Thu.May 02, 2024

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Why the FED Should Be Already Cutting

The Big Picture

The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.

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Longform links: the greatest possession

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from “Rebellion: How Antiliberalism is Tearing America Apart — Again” by Robert Kagan. (wapo.st) A Q&A withJoseph Cox who is the author of "Dark Wire: The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever." (semafor.com) An excerpt from "The Unexpected: Navigating Pregnancy During and After Complications" by Emily Oster and Nathan Fox.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 137: When Does Your Career Transition From Saying “Yes” To Opportunities And Focusing More On “No” Instead

Nerd's Eye View

A career as a financial advicer can be remarkably rewarding, as it offers the opportunity to have a meaningful impact on clients' lives all while making a good living. However, the main hurdle that almost every advicer faces, particularly those who launch a practice from scratch, is that the early years are often a struggle as new advicers try to attract clients, generate revenue, and start to build their businesses.

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Thursday links: the return of the home page

Abnormal Returns

Berkshire Hathaway 10 questions for Warren Buffett including 'Berkshire’s stock buybacks have slowed in the past two years. Does that mean you are less enamored of Berkshire shares at current valuations? ' (barrons.com) How long will Ajit Jain stay in the lead of Berkshire's insurance business? (ft.com) Why it's difficult for Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) stock to outperform any more (wsj.com) Companies Viking Holdings ($VIK) is off to a good start.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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What’s the Right Savings Rate?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: On this week’s show you discussed lifestyle creep and that one way to mitigate it is by maintaining or increasing your savings rate. Are you aware of any frameworks on how to determine a ballpark target savings rate? Every year my wife and I create an annual budget that outlines the actual cash we receive from our paychecks and annual bonus (after 401k, taxes etc.), we set a target savings rate and th.

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More Trending

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Altruist Raises $169M in Latest Funding Round

Wealth Management

The Series E funding round values RIA custodian Altruist at $1.5 billion.

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Buffett Devotees Head to Omaha for First Meeting Without Munger

Advisor Perspectives

When Berkshire Hathaway Inc. devotees gather in Omaha on Saturday for its annual meeting, there will be a noticeable void on stage.

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Help Clients Ease Into Impact Investing by Starting with Deposits

Wealth Management

Aligning cash holdings with the right financial institution can be a great way for wealth advisors—and their clients—to get started.

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The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs

Advisor Perspectives

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2024 close.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Osaic Super OSJ Rolls Out Affiliation Model for Fee-Only RIAs

Wealth Management

Rita Robbins sees an opportunity to bring Affiliated Advisors' service model to fee-only advisory firms bogged down in “the muddy middle.

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No, AI Will Not Replace Human-Led Financial Advice

Advisor Perspectives

Advisors can already pick from dozens of tech products that use generative AI to automate aspects of their work. How long will it be until we see an end-to-end generative AI platform that does everything a human advisor can do, just as well as they can - if not better?

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Franklin Templeton Partners With Microsoft on AI Platform

Wealth Management

While the firm's sales and marketing teams will benefit first, Franklin Templeton hopes the technology will have broader applications for financial services.

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The Compound and Friends: Priced to Perfection

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Global X: See here for more information on Global X’s full ETF suite On today’s show, we discuss: Jay Powell on stagflation concerns The interview heard around the world Apple earnings expectations Subscribe here to The Compound Insider newsletter Favorites Ripley John Wick Fried Chicken and Evil Women Listen here: Jeff deGraaf: LinkedIn Tw.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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RFG Advisory Adds Edward Jones Advisor To Launch N.C Firm

Wealth Management

Ahmad Quqa and his team will create Crescent Private Wealth by aligning with RFG. The move follows several executive hires at RFG earlier this year.

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Unemployment Claims Unchanged, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending April 27, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 208,000, unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 212,000 jobless claims.

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The Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: How the FTC’s Rule on Non-Competes May Impact Advisors

Wealth Management

Attorney Matt Baum breaks down the facts on the latest FTC noncompete rule, the potential impact on an advisor’s business, current agreements, the ability to transition and more.

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Rebuilding A Struggling ETF From Scratch

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A few different things for this post. First is a fascinating blog post from Finomial about factor investing. Finomial looked at the excess return generated long only factors like momentum, quality, various valuation metrics and I would add covered call fund to this discussion too. They also long only multi-factor ETFs like the Goldman Sachs Active Beta US Large Cap Equity (GSLC).

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 208,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly cl

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Buffett Valuation Indicator: April 2024

Advisor Perspectives

With the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 204.7%, up from 184.4% the previous quarter.

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Trade Deficit at $69.4 Billion in March

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March , down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February, revised. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

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The Total Return Roller Coaster

Advisor Perspectives

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,655 for an annualized real return of 10.25%.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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April Employment Preview

Calculated Risk

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. There were 303,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%. From Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 275k in April. Our forecast reflects a favorable evolution in the April seasonal factors and a continued boost from above-normal immigration.

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Trade Deficit Shrinks to $69.37B in March

Advisor Perspectives

The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In March, the trade deficit shrunk by 0.1% to $69.37B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of $69.50B.

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Friday: Employment Report

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, up from 51.4.

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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields

Advisor Perspectives

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of April 30, it was 4.69%.

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How to Navigate Revenue and Expense Management: Competitive Insights for Financial Success

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

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Understanding Low Volatility Investing

Validea

What is Low Volatility Investing? Low volatility investing is an investment approach that focuses on stocks with low price fluctuations. The core tenet is that lower risk stocks, as measured by volatility of returns, can generate better risk-adjusted returns over the long run compared to the overall market. This runs counter to standard financial theory which states that investors must take on more risk to achieve higher returns.

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Fed Policies Turn the Wealth Gap Into a Chasm

Advisor Perspectives

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and other Fed policies eased financial conditions, bolstering investor confidence.

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From Croatia Comes Commitment to Care for the Community

NAIFA Advisor Today

Sue Kuraja is a brokerage director specializing in providing non-profit consultancy services. She focuses on aligning personal and professional goals to maximize outcomes for organizations. With her strategic guidance and personalized approach, she helps build successful and sustainable organizations that drive real-world impact. As an experienced tech researcher, journalist, and business transformation advocate, Sue was recognized as the 2021 Women in Insurance & Financial Services Woman of