The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 26, 2016
The S&P 500 has been up or down 1% in 7 out the first 11 days (63%) of 2016. We're only 5% through the year but I feel pretty confident saying this volatility will not persist. However if it does, the good news is that the last time more than 60% of all days was +/-1% was 1933, when stocks gained over 50%. If history rhymes, we could be looking at 2800 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year, so cheer up.
Brown Advisory
JANUARY 18, 2016
NOW 2016 | Taking Courage in the Face of Disruption and Rapid Change. jsayo. Mon, 01/18/2016 - 12:46. A revolution from new technology is creating ways to generate, access and learn from data that will sweep many businesses into obsolescence and clear the way for the rise of digital powerhouses. The new technological paradigm—perhaps the most profound shift in history—will generate massive amounts of wealth, but require courageous decision-making, according to Manoj Saxena, founding partner of T
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The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 22, 2016
"Time in the market, not timing the market" is the rallying cry for buy and hold investors. Charts like the one below show the damage an investor would have done if they missed out on just the best 25 days (out of 11,620) since 1970. If you somehow managed to do this, your returns would have gone from 1910% down to 371%, or 6.7% a year down to 3.4%.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 20, 2016
"What the hell's going on out here?" Vince Lombardi The S&P 500 began the first ten days of the year with an 8% loss, it's worst opening performance ever. While there are 475 different 10-day periods worse than the 2016 open, the 8% decline was still pretty bad, faring worse than 98% of all ten-day returns. So here we are, not even through January, and already we've experienced a 11.3% drawdown in the S&P 500.
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The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 19, 2016
Joseph Ellis's The Quartet tells the fascinating story of the birth of our nation. After the Revolutionary War, the states faced enormous challenges and as he tells it, Hamilton, Washington, Jay and Madison were among those most responsible for bringing it all together. I wanted to share with you an interesting passage about Robert Morris, one of the most forward thinking financiers to ever live.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 18, 2016
According to the American Association of Individual Investors, just 18% of people expect stocks to rise over the next six months. Retail investors haven't been less enthusiastic about the market since 2005. The chart below from Goldman's " The Last Innings " shows a similar picture of how lukewarm mom and pop investors are on stocks. While the retail investor might not be outright bearish, it seems as if the smart money is less hesitant to show their claws.
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The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 14, 2016
If you're reading this, you probably already know.Stocks are off to their worst start ever. But is it really THAT bad? What if we remove the January 1 anchor? The 7.52% drop is the just the 395th worst eight-day period on record. To quote the great Rocky Balboa. [link] The post The Worst Start Ever appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 12, 2016
10%= correction, 20%= bear market. I know these arbitrary numbers sometimes seem silly, but when looking at the data, you have to draw the line somewhere. Get over it, let's move on. The S&P 500 has been in a drawdown for the last eight months. Stocks are currently 9.2% below the highs made in May 2015, just a hair away from official correction territory.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 11, 2016
The S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (XBI) just experienced its worst drawdown ever. The 38.9% decline since July of 2015 (slightly worse than the fall in 2008) is unlike anything these investors have ever witnessed. While the carnage going on in these stocks is ugly, these charts only show the losses over time, as if there is not a mirror image to these drawdowns.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 8, 2016
Investors haven't had much to be excited about through the first week of 2016. At no point has the S&P 500 been positive YTD. If this were to continue for the rest of the year, it would be the fourth time that this has happened since 1928. Those years were 1962, 1977 and 2008, or 1982.33 on average. Of course nobody knows whether stocks will tick into the green, or whether in fact we are heading into a 1982.33 style bear.
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The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 4, 2016
Well that was an exciting day to start the new year. The S&P 500 (SPY) opened down 1.66%, fell another 0.95% and then rallied 1.2% into the close. When all was said and done it fell 1.4%, making today the worst opening day since 2008. While it may be interesting to look back at what opening days like this have historically meant for the rest of the year, the reality is these numbers have absolutely no bearing on what will actually happen.
Brown Advisory
JANUARY 4, 2016
Investment Perspectives | Unicorns: Beyond the Myth. achen. Mon, 01/04/2016 - 13:57. According to legend, the unicorn is a large, horselike beast with a spiraling horn protruding from its forehead. Numerous writers, particularly in ancient times, have described it, but contrary to popular belief, most accounts occur in the literature of natural history rather than mythology.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 13, 2016
When the wackos come out in markets like this, spewing all sorts of ridiculous investment commentary, it makes you appreciate even more the people that are writing thoughtful pieces day in and day out. I wanted to acknowledge some of the best posts I've read lately. Taxes are the silent killer. (Morgan Housel) You already have plenty of commodity exposure.
The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 5, 2016
What happens to markets and the economy when the Federal reserve raises rates? This has dominated all financial news for most of the last two years. Of course, in the real world where everything is interconnected, if-then statements are utterly useless. Wilbur Wright, in McCullough's fantastic The Wright Brothers , nails this concept when talking about the difficulties of designing a propellor.
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