Wed.Feb 12, 2025

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“How Much More Will I Get?”: Calculating The Impact Of WEP And GPO’s Repeal On Social Security Benefits

Nerd's Eye View

When the Social Security Fairness Act was signed into law on January 5, 2025, it came as a relief to many recipients of state or local government pensions whose Social Security benefits had been, up until now, reduced by the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) for individuals claiming retirement benefits under their own name, or the Government Pension Offset (GPO) for those claiming spousal or survivor benefits under a current or former spouse's name.

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MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 7, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 194
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Wednesday links: the broken market excuse

Abnormal Returns

Markets The big multi-decade trends driving the U.S. stock market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The stock market is getting pricey, but that doesn't necessarily mean sell. (brklyninvestor.com) Crypto Bitcoin strategic reserve, or not, Bitcoin has gone mainstream. (ig.ft.com) Solana ETFs are queued up at the SEC. (sherwood.news) More altcoin ETFs are coming down the pike.

Marketing 147
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 3.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through December 2024.

Food 162
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Personal finance links: the immense role of luck

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff on the continued case for global diversification. (peterlazaroff.com) Khe Hy talks with Elle Griffin about the death of the 40-hour workweek. (youtube.com) Sahil Bloom Barry Ritholtz talks with Sahil Bloom author of the new book "The 5 Types of Wealth: A Transformative Guide to Design Your Dream Life." (ritholtz.com) Derek Thompson talks with Sahil Bloom author of the new book "The 5 Types of Wealth: A Transformative Guide to Design Your Dream Life.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week. Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

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More Trending

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BLS: CPI Increased 0.5% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January , after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in January, accounting for nearly 30 percent of the monthly all items increase.

Food 147
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401k Real Talk Episode 139: February 12, 2025

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about forfeiture lawsuits, January job growth, Empower's wealth unit, advisor use of AI and more.

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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in January

Calculated Risk

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Food 147
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Enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act May Resume

Wealth Management

The DOJ has filed a notice of appeal and a motion to stay the injunction stopping the enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Who Are More Degenerate Gamblers, Sports Investors or Investors?

The Big Picture

Fun conversation with Tom Keene, David Gura chatting about the Knicks, LeBron, and the degenerate gamblers who have taken over American Sports. Stick around until my voice gives out… The post Who Are More Degenerate Gamblers, Sports Investors or Investors? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 133
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Robinhood Revenue Doubles, Fueled by Surge in Crypto Trading

Wealth Management

Robinhood reported revenue that more than doubled as crypto-market transactions around the presidential election buoyed the online-trading firm.

Marketing 191
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Deconstructing Portable Alpha

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Yesterday, I referenced a chart comparing the returns of 100% equities versus 50/50 equities/bonds and 50/50 equities/low correlating alternatives. Here's another version of that chart from the Man Institute. The timeframe in today's chart is more useful because it gets into the period where retail accessible funds started to become available. The title of the Man article is Why Alpha Matters for Retirement Savers and in it, they make their case for portable alpha.

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Wealth Management Invest: Ares’ Approach to Private Markets with Brendan McCurdy

Wealth Management

Ares' Brendan McCurdy discusses how financial advisors navigate the complexities of private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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The Ten Most Fundamentally Sound S&P 500 Stocks

Validea

The S&P 500’s remarkable performance in recent years has been heavily driven by a handful of dominant technology companies, particularly the “Magnificent Seven” – Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, and Tesla. While these tech giants have certainly delivered impressive returns, their outsized influence has overshadowed the broader market composition and potentially created a blind spot for investors.

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CD&R Hires Former Schwab CFO to Guide Wealth Portfolio

Wealth Management

Peter Crawford helped oversee the integration of Schwab and TDAI, a sign the PE firm sees more opportunities in wealth management.

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Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: More Ruminations on the Neutral Rate of Interest A brief excerpt: When talking about the so-called neutral interest rate, many financial commentators, financial analysts, and even monetary policymakers talk about the nominal interest rate. However, the theoretical neutral interest rate is a real, or inflation-adjusted interest rate.

Marketing 113
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Charles Schwab Expands 24-Hour Trading to All Its Retail Clients

Wealth Management

Schwabs retail clients will be able to trade a wider range of securities 24 hours, five days a week.

Retail 174
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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Animal Spirits: Is $1 Million a Lot of Money?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by ProShares and Fabric: See here for more information on ProShare’s full range of ETFs Go to meetfabric.com/spiritsfor more information on life insurance from Fabric by Gerber Life Get a random Animal Spirits chart here On today’s show, we discuss: Is America Still a Nation of Small Businesses?

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CFPB Disarray Puts Future Fintech, Bank Oversight Into Question

Wealth Management

Americans hold more than $12.5 trillion inmortgage debtand $1.17 trillion in credit card balances as of the end of September oversight of which is now uncertain.

Banking 150
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How to Adjust Your Marketing Budget to Drive Organic Growth

Advisor Perspectives

You’ve set your 2025 budgets, and now you’re working with them – but is your marketing budget supporting the firm’s growth goal?

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Pennsylvania Court Rules Beneficiaries Can’t Unilaterally Change Trust’s Situs

Wealth Management

Doing so would undermine the grantors intent.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Inflation Since 1872: A Long-Term Look at the CPI

Advisor Perspectives

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) release for January puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.00%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.73% average since the end of the Second World War for a 20th straight month. However, inflation now sits just above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.91%.

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SignatureFD Adds M&A Vet Peter Nesvold to Board

Wealth Management

CEO Heather Robertson Fortner brings on an M&A and investment specialist as she seeks to hit a $10 billion AUM target by years end.

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2025: The Year of the Snake According to the Chinese Zodiac Calendar

Advisor Perspectives

The equity markets were lower after facing a trifecta of headwinds from China, the Fed, and the White House. Stocks are running a bit serpentine right now, with tech under extreme pressure in response to headlines highlighting the low-cost language model developed by Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek.

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Internal auditors, wake up to and report this serious weakness!

Norman Marks

Far too many organizations have ineffective risk management, and in my experience far too few auditors are reporting this to top management and the board as a VERY serious problem. (I will let you decide what to call it; I will use the expression, problem.

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Fall In Love With the Month-End Close

It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

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Mastering Client Meetings: How Much Investment Information to Provide?

Advisor Perspectives

Let’s explore how to strike the right balance to keep your client meetings engaging, relevant, and impactful.

Clients 60
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4 Mistakes You Might Not Know You’re Making With Your Target-Date Fund

Tobias Financial

Target-date funds are designed to be an easy, set-it-and-forget-it investment option for retirement, and theyve gained immense popularity with over $3.5 trillion invested by the end of 2023, according to Morningstar. These funds offer a diversified mix of stocks and bonds and adjust their risk level as you approach retirement. However, many investors still make some key mistakes that can hinder their long-term financial goals.

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Nvidia Shares No Longer Bulletproof as DeepSeek Fears Linger

Advisor Perspectives

Nvidia Corp. investors have typically rushed to buy the stock on any dips. But the mood since the DeepSeek-driven rout has been different, signaling that fears of a slowdown in AI spending aren’t going away.

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Are You Stuck in the Messy Middle of Transition?

Leading Advisor

Change doesnt happen in a straight line. Instead, it often involves a period of uncertainty and discomfort known as the messy middle. This phase is… The post Are You Stuck in the Messy Middle of Transition? appeared first on Leading Advisor - Simon Reilly.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g