Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 11, 2023
Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 13, 2023
Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.
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Carson Wealth
DECEMBER 8, 2023
By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 24, 2023
Top clicks this week Six charts that defined markets in 2023. (axios.com) If you're such a great trader why are you spending all your time and effort selling a trading course? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ben Carlson, "I will never understand the permabear mindset – these people that prey on the fears of others for personal gain." (awealthofcommonsense.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 15, 2023
Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal finance books of all time — Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read it early on in my career. It never really did it for me but I can see why people latch onto the allegory he shares about learning the right financial habits. It’s a good thing to get people interested in personal finance because no one teaches you this stuff.
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Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 15, 2023
The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 11, 2023
No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 22, 2023
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 10, 2023
Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 17, 2023
After suffering drawdowns of 21%, 25% and 35% in the bear market of 2022, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all broke even on a total return basis this week: Sure that means these markets went nowhere for nearly two years but just look at the returns since the start of 2020: Considering everything we’ve lived through those returns are not bad at all.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 8, 2023
Kaival Patel was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire and health care fraud to pocket money raised from fraudulent compound medication prescriptions, according to the DOJ.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made. After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 21, 2023
 At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. (Dec 20, 2023) How do historical patterns and seasonality affect equities? Can these patterns successfully inform future investments? In this episode, I speak with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac to discuss seasonal patterns in equities. He’s devoted much of his career to the study of historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 6, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 3, 2023
Also on the site On the end of the influential The Reformed Broker blog. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) On the Magnificent 7 vs. Other 493 narrative. (investmenttalk.co) Jason Zweig, "More than almost anyone I’ve ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 31, 2023
2022 was one of the worst years ever for financial markets. Over the past 100 years: It was the third worst year for a 60/40 portfolio. It was the seventh worst year for the S&P 500. It was the worst year ever for the Barclays Aggregate Bond Market Index. It was the worst year ever for the 10 year Treasury bond. Here’s what I wrote last year at this time: Expected returns are now higher.
Wealth Management
DECEMBER 6, 2023
The independent wealth management space is becoming less a friendly club and more a pitiless jungle, with big firms squeezing smaller competitors, poaching talent and where organic growth, not M&A, will drive firm value.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 22, 2023
Option returns display momentum, meaning that firms whose options performed well in the previous 6 to 36 months are likely to see high option returns in the next month as well. Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.7%. Leisure and hospitality gained 40 thousand jobs in November. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since Febr
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 27, 2023
Markets Every yield curve steepening is different. (integratinginvestor.com) What panic looks like in real-time. (investmenttalk.co) Strategy Forecast all you want, but unexpected stuff will happen in 2024. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Michael reviews his ten predictions from 2023 including Bitcoin prices. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Banks JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) is going earn nearly 20% of U.S. bank profits in 2023.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 26, 2023
In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. These thought leaders were worried about the lasting impacts of Brexit, the upcoming U.S.
Advisor Perspectives
DECEMBER 26, 2023
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 20th consecutive month in November as the LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. The index dropped 0.5% from last month to 103.0, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 8, 2023
While the research shows that fund managers are skilled, skill doesn’t translate into outperformance due to the diseconomies of scale. Diseconomies of Scale in Investing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 24, 2023
Billie Eilish may be only 22, but she sings like a chanteuse with decades of hard living behind her — a world-weary angel. Her version of this little tune gives it an entirely different read than the original Judy Garland take from Meet Me in St Louis. I imagine this version has some studio exec suggesting she do an album of Christmas songs; but not only is it way too early in her career) for that, it’s a bit lightweight and ephemeral for her wonderful voice and phrasing; instead, sh
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 4, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: IICE (Black Knight) Mortgage Monitor: "Home prices continued sending mixed signals in October" A brief excerpt: And on Florida inventory: Florida has experienced some of the largest inventory gains in recent months • In fact, six of the nine markets seeing the strongest inventory growth over the past three months – Palm Bay (+22pp), Lakeland (+21pp), Tampa (+19pp), Cape Coral (+18pp), North Port (+16pp) and Orlando (+14pp) – are located in th
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 31, 2023
Top clicks this week Some investment sites worth reading every week including Sam Ro's TKer. (blakebmillard.substack.com) 10 questions for 204 including 'What happens to all the cash on the sidelines?' (awealthofcommonsense.com) Putting an estimate on long term equity market returns. (morningstar.com) Six lessons learned from 20 years in the business of financial advice.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 14, 2023
A reader asks: Ben in your recent blog post you said $1M investable wealth makes you rich. I would like to provide a counterargument to that. When you retire, $1M basically gives you $40,000 per year to live off of, assuming the 4% rule of thumb is a reasonable starting point to think about retirement income. So is $40k spend a year really rich? I would argue that it is middle class at best; probably lower middle class.
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