The Big Picture
DECEMBER 16, 2022
There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 11, 2022
"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Top clicks this week What is a reasonable return expectation for the next few decades? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Which fund companies have captured the most dollar gains for investors. (morningstar.com) Why indexing works. (evidenceinvestor.com) Rising interest rates reset a whole host of financial questions. (humbledollar.com) How to remove single points of failure in your life.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 30, 2022
Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 16, 2022
Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 29, 2022
Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. (capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. (crossingwallstreet.com) Companies Inside the Southwest Airlines ($LUV) meltdown. (wsj.com) Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) stock rode higher egg prices all year, until today.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was re
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 13, 2022
Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.
Advertisement
Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
Validea
DECEMBER 14, 2022
By Jack Forehand, CFA, CFP® ( @practicalquant ) —. 2022 has certainly been a challenging year for markets. Although the S&P 500 is only down about 15% for the year, which is significantly less than we have seen in major bear markets, the path to get there has been a volatile one filled with both significant declines and major bear market rallies.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 23, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 22, 2022
A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.
Advertisement
As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 3, 2022
We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.
The Irrelevant Investor
DECEMBER 24, 2022
A week ago I was in a room with a hundred people and asked the following question: How many of you think the S&P 500 takes out its October low? At least 80% of the people raised their hands. I then asked, how many of you think we’re in a recession or will be in 2023? Everyone who had their hand raised for the first question kept it in the air for the second.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 20, 2022
Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 6, 2022
In this article, we examine the research on investing during inflationary regimes such as deflation, inflation, and stagflation. Factors perform relatively well in all regimes on a real basis. Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 21, 2022
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November.
Expert insights. Personalized for you.
307 
Let's personalize your content