The Big Picture
DECEMBER 16, 2022
There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I’m traveling this week (Houston here I come!) so I dug this one out of the archives because it’s one of the things I believe in even more now than when I wrote it a year ago. This post came out in October of 2021 at the height of NFT mania. I never really understood it. Collecting I get. Collecting things that can be infinitely copied and that you can’t hold in your hand?
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Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 28, 2022
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. And nearly 3 years to the day after its predecessor was passed, the U.S.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 6, 2022
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through December 6th. Lumber was at $413 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 54% from $907 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 16, 2022
Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 15, 2022
There’s so much institutional capital in the market, even problematic office assets can find buyers, albeit at a discount, notes CREXi COO.
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The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 4, 2022
Top clicks this week What is a reasonable return expectation for the next few decades? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Which fund companies have captured the most dollar gains for investors. (morningstar.com) Why indexing works. (evidenceinvestor.com) Rising interest rates reset a whole host of financial questions. (humbledollar.com) How to remove single points of failure in your life.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 46,000, from +315,000 to +269,000, and the change for October was re
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 17, 2022
Collapse In Prices Can You Take Advantage? Why Not Lower Retail Prices? Deflation is a B h Clever Lease Extension There you go. Some excellent comments from @guydealership and others. The lead chart suggests Carvana is headed for bankruptcy. Not to worry, I am sure the owners got out at the top with stock options and sales. This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 14, 2022
The portfolio manager for IVOL and BNDD discusses how those funds fit within modern investing portfolios.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 5, 2022
I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. Using data from the Federal Reserve, FRED analyzed 5 categories: Top 0.1%, the rest of the top 1%, the rest of the top 10%, the rest of the top 50%, and the bottom half.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Each Christmas season I do a webinar with my friends at YCharts where we take a look back at the most important charts of the year and discuss which of these trends will remain important going forward. It’s always a lot of fun and registration is free. This takes place tomorrow (Friday) December 9th at 12 noon ET (11am CT). This is a presentation for wealth management and asset management professionals, you can reg.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 29, 2022
Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. (capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. (crossingwallstreet.com) Companies Inside the Southwest Airlines ($LUV) meltdown. (wsj.com) Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) stock rode higher egg prices all year, until today.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 23, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 9, 2022
Don’t let high-net-worth clients and business owners fumble the ball in their rush to beat the calendar.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 3, 2022
We’re having a live podcast taping to benefit one of our favorite charities, No Kid Hungry. It’s The Compound’s first ever Fan Appreciation Night and we’re joining forces with our friends at the On The Tape podcast to make it a great experience. Taping is December 16th at the Nasdaq Marketsite in Times Square. We’re reviewing the year that was and looking ahead to 2023.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 28, 2022
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. And nearly 3 years to the day after its predecessor was passed, the U.S.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 26, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 53% above one year ago.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
Case-Shiller home price data via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Home Price Synopsis Home prices have peaked this cycle but the decline is certainly tiny compared to the run up. Case-Shiller data lags. The latest data is from September and that represents sales primarily made in July and August so the declines shown are undoubtedly understated. Prices are falling now across the board.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 9, 2022
To ease the stress for everyone involved, it’s better to start the process sooner rather than later.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 12, 2022
In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.
The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 10, 2022
This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 27, 2022
Markets The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. (humbledollar.com) Commodity returns stood out in 2022. (capitalspectator.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. (topdowncharts.substack.com) Strategy There is a big difference between forecasting stock and bond returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Why you need to look at base rates when forecasting stock returns.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 14, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 8, 2022
Reserve balances, reverse repos, and interest rate paid to banks from St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish. Chart Notes Data reflects end of month numbers. The latest reserve balance is from the New York Fed. The rest of the numbers are via a St. Louis Fed download. Note the stairstep pattern on interest paid on reserves. The interest rate rises every time the Fed hike rates.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 21, 2022
With property fundamentals in their best shape in quite some time and attractive cap rates, some investors are looking to put their money into shopping and power centers.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2022
As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. This “Process” is not a single event but rather, a series of events the totality of which increasingly weighs the probability towards that positive resolution. I use the word probability because this outcome is not pre-ordained, but rather, subject to future events which have yet to unfold.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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