October, 2024

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3%: Great Depression, GFC, 1970s & 2020s?

The Big Picture

What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.

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Research links: multi-period compounding

Abnormal Returns

History You can't tell the story of indexing without the late John “Mac” McQuown. (on.ft.com) Mutual funds have been around for a 100 years now. (fhmagazine.org) Joachim Klement, "In economics, finance, politics, and most social sciences we create models with an error term and then conveniently ignore the error term as ‘noise.’ (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Global Increased globalization helps explain rising correlations.

Economics 284
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Waste water management stocks with strong capex plans to add to your watchlist

Trade Brains

Several companies in the wastewater management sector are actively planning for capital expenditure to improve their operational capabilities. These companies aim to invest in infrastructure projects that focus on sewage treatment and water supply systems. VA Tech Wabag Ltd Va Tech Wabag Ltd, based in Chennai, specializes in water treatment solutions, including the design and management of water and wastewater plants.

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5 Financial Considerations for Americans Thinking About Retiring Abroad

Carson Wealth

Retiring abroad can be a dream come true for many Americans, offering the opportunity to explore new cultures, enjoy different climates, and potentially stretch retirement savings. But moving to a new country involves significant financial planning. If you’re considering making the leap, there are key financial considerations you need to weigh before you make this major life change.

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Confronting the Change Challenge

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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The New Normal of Negativity

A Wealth of Common Sense

There are certain financial publications that you can just tell have a European bent to them. They use words with an extra “u” like favourite, glamour, or colour. They use cheque instead of check. And per cent has a space for some reason. The Financial Times and The Economist come to mind. The Economist has a new special report with a series of stories about how America is the envy of the world, economically s.

Economics 145

More Trending

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MiB: Toto Wolff, Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company Marchfifteen in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009 Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team. He eventually came to be the team’s Executive Director, helping to lead them toward their first win at the Spanish Grand Prix in eight years.

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Sunday links: controlling your vote

Abnormal Returns

Markets Jeff Somer, "Hedging and prediction markets are certainly worth knowing about, but for financial well-being, I believe that straightforward strategies are superior for most of us — as long as the great U.S. experiment endures." (nytimes.com) On the danger of forecasting decade-long returns. (tker.co) The problem with broad emerging market indices.

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A Few Thoughts On Diversification Strategies

Fortune Financial

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities. While such a simple asset allocation may work for many investors, it is my view that too little thought is given to other diversification tools that may enhance a portfolio by addressing some vulnerabilities that can result when a portfoli

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We Need to Have a Talk About “Bond Vigilantes”

Discipline Funds

You just have to love the short-term overreactions of Mr. Market. Just two months ago we get a weak employment report and investors are panicked that the Fed is too tight. Then we get a strong employment report in September and investors are panicked that the Fed is too loose. In May the 10 year interest rate was as high as 4.75%. By September it was as low as 3.6%.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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A Staggering Amount of Wealth Creation

A Wealth of Common Sense

The Great Financial Crisis decimated the balance sheets of most Americans. How could it not? Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007.

Economics 140
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024. Services were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August.

Food 130
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UPDATE: New CA QSR Min Wage Study. A Victory Lap.

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here: If you’re not aware of the brouhaha that was stirred about a year or so ago when CA Gov Gavin Newsom signed into law (taking effect April 1, 2024) a new $20 minimum wage for so-called “limited service” (a/k/a fast food or QSR) restaurant workers, read up here , here , or here. In a nutshell, the usual suspects’ heads exploded well before the legislation even took effect, claiming it would lead to widespread devastation in the fast food space: job losses

Food 284
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Why we diversify. (awealthofcommonsense.com) We have entered an era where the economy is good, but everyone thinks it sucks. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt. (on.ft.com) Google's ($GOOGL) big businesses are in a slow, decline. (wheresyoured.at) Now is not a horrible time to rebalance your portfolio.

Media 284
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Artificial Intelligence, Textual Analysis and Hedge Fund Performance

Alpha Architect

There’s no reason to think that the use of AI should lead to persistent fund outperformance, with any advantages gained likely being short lived. Artificial Intelligence, Textual Analysis and Hedge Fund Performance was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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10 Investment Must Reads for This Week (Oct. 29, 2024)

Wealth Management

Asset managers have been aggressive in rolling out AI-themed ETFs in 2024, reports Reuters. Morningstar implemented its previously announced rating methodology change, affecting 15% of rated funds. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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Am I a Permabull?

A Wealth of Common Sense

We also answered questions about how to write engaging content, defining your audience when writing, how to balance stories vs. numbers in a presentation and more. Further Reading: 50 Ways the World is Getting Better 1The other choices were What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars and The Money Game. The post Am I a Permabull? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense.

Numbers 132
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Ripple cryptocurrency (XRP) jumps after company to win against SEC for its security status

Trade Brains

The cryptocurrency world is once again abuzz as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reignites its legal battle against Ripple. This latest development has sent ripples through the crypto market, leaving investors and industry watchers on edge. SEC’s Appeal and Ripple’s Response Ripple (XRP) is a digital currency and payment network.

Retail 117
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Personal finance links: the lure of small rewards

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Sara Gelsheimer, Senior Wealth Manager at Plancorp, about the importance of both spouses being involved in their household’s financial decisions (peterlazaroff.com) Carl Richards talks with Jerry Colonna about the 'emotional landscape of money.' (50fires.com) Khe Hy talks 'career earthquakes' with Paul Millerd. (youtube.com) Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk with Phil Moeller author of "Get What’s Yours for Medicare.

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The Great Wealth Transfer: Five Tips for RIAs to Attract New Clients

Advisor Perspectives

Expanding outreach to include a well-orchestrated digital lead generation strategy is the most effective and efficient way to grow a client roster and help new generations navigate the Great Wealth Transfer with optimal financial strategies.

Clients 122
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A 10-Day Test Is Coming for Bond Market Battered by Selloff

Wealth Management

A series of market-moving events are coming in rapid succession, including next week's presidential election and the Fed's first meeting since it lowered interest rates in September.

Marketing 115
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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3% Stock Market Returns For the Next Decade?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years (just 1% after inflation): These are their baseline assumptions and they offer a range o.

Marketing 133
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New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 122
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BRICS to launch new currency: Will it challenge the dominance of US dollar?

Trade Brains

BRICS is a coalition of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Formed in 2009, BRICS aims to enhance cooperation among its members in various sectors, including trade, investment, and development. This group represents a significant portion of the world’s population and GDP. By working together, BRICS countries seek to promote sustainable development and reform global financial systems.

Economics 110
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Thursday links: the worst investment strategy

Abnormal Returns

Markets Degeneracy has become a fixture of the current environment. (howardlindzon.com) The stock market's biggest winners started out as small caps. (freedomdaysolutions.com) Strategy How often do outlier 10-year forecasts turn out? (ritholtz.com) Why optimism makes sense over the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Cash was never meant to be a long-term investment.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall in September

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in September to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.5% from the previous month to 99.7, marking its seventh consecutive monthly decline.

Economics 111
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Survey: Most Advisory Firms Lack AI Safeguards

Wealth Management

Ninety-two percent of firms surveyed by the ACA Group and National Society of Compliance Professionals have no policies in place for AI use by third parties and service providers.

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When Luxuries Become Necessities

A Wealth of Common Sense

Each year the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates consumer expenditure data on how Americans collectively spend and earn their money. These numbers are averages so your personal household budget probably looks different in some ways. Your circumstances — where you live, your standard of living, how much you make, family situation, etc. — often dictate how you spend.

Budgeting 135