December, 2023

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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Carson Wealth

Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.

Marketing 143
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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

Numbers 317
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9 Year-End Planning Tips from a Wealth Planner

Carson Wealth

By Mark N. Petersen, CPA, CFP ® , CP, Affluent Wealth Planning The holidays are upon us! That must mean it’s time to roll up my sleeves and get to work on year-end financial planning – with an emphasis on 2023 income tax. One consideration this year is that we’re two years from the expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TJCA). This will mean: · Elimination of the state and local tax cap of $10,000 · The return of other itemized deductions in 2026 · Reversion of individua

Planning 143
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Six charts that defined markets in 2023. (axios.com) If you're such a great trader why are you spending all your time and effort selling a trading course? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ben Carlson, "I will never understand the permabear mindset – these people that prey on the fears of others for personal gain." (awealthofcommonsense.com) What do you get when you combine momentum and quality?

Marketing 307
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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The Best Of Weekend Reading 2023: Top 25 Articles You Might Have Missed

Nerd's Eye View

Each week in Weekend Reading For Financial Planners, we seek to bring you synopses and commentaries on 12 articles covering news for financial advisors including topics covering technical planning, practice management, advisor marketing, career development, and more. And as 2023 draws to a close, we wanted to highlight 25 of the most popular and insightful articles that were featured throughout the year (that you might have missed!).

More Trending

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FINRA Fines Self-Directed Trading Firms $2.6M For Poor Oversight

Wealth Management

SoFi Securities, SogoTrade, M1 Finance and Open to the Public Investing will pay more than $1 million in restitution after clients were promised fees from lending securities they allegedly never received.

Clients 143
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Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”

The Big Picture

No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.

Retail 353
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The Temptation of Factor Timing

Alpha Architect

The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Economics 137
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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AI-Generated Financial Advice And The Fiduciary Catch-22

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors have a fiduciary obligation to act in their clients' best interests, and at the same time are prohibited by state and SEC rules from making misleading statements or omissions about their advisory business. These responsibilities also extend to the use of any technology used in the process of giving advice: A recommendation made with the aid of technology still needs to be in the client's best interests, while the technology also needs to carry out any function as it's describe

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Rich Author, Poor Readers

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal finance books of all time — Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read it early on in my career. It never really did it for me but I can see why people latch onto the allegory he shares about learning the right financial habits. It’s a good thing to get people interested in personal finance because no one teaches you this stuff.

Marketing 145
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Former Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Stifel Advisor Convicted in $4M Health Care Fraud

Wealth Management

Kaival Patel was found guilty of conspiracy to commit wire and health care fraud to pocket money raised from fraudulent compound medication prescriptions, according to the DOJ.

Medical 139
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At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks

The Big Picture

 At the Money: Seasonality In Stocks with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. (Dec 20, 2023) How do historical patterns and seasonality affect equities? Can these patterns successfully inform future investments? In this episode, I speak with Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac to discuss seasonal patterns in equities. He’s devoted much of his career to the study of historical patterns and market seasonality in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis.

Numbers 321
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds

Alpha Architect

Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made. After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Taxes 133
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site On the end of the influential The Reformed Broker blog. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) On the Magnificent 7 vs. Other 493 narrative. (investmenttalk.co) Jason Zweig, "More than almost anyone I’ve ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind.

Numbers 305
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2023 Highlights – The Top 22 Nerd’s Eye View Blog Posts You Might Have Missed

Nerd's Eye View

As 2023 comes to a close, I am once again so thankful to all of you, the ever-growing number of readers who continue to regularly visit this Nerd's Eye View Blog (and share the content with your friends and colleagues, which we greatly appreciate!). We recognize (and appreciate!) that this blog – its articles and podcasts – is a regular habit for tens of thousands of advisors, but that not everyone has the time or opportunity to read every blog post or listen to every podcast that is

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The Biggest Risk in 2024

A Wealth of Common Sense

In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. These thought leaders were worried about the lasting impacts of Brexit, the upcoming U.S.

Economy 145
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.7% YoY in November

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.5% year-over-year in November, down from 6.7% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.7% YoY in November , down from 6.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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The Charlie Munger Manifesto (via Vishal)

The Big Picture

The Charlie Munger Manifesto / PDF The post The Charlie Munger Manifesto (via Vishal) appeared first on The Big Picture.

Investing 299
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Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options

Alpha Architect

Option returns display momentum, meaning that firms whose options performed well in the previous 6 to 36 months are likely to see high option returns in the next month as well. Momentum Everywhere, Including Equity Options was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 130
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Wednesday links: confounded economists

Abnormal Returns

Markets Every yield curve steepening is different. (integratinginvestor.com) What panic looks like in real-time. (investmenttalk.co) Strategy Forecast all you want, but unexpected stuff will happen in 2024. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Michael reviews his ten predictions from 2023 including Bitcoin prices. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Banks JP Morgan Chase ($JPM) is going earn nearly 20% of U.S. bank profits in 2023.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (December 16-17)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that this week's round of public hearings on the Department of Labor's proposed new fiduciary rule featured fierce opposition from the brokerage and insurance industries – which, while unsurprising given those industries' stance against the DoL's previous fiduciary rule (which ultimately caused it to be struck down in court in 2018), nonetheless highlights the debat

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Staying the Course is Harder Than it Sounds

A Wealth of Common Sense

After suffering drawdowns of 21%, 25% and 35% in the bear market of 2022, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all broke even on a total return basis this week: Sure that means these markets went nowhere for nearly two years but just look at the returns since the start of 2020: Considering everything we’ve lived through those returns are not bad at all.

Investing 145
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The Word on WealthTech for January 2024

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy co-founder and CEO Doug Fritz provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.

Economy 288
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Diseconomies of Scale in Investing

Alpha Architect

While the research shows that fund managers are skilled, skill doesn’t translate into outperformance due to the diseconomies of scale. Diseconomies of Scale in Investing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 129
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Some investment sites worth reading every week including Sam Ro's TKer. (blakebmillard.substack.com) 10 questions for 204 including 'What happens to all the cash on the sidelines?' (awealthofcommonsense.com) Putting an estimate on long term equity market returns. (morningstar.com) Six lessons learned from 20 years in the business of financial advice.

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Preserving HSA Eligibility And Maximizing Contributions After Age 65

Nerd's Eye View

Although numerous tax-advantaged vehicles are available for retirement savings, Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) have particular benefits for individuals saving for retirement. Specifically, HSAs offer a "Triple Tax Benefit" that includes tax-deductible contributions, tax-deferred growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses. This can allow individuals to save a significant amount that can be withdrawn tax-free for medical expenses later in retirement.