March, 2018

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A Little Light

The Irrelevant Investor

I'm lucky that I get to work with such incredible people. Dina and Tony Isola are as good as it gets. Tony wrote a beautiful piece yesterday called Ring Life's Bell. In it he said: "Overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles are what defines us." The Isola's obstacle came when their fourth grade child, Joe, was diagnosed with stage 2 Hodgkins Lymphoma.

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Investment Perspectives | Corrections

Brown Advisory

Investment Perspectives | Corrections jsayo Tue, 03/13/2018 - 12:38 The abrupt stock market downturn in February was “officially” a market correction, according to the conventional definition (a market decline of more than 10%). It certainly created some anxious moments, but it also caused many investors to worry about the aging bull market and the potential for a more sustained pullback.

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Belief and Doubt

The Irrelevant Investor

The psychologist Dan Gilbert once said "Findings from a multitude of research literatures converge on a single point: People are credulous creatures who find it very easy to believe and very difficult to doubt." I'm guilty of this. I'm much more inclined to see something and say, "Huh, that's interesting" rather than "this is total garbage." But there are limits, even for people like myself whose knee-jerk reaction is to believe rather than to doubt.

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Animal Spirits: Horizontal Support

The Irrelevant Investor

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Jim Carrey nailed it Two centuries of momentum Do most people need life insurance? To find the right advisor, do a beauty contest. Whitney Tilson opens up If buybacks are bad. Buybacks demystified Listen here: Tweet of the Week [link] Tweet Storm of The Week [link] Charts Mentioned Recommendations Legacy of Ashes I Contain Multitudes Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman Daniel Pink and Tim Ferriss Thanks for listening!

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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The Beginning of the End?

The Irrelevant Investor

Over the last nine years, the NASDAQ 100 gained 55%, 20%, 3%, 18%, 37%, 19%, 9%, 7%, 32%. These numbers are insane. But the past is the past and today's question is whether the recent selling is the beginning of the end, or just another shakeout? The chart below shows that all of the FAANG stocks are down at least 10% from their highs, with the exception of Apple.

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No Nothing

The Irrelevant Investor

Over the weekend a friend sent me his 401(k) options to review. I wouldn't wish this lineup on my worst enemy. All of the choices come from one fund family. There are no index funds. The target-date funds are 79 basis points.The only thing that is listed is a one or two-sentence description, accompanied by 1, 3, and 5 year performance numbers. There are no fees, no benchmark comparisons, no portfolio composition breakdown, no nothing.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Anecdotes are nice and interesting to examine, but what about the average firm? By Jack Vogel How is it possible that on average the strategy is a winner if each and every path is expected to decay over time? By Corey Hoffstein Selling is as unnatural to me as writing with my less dominant hand. By Dina Isola The quest for "slow and steady" is largely misguided By Jeffrey Ptak If you can tell a good enough story, you can raise someone’s expectations By Nick Maggiulli Consider your por

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Ugly

The Irrelevant Investor

An ugly day to wrap up an ugly week. The S&P 500 fell 5.9% over the past five days, its worst week since January 2016. Switching to the people's index, the Dow just closed at its lowest levels since November 24, 82 days ago. The last time the Dow experienced a close at an 82-day low was November 2016. What does this mean? It means that I'm guilty of cherry picking.

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A Not So Pretty Picture

The Irrelevant Investor

This is not a pretty picture. If this bleak projection were to come to fruition, a 60/40* portfolio would shrink $100 into $77 on a real basis over the next seven years. As shown in the chart below, the -23% return that GMO is forecasting for a 60/40** portfolio is a rare occurrence, happening just 1.2% of the time going back to 1926. The two times investors received the flip side of reward over a 7-year period were from 1967-1974 and 1973-1980.

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Animal Spirits: The Magic Number

The Irrelevant Investor

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Investors bought the dip The business of business TV How much money do you need to retire? Be careful with surveys How Amazon became corporate America's nightmare And more Amazon The DOL rule- nobody buys 5 ETFs in a brokerage account People will never stop getting ripped off 2% is the new 4% And old is the new young How to lie with statistics Things have never been more polarizing.

Numbers 52
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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The Easy Pickings

The Irrelevant Investor

The Great Northern Expedition was one of the largest exploration endeavors in human history. The grueling state sponsored trip, which lasted ten long years (1733-1743) and covered thousands of miles, cost one-sixth the annual income of Russia. During this campaign, the St.Peter, led by Danish cartographer Vitus Bering, was shipwrecked on what would later be known as Bering Island.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Luck is the flip side of risk By Morgan Housel The iron law of Blumhouse By Nick Maggiulli Ramsey is the pro bono financial adviser to millions of Americans who otherwise could never afford one. By Tim Alberta Making it look easy requires plenty of hard work. By Ben Carlson Not only are the sources of the data volatile, but economists say they may also be declining in quality.

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Animal Spirits: Goodnight Moon

The Irrelevant Investor

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: The Flash Correction U.S. Household net worth hits record highs I knew Dave Ramsey was big, but not this big Rising rates are a double-edged sword The bond bull market resulted mostly from high starting rates, not falling rates. Not everything should be indexed Amazon is moving into finance Look past the headlines Should you hedge foreign currency?

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The Flash Correction

The Irrelevant Investor

31 days ago the market peaked. In nine sessions the NASDAQ 100 fell 10%. And then in the next 21, it got it all back and then some, gaining 13% over that time. This has been a wild few weeks for stocks, but it is not unprecedented. This type of move has happened before, as shown in the chart below. What's interesting about the previous V formations is that they all occurred at very identifiable moments- the Russian default in the fall of '98, the dotcom crash experienced a few of these puke and

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Investment Perspectives | Corrections

Brown Advisory

Investment Perspectives | Corrections. jsayo. Tue, 03/13/2018 - 12:38. The abrupt stock market downturn in February was “officially” a market correction, according to the conventional definition (a market decline of more than 10%). It certainly created some anxious moments, but it also caused many investors to worry about the aging bull market and the potential for a more sustained pullback.

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The Race to A Trillion

The Irrelevant Investor

In the last 92 trading sessions, Amazon has added $304,512,850,704 to its market capitalization. Not that $300 billion in 92 days needs context, but here's some anyway: This is more than Amazon was worth in April 2016, not even two years ago. This is bigger than every company in the S&P 500 with the exception of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, and Exxon Mobil.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Coming up with explanations for past successes is easy but figuring out who the winners will be going forward never is. By Ben Carlson Sometimes not acting can be worse than taking a big risk By Nick Maggiulli Shifting the investment program from benchmark-based to goal-based allows every institution an opportunity to succeed By Ted Seides Fear and greed are undefeated By Josh Brown Most businesses are sold and bought by accident By Brent Beshore He's made a $160 million fortune and can

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There Is No End Point

The Irrelevant Investor

The muckraking journalist Jacob Riis asked Police Commissioner Theodore Roosevelt if he had ambitions to someday be the President of The United States. Roosevelt's reaction startled him. "Don't you dare ask me that," TR yelled at Riis. "Don't you put such ideas into my head. No friend of mine would ever say a thing like that".He backed away, came up again to Riis, and put his arm over his shoulder.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Income and Impact: Adding Green Bonds to Investment Portfolios

Brown Advisory

Income and Impact: Adding Green Bonds to Investment Portfolios jsayo Fri, 03/09/2018 - 13:46 Record issuance, growing demand for capital to fund green projects and returns in line with other bonds of similar profiles: Green bonds can be a great opportunity for clients interested in sustainable investing—if they are incorporated with clear allocation goals in mind.

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Income and Impact: Adding Green Bonds to Investment Portfolios

Brown Advisory

Income and Impact: Adding Green Bonds to Investment Portfolios. jsayo. Fri, 03/09/2018 - 13:46. Record issuance, growing demand for capital to fund green projects and returns in line with other bonds of similar profiles: Green bonds can be a great opportunity for clients interested in sustainable investing—if they are incorporated with clear allocation goals in mind.

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Animal Spirits: Brothers From a Different Mother

The Irrelevant Investor

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Reader questions- keep em coming! Smart Beta Is Making This Strategist Sick Pulling the goalie: Hockey and investment implications And the coach who never punts Will active stock funds save your bacon in a downturn Dow vigilantes Harvard blew $1 billion on tomatoes. Not a typo. Listen here: Tweet of the week [link] Charts mentioned Total shareholder yield Revenue per share at all time high.

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Now or Later?

The Irrelevant Investor

Does the chart below strike you as a risky investment? What about this one? Both of these charts cover the period from 1939 to 1985. The first one is five-year U.S. treasury notes after inflation. Five-year bonds are thought to be a rather risk-free investment. You lend money to the government, you receive interest payments, and then you get your principal back.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Today in Market History: All-Time Highs

The Irrelevant Investor

Today in March 2013, after 1,974 days and a 54% drawdown, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recaptured all-time highs that were last seen in October 2007. The Dow was at 14,000, the CAPE ratio was under 18, unemployment was 7.5%, and the ten-year was yielding 1.9% From time to time I like to look back at what the newspapers were saying as a reminder that nobody knows what the future holds.

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These Are the Goods

The Irrelevant Investor

Articles Just like cars that spend 95% of their time parked, investors should spend most of their days doing nothing. By Tony Isola All the other aspects of an investment will fail you if you pay the wrong price By Nick Maggiulli The bots will never catch Buffett. By Nir Kaissar Volatility-dampeners in chief By Sloane Ortel Focusing solely on the liability side is an abuse of proper accounting By Cullen Roche Obvious things are viewed as too simple to make a difference.

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A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts

The Irrelevant Investor

February was the most volatile month for stocks since January 2016. The average absolute daily return was 1.28%. This is more than triple the average absolute daily change over the previous 24 months. Look to the left side of the chart for what extreme volatility looks like. The average absolute daily change in October and November of 2008 was nearly 4%.

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Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q1 2018

Brown Advisory

Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q1 2018 ajackson Fri, 03/30/2018 - 09:50 Global Leaders Strategy Investment Letter - Q1 2018 In this letter, the team discuss their view of the importance of capital allocation. They feel that it is a discipline that is frequently overlooked by investors but it is a key area of focus for the global equity team. Download the Letter Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance and you may not get back the amount invested.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q1 2018

Brown Advisory

Global Leaders Investment Letter - Q1 2018. ajackson. Fri, 03/30/2018 - 09:50. Global Leaders Strategy Investment Letter - Q1 2018. In this letter, the team discuss their view of the importance of capital allocation. They feel that it is a discipline that is frequently overlooked by investors but it is a key area of focus for the global equity team. . .

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Outlook for 2018 | Confronting the Unknown

Brown Advisory

Outlook for 2018 | Confronting the Unknown. achen. Fri, 03/30/2018 - 11:57. Throughout 2017, our meetings and conversations with clients very frequently focused on the topic of risk. With the market doing so well for so many years, we all knew that downward volatility would eventually manifest, but we didn’t know when, or to what extent. In February, just days before publishing this report, it happened; the S&P 500 Index fell into correction territory, and no one can say for sure if the market w