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Calculation: BEA Table 3.1 Line 20 (Current Expenditures) divided by Table 1.1.5 Line 1 (GDP). Alternatively, Item #2 below divided by GDP. “ If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything. ” – Ronald Coase Hey, it’s @TBPInvictus. Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart t
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in January Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in January was 0.61%, up from 0.59% December. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in January 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.
Financial advicers often market their comprehensive financial services as a way to differentiate themselves from other advisory firms and to stand out in the broader landscape of financial advice. These services may range from 'standard' offerings like retirement planning to less traditional areas like credit card consulting. In a firm's early years, there tends to be more room for experimentation, with advisors adding new services to provide value and attract clients.
Markets Corrections happen more often than you remember. (optimisticallie.com) Market moves just happen faster these days. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Books "Buffett and Munger Unscripted: Three Decades of Investment and Business Insights from the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meetings" by Alex Morris is a good refresher course. (newsletter.rationalwalk.com) A review of "The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck" by Davie Spiegelhalter.
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Here’s something I shared on Twitter recently: Some people thought I was being hyperbolic. Maybe so. That’s the point of social media sometimes. Then I read the latest Eye on the Market fromMichael Cembalest who said what I said only much more eloquently: Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; i.
Since March Madness is nearly upon us, how about a fun basketball story? I was lucky enough to be a hoops fan during the golden age of basketball: Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan, and the perennially-on-the-verge-of-winning-it-all New York Knicks during the Patrick Ewing, John Starks, Charles Oakley, Anthony Mason era.
Since March Madness is nearly upon us, how about a fun basketball story? I was lucky enough to be a hoops fan during the golden age of basketball: Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, the Bad Boy Detroit Pistons, Michael Jordan, and the perennially-on-the-verge-of-winning-it-all New York Knicks during the Patrick Ewing, John Starks, Charles Oakley, Anthony Mason era.
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 28.5% YoY.
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congressional Republicans, who recently voted to set a $4.5 trillion target cost for their planned tax bill to replace the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), are currently debating whether the “baseline” for that cost should be the current law where TCJA’s provisions will expire in 2026, or if it should assume that TCJA doesn’t expire &
Top clicks this week 15 stocks that destroyed the most value in the past decade. (morningstar.com) The Wall of Worry is getting re-built. (downtownjoshbrown.com) The chances of you successfully timing the market based on macro stuff is slim. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Dave Nadig, "You are on your own. There are few left to trust." (davenadig.substack.com) Unfortunately, there is no going back.
The broker/dealer is embarking on a multi-year effort to restructure its home office to boost collaboration and client focus, with layoffs to come on the administrative side of the business.
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Coming out of the election over the course of anywhere from a few weeks to a few months: Tesla was up nearly 100% Bitcoin rose 60% Microstrategy increased 112% Palantir blasted 200% higher Hims & Hers rocketed up 230% The gains were immense as animal spirits took over and investors got overly excited. The other side of greed is fear. The other side of exuberance is despair.
A quick note on tariffs : Over the past few weeks, I’ve been putting together my quarterly call for clients. The challenge is how to frame the current economic scenario in a way that is useful and informative and not the usual run-of-the-mill noise. Its easy to get distracted by the chaos of random policies that have been coming rapid-fire at Americans.
Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a report from Cerulli Associates found that, amidst an industry-wide trend towards comprehensive financial planning and away from pure transaction-based investment management, asset-based fees currently represent 72.4% of advisor compensation, while commission-based revenues have declined to 23% of an average advisor's revenue.
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Listening Is AI the future of dubbing? (fastcompany.com) Bill Simmons has re-upped with Spotify ($SPOT). (hollywoodreporter.com) Spotify ($SPOT) will start publishing independent audiobooks. (techcrunch.com) Pocket Casts is making its podcast player free. (arstechnica.com) Economy Derek Thompson talks Gen Z with Kyla Scanlon, author of "In This Economy?
Exhibit A will feature pre-built, white-labeled decks covering market volatility, U.S. market performance, historical bull and bear markets and earnings trends.
Kevin Young joined me on the show to answer a question for a young financial advisor who is dealing with his first correction with nervous clients. We also touched on questions about when to sell Palantir, when to sell a rental house and how to deal with a regional recession in Washington DC. Further Reading: Mega Cap World Domination 1Exxon is back in the top 15 now so they might make a return visit.
It is March 18th! Publication day is finally here! The challenge in writing How NOT to Invest was organizing a large number of ideas, many of which were only loosely connected, into something coherent, understandable, and, most importantly, readable. It took a while of playing around with the concepts, but eventually, I hit on a structure that I found enormously useful: I organized our biggest impediments to investing success into three broad categories: Bad Ideas , Bad Numbers , and Bad Be
Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.2% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.1 percent from February 2024. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $722.7 billion, up 0.2 percent from the previous month , and up 3.1 percent from February 2024.
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey indicates that 70% of affluent financial advisory clients who believe their advisor is always obligated to act as a fiduciary indicated they are satisfied with their relationship and aren't seeking out a new advisor, while only 41% of clients who believe their advisor may put their own interests first indicated they are satisfied with their relationship.
Top clicks this week Are we finally seeing an opening for international diversification? (awealthofcommonsense.com) The last ten years in the stock market visualized. (sherwood.news) It's been a awhile since the Nasdaq traded below its 200 day moving average. (bilello.blog) The stock market is a big distraction to the business of investing. (albertbridgecapital.com) Another example, why the stock market is not a level playing field.
First-generation RIA owners like those at CGN Advisors increasingly use synthetic or phantom equity structures to give employees access to a firms growth while deferring actual ownership.
Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
March 11, 2025, will mark five years since the World Health Organization proclaimed Covid-19 a pandemic. For many of us, life has changed significantly in that time, and so have our finances. Since March 2020 we’ve lived through a wide range of macroeconomic shifts: the onset of the pandemic brought a swift and sharp decline […] The post How Millennials Have Thrived in the Five Years Since Covid-19 appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.
This week, I speak with author and financial journalist Michael Lewis. Michael has written countless New York Times bestsellers including Flash Boys and Going Infinite. His book The Big Short was turned into an Oscar-winning film, alongside his Oscar-nominated books-turned films The Blind Side and Moneyball. We breakdown the ins and outs of government and his latest book “ Who is Government: The Untold Story of Public Service.” A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesd
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2025 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-March provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Inventory, inventory, inventory! Inventory usually tells the tale. Currently Im watching months-of-supply closely. Since both inventory and sales have fallen significantly, a key for house prices is to watch months-of-supply.
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 427th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Sten Morgan. Sten is the owner of Legacy Investment Planning, a hybrid advisory firm based in Franklin, Tennessee, that oversees $220 million in assets under management for 90 client households. What's unique about Sten, though, is how he realized that the team that helped his firm reach an initial level of success as a $1M+ practice was not the team hed need to take it to the
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Markets In the face of uncertainty, the stock market shoots first, asks questions later. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Just how much are the threat of tariffs driving the stock market? (morningstar.com) A 10% correction is a blip. (disciplinefunds.com) Strategy If you are going commit the sin of market timing, sin only a little. (monevator.com) How bad investment decisions feed on themselves.
I have some good news and bad news about the state of retirement savings for Americans. Let’s start with the bad news. Torsten Slok shows half of American households have no retirement assets to speak of: Young people still have time to play catch-up. It’s scary so many people 65 and older have no retirement assets to lean on. This is not great.
Money Delusions: What Do People Get Wrong About Money? David Nadig, “ Rabbithole ” March 7, 2025 I had fun chatting with Dave Nadig about philosophy, behavior, and investing ( video after the jump). His new podcast is called “Rabbithole” because Dave does not do broad and shallow; rather, he picks a narrow topic and goes deep down the rabbithole for 30 minutes — which is only a few questions.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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