The Big Picture
MAY 2, 2024
The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.3% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
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Wealth Management
MAY 2, 2024
The Series E funding round values RIA custodian Altruist at $1.5 billion.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 2, 2024
Books An excerpt from “Rebellion: How Antiliberalism is Tearing America Apart — Again” by Robert Kagan. (wapo.st) A Q&A withJoseph Cox who is the author of "Dark Wire: The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever." (semafor.com) An excerpt from "The Unexpected: Navigating Pregnancy During and After Complications" by Emily Oster and Nathan Fox.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Wealth Management
MAY 2, 2024
Aligning cash holdings with the right financial institution can be a great way for wealth advisors—and their clients—to get started.
Abnormal Returns
MAY 2, 2024
Berkshire Hathaway 10 questions for Warren Buffett including 'Berkshire’s stock buybacks have slowed in the past two years. Does that mean you are less enamored of Berkshire shares at current valuations? ' (barrons.com) How long will Ajit Jain stay in the lead of Berkshire's insurance business? (ft.com) Why it's difficult for Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) stock to outperform any more (wsj.com) Companies Viking Holdings ($VIK) is off to a good start.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Nerd's Eye View
MAY 2, 2024
A career as a financial advicer can be remarkably rewarding, as it offers the opportunity to have a meaningful impact on clients' lives all while making a good living. However, the main hurdle that almost every advicer faces, particularly those who launch a practice from scratch, is that the early years are often a struggle as new advicers try to attract clients, generate revenue, and start to build their businesses.
Wealth Management
MAY 2, 2024
While the firm's sales and marketing teams will benefit first, Franklin Templeton hopes the technology will have broader applications for financial services.
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
The DOL reported : In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000 , unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly cl
Wealth Management
MAY 2, 2024
Ahmad Quqa and his team will create Crescent Private Wealth by aligning with RFG. The move follows several executive hires at RFG earlier this year.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $69.4 billion in March , down $0.1 billion from $69.5 billion in February, revised. March exports were $257.6 billion, $5.3 billion less than February exports. March imports were $327.0 billion, $5.4 billion less than February imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.
Wealth Management
MAY 2, 2024
Attorney Matt Baum breaks down the facts on the latest FTC noncompete rule, the potential impact on an advisor’s business, current agreements, the ability to transition and more.
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. There were 303,000 jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%. From Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 275k in April. Our forecast reflects a favorable evolution in the April seasonal factors and a continued boost from above-normal immigration.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MAY 2, 2024
A reader asks: On this week’s show you discussed lifestyle creep and that one way to mitigate it is by maintaining or increasing your savings rate. Are you aware of any frameworks on how to determine a ballpark target savings rate? Every year my wife and I create an annual budget that outlines the actual cash we receive from our paychecks and annual bonus (after 401k, taxes etc.), we set a target savings rate and th.
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Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April. The consensus is for 210,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.8%. • At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 52.0, up from 51.4.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
When Berkshire Hathaway Inc. devotees gather in Omaha on Saturday for its annual meeting, there will be a noticeable void on stage.
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Update on Mortgage Rates and Spreads and also New / Renewal Rents A brief excerpt: As I’ve written about before, that “new” vs. “renewal” rent growth gap has been observed by publicly-traded companies that are in the residential rental business. On that score, here are some data from Invitation Homes quarterly earnings supplement on rent growth trends.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the April 2024 close.
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The Irrelevant Investor
MAY 2, 2024
Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Global X: See here for more information on Global X’s full ETF suite On today’s show, we discuss: Jay Powell on stagflation concerns The interview heard around the world Apple earnings expectations Subscribe here to The Compound Insider newsletter Favorites Ripley John Wick Fried Chicken and Evil Women Listen here: Jeff deGraaf: LinkedIn Tw.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
Advisors can already pick from dozens of tech products that use generative AI to automate aspects of their work. How long will it be until we see an end-to-end generative AI platform that does everything a human advisor can do, just as well as they can - if not better?
The Better Letter
MAY 2, 2024
There are an estimated 97 million songs built off of just 12 notes, but less than one percent of those songs resonate. The rest live in oblivion. Some of the oblivion songs are great (like this one ). Many of the resonating songs are mediocre (like this one ). Some of the resonating songs are truly dreadful (like this former number one). Cream doesn’t always rise.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
In the week ending April 27, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 208,000, unchanged from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 212,000 jobless claims.
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Random Roger's Retirement Planning
MAY 2, 2024
A few different things for this post. First is a fascinating blog post from Finomial about factor investing. Finomial looked at the excess return generated long only factors like momentum, quality, various valuation metrics and I would add covered call fund to this discussion too. They also long only multi-factor ETFs like the Goldman Sachs Active Beta US Large Cap Equity (GSLC).
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
With the Q1 GDP advance estimate and the April close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP. The current reading is 204.7%, up from 184.4% the previous quarter.
Validea
MAY 2, 2024
What is Low Volatility Investing? Low volatility investing is an investment approach that focuses on stocks with low price fluctuations. The core tenet is that lower risk stocks, as measured by volatility of returns, can generate better risk-adjusted returns over the long run compared to the overall market. This runs counter to standard financial theory which states that investors must take on more risk to achieve higher returns.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation? The purchasing power of your investment has increased to $16,655 for an annualized real return of 10.25%.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
NAIFA Advisor Today
MAY 2, 2024
Sue Kuraja is a brokerage director specializing in providing non-profit consultancy services. She focuses on aligning personal and professional goals to maximize outcomes for organizations. With her strategic guidance and personalized approach, she helps build successful and sustainable organizations that drive real-world impact. As an experienced tech researcher, journalist, and business transformation advocate, Sue was recognized as the 2021 Women in Insurance & Financial Services Woman of
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
The U.S. international trade in goods and services is published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis with data going back to 1992 and details U.S. exports and imports of goods and services. In March, the trade deficit shrunk by 0.1% to $69.37B. The latest reading was better than the forecast of $69.50B.
Norman Marks
MAY 2, 2024
So says Hal Garyn in his latest article for Internal Audit 3600. I agree. Both Richard Chambers and I have been preaching that we should “audit at the speed of risk”, as well as at the speed of the business, for a long time.
Advisor Perspectives
MAY 2, 2024
Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of April 30, it was 4.69%.
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