14.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.5% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.

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Wealth Enhancement Group Nears $80B Mark

Wealth Management

In its 2nd acquisition of 2024, WEG picked up a firm with offices in Florida and New York.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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4 Tips On How To Live Without A Job

Clever Girl Finance

Losing a job is scary for anyone—especially if you haven’t attained financial independence. Not only do you have to figure out how to live without a job, but there’s the added stress of having to find a new one. Though it can be daunting to navigate unemployment, it is possible. Keep reading to learn how. Table of contents 1. Cut back on your expenses 2.

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Net Lease Sector Anticipates More Velocity Ahead for 2024

Wealth Management

Investor interest in single-tenant net lease properties remains strong, signaling optimism for the 2024 market outlook.

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Opening Day!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

And the Sweet Sixteen! What a great day for sports fans. The Padres game started when the stock market closed and finished in time to start watching the NCAA Basketball Tourney games. A few points today from some interesting articles and other observations. Larry Fink, the CEO of client holding Blackrock (BLK) thinks Boomers should help the younger generations figure out retirement.

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: Closing the Gap Between HNW Client Expectations and Advisor Services

Wealth Management

John Bowen describes the research from his team at CEG Worldwide regarding what high-net-worth clients want most from their advisors.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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MDRT video favorites: Connect better with clients

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By Antoinette Tuscano Just as there are many types of clients, there are many ways financial advisors can work and communicate with their clients to build engagement. MDRT members from around the world share what’s working for them in these videos, which were viewers’ favorites on MDRT’s YouTube channel so far this year. Learn more about branding, explaining complicated topics and referrals in these top three videos. 4 ways to find more clients When you build a referral system, you build a growi

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Former State Street, JPMorgan Execs Open Shop on Mariner Platform

Wealth Management

Boston-based KinneyMunro Wealth Advisors seeks to deliver "a differentiated investing experience.

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8 Tips On How To Find Your Why!

Clever Girl Finance

Do you feel a sense of fulfillment in your career, relationships, and life in general, or do you feel so-so? Sometimes, life can become confusing if you haven’t answered the question, “What’s your why?” So if you are reading this, it’s time to find your why to bring more intention and focus to your life. Table of contents What is a “why”?

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Larry Fink Calls on Baby Boomers to Fix ‘Retirement Crisis’

Wealth Management

Young people “have lost trust in older generations,” Fink wrote in his annual letter.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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The Compound and Friends: High Conviction Stocks

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Rocket Money: Go to rocketmoney.com/compound to learn more about canceling your unwanted subscriptions On today’s show, we discuss: FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years The S&P 500 is poised for best start to year since 2019 U.S. sues Apple, alleges tech giant exploits illegal monopoly MiB: Danny Kahneman Subscribe here to The Compound I.

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Q4 GDP Growth Revised Up to 3.4% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

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Moving Averages: S&P Finishes March Up 3.1%

Advisor Perspectives

Valid until the market close on April 30, 2024 The S&P 500 closed March with a monthly gain of 3.10%, after a gain of 5.17% in February. After close on the last day of the month, zero of five Ivy portfolio ETFs are signaling "cash", down from last month's final single "cash" signal.