December, 2023

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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Carson Wealth

Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.

Marketing 142
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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

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9 Year-End Planning Tips from a Wealth Planner

Carson Wealth

By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua

Planning 142
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FINRA Fines Self-Directed Trading Firms $2.6M For Poor Oversight

Wealth Management

SoFi Securities, SogoTrade, M1 Finance and Open to the Public Investing will pay more than $1 million in restitution after clients were promised fees from lending securities they allegedly never received.

Clients 347
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.7% YoY in November

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Six charts that defined markets in 2023. (axios.com) If you're such a great trader why are you spending all your time and effort selling a trading course? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ben Carlson, "I will never understand the permabear mindset – these people that prey on the fears of others for personal gain." (awealthofcommonsense.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?

Marketing 306

More Trending

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Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”

The Big Picture

No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.

Retail 353
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Former Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Stifel Advisor Convicted in $4M Health Care Fraud

Wealth Management

Kaival Patel was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire and health care fraud to pocket money raised from fraudulent compound medication prescriptions, according to the DOJ.

Medical 337
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At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks

The Big Picture

 At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. (Dec 20, 2023) How do historical patterns and seasonality affect equities? Can these patterns successfully inform future investments? In this episode, I speak with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac to discuss seasonal patterns in equities. He’s devoted much of his career to the study of historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis.

Numbers 321
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Comments on November Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since Febr

Retail 317
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The Top ETFs of 2023

Wealth Management

The top performing ETF from each sector in the past year.

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Pontera Raises $60M Led By ICONIQ Growth

Wealth Management

This is the held-away asset management platform's second capital raise since pivoting and changing its name from FeeX in February 2022.

Assets 312
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The Word on WealthTech for January 2024

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy co-founder and CEO Doug Fritz provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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ICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October"

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the past three months – Palm Bay (+22pp), Lakeland (+21pp), Tampa (+19pp), Cape Coral (+18pp), North Port (+16pp) and Orlando (+14pp) – are located in th

Sales 311
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Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in November: Single Family Mostly Unchanged, Multi-Family Increased Brief excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies were mostly unchanged in November, however, multi-family serious delinquencies increased. Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.28% in November, up from 0.15% in November 2022.

Marketing 306
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The Healthy Advisor: Using Wealth to Improve Your Health With James Bogart

Wealth Management

For years, advisor James Bogart was building wealth at the sacrifice of his health. Now, he’s on a different path.

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Welcome to the Jungle: Mark Hurley Says the Party’s Over For Wealth Management

Wealth Management

The independent wealth management space is becoming less a friendly club and more a pitiless jungle, with big firms squeezing smaller competitors, poaching talent and where organic growth, not M&A, will drive firm value.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Summit Financial Buys Stake in The Savvy Investor’s East Coast RIA

Wealth Management

Under its minority investment model, Summit will provide cash, equity and exclusive privileges to Prostatis Financial Advisors Group.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.

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Housing December 4th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.8% Week-over-week, Up 1.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.8% week-over-week and is now up 1.0% year-over-year. Inventory will decrease seasonally for next several weeks (for the Holidays). Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of December 1st, inventory was at 556 thousand (7-day average), compared to 566 thousand the prior week.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site On the end of the influential The Reformed Broker blog. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) On the Magnificent 7 vs. Other 493 narrative. (investmenttalk.co) Jason Zweig, "More than almost anyone I’ve ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 220,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000 , an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average.

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Hermès Heir Worth $11 Billion Involved in Estate Plan Drama

Wealth Management

Hermes heir Nicolas Puech wants to leave his sizable inheritance to his 51-year old gardener.

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Capitaliz Rolls Out New Features to Make Client Business Valuations Easier

Wealth Management

New to the U.S. market, Capitaliz has rolled out a set of valuation tools for advisors working with business-owner clients.

Valuation 303
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The Ten Best Business Books of 2023 for Advisors

Wealth Management

This year’s crop includes major books by two of the best business writers working today.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Alternatives Options Will Get More Complex in 2024

Wealth Management

As alternative investment options move beyond interval funds and ETFs in the coming year, advisors will need to grapple with whether to use them.

Investing 301
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Heckenberg’s New PE Firm Makes First Investment in $2.6B AlphaCore Wealth Advisory

Wealth Management

Constellation Wealth Capital has purchased a minority stake in AlphaCore Wealth, an alts-focused, technology-driven California RIA.

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BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 8.7 million in October

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), L

Numbers 301
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Advisor Faces 30 Years in Prison For Defrauding Retiree

Wealth Management

Eddy Blizzard, a former advisor with Suntrust and M&T Securities, pleaded guilty to stealing more than $1 million from an elderly client.

Clients 300
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.