The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.

Distribution 324

Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 324

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Markets Jeff Somer, "Hedging and prediction markets are certainly worth knowing about, but for financial well-being, I believe that straightforward strategies are superior for most of us — as long as the great U.S. experiment endures." (nytimes.com) On the danger of forecasting decade-long returns. (tker.co) The problem with broad emerging market indices.

Financial Advising 291

Financial Advising Economics Media Taxes 291

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 31, 2024

I once received an email from a family friend about long-term care insurance. He was frustrated over a premium increase – which wasn’t the first rate hike. Yet, he was thankful for the policy. Despite the rising cost, he knew the importance of long-term care insurance in helping protect himself and his family. Mostly because he knew the alternative and had seen examples of it play out time and time again.

Planning 142

Planning Insurance Retirement Medical 142

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 20, 2024

There are certain financial publications that you can just tell have a European bent to them. They use words with an extra “u” like favourite, glamour, or colour. They use cheque instead of check. And per cent has a space for some reason. The Financial Times and The Economist come to mind. The Economist has a new special report with a series of stories about how America is the envy of the world, economically s.

Economics 145

Economics 145

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 34.0%), and down 21.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%).

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2024

 This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company Marchfifteen in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009 Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team. He eventually came to be the team’s Executive Director, helping to lead them toward their first win at the Spanish Grand Prix in eight years.

Healthcare 288

Healthcare Management Investing Investments 288

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 29, 2024

History You can't tell the story of indexing without the late John “Mac” McQuown. (on.ft.com) Mutual funds have been around for a 100 years now. (fhmagazine.org) Joachim Klement, "In economics, finance, politics, and most social sciences we create models with an error term and then conveniently ignore the error term as ‘noise.’ (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Global Increased globalization helps explain rising correlations.

Economics 287

Economics Portfolio Marketing Marketing 287

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 24, 2024

Retiring abroad can be a dream come true for many Americans, offering the opportunity to explore new cultures, enjoy different climates, and potentially stretch retirement savings. But moving to a new country involves significant financial planning. If you’re considering making the leap, there are key financial considerations you need to weigh before you make this major life change.

Retirement 142

Retirement Healthcare Taxes Medical 142

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 15, 2024

The Great Financial Crisis decimated the balance sheets of most Americans. How could it not? Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007.

Economics 137

Economics Marketing Marketing 137

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2024

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024. Services were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August.

Food 130

Food 130

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 22, 2024

You just have to love the short-term overreactions of Mr. Market. Just two months ago we get a weak employment report and investors are panicked that the Fed is too tight. Then we get a strong employment report in September and investors are panicked that the Fed is too loose. In May the 10 year interest rate was as high as 4.75%. By September it was as low as 3.6%.

Government 121

Government Economy Communication Banking 121

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2024

@TBPInvictus here: If you’re not aware of the brouhaha that was stirred about a year or so ago when CA Gov Gavin Newsom signed into law (taking effect April 1, 2024) a new $20 minimum wage for so-called “limited service” (a/k/a fast food or QSR) restaurant workers, read up here , here , or here. In a nutshell, the usual suspects’ heads exploded well before the legislation even took effect, claiming it would lead to widespread devastation in the fast food space: job losses

Food 284

Food Media Economics Numbers 284

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Top clicks this week Why we diversify. (awealthofcommonsense.com) We have entered an era where the economy is good, but everyone thinks it sucks. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt. (on.ft.com) Google's ($GOOGL) big businesses are in a slow, decline. (wheresyoured.at) Now is not a horrible time to rebalance your portfolio.

Media 287

Media Portfolio Economy Management 287

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Accounting

Alpha Architect

OCTOBER 18, 2024

There’s no reason to think that the use of AI should lead to persistent fund outperformance, with any advantages gained likely being short lived. Artificial Intelligence, Textual Analysis and Hedge Fund Performance was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 24, 2024

We also answered questions about how to write engaging content, defining your audience when writing, how to balance stories vs. numbers in a presentation and more. Further Reading: 50 Ways the World is Getting Better 1The other choices were What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars and The Money Game. The post Am I a Permabull? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense.

Numbers 130

Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2024

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Government 127

Government Marketing Marketing 127

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 29, 2024

Asset managers have been aggressive in rolling out AI-themed ETFs in 2024, reports Reuters. Morningstar implemented its previously announced rating methodology change, affecting 15% of rated funds. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

Wealth Advisor 116

Wealth Advisor Investing Investments Assets 116

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 20, 2024

The cryptocurrency world is once again abuzz as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reignites its legal battle against Ripple. This latest development has sent ripples through the crypto market, leaving investors and industry watchers on edge. SEC’s Appeal and Ripple’s Response Ripple (XRP) is a digital currency and payment network.

Retail 117

Retail Sales Commission Assets 117

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 13, 2024

Top clicks this week If diversification is good, why not diversify globally? (humbledollar.com) Don't make your investing more complicated than it needs to be. (flyoverstocks.com) What institutional investors are doing isn't working. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) There is a whole class of pundits out there trying to knock you off your game. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Who died and paid the IRS a $7 billion estate tax bill?

Taxes 294

Taxes Investing Investments Marketing 294

Advisor Perspectives

OCTOBER 1, 2024

Expanding outreach to include a well-orchestrated digital lead generation strategy is the most effective and efficient way to grow a client roster and help new generations navigate the Great Wealth Transfer with optimal financial strategies.

Clients 122

Clients 122

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 8, 2024

Each year the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates consumer expenditure data on how Americans collectively spend and earn their money. These numbers are averages so your personal household budget probably looks different in some ways. Your circumstances — where you live, your standard of living, how much you make, family situation, etc. — often dictate how you spend.

Budgeting 131

Budgeting Numbers 131

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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

Planning

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 9, 2024

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 4, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Government 127

Government Economics Marketing Marketing 127

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 28, 2024

A series of market-moving events are coming in rapid succession, including next week's presidential election and the Fed's first meeting since it lowered interest rates in September.

Marketing 115

Marketing Marketing 115

Trade Brains

OCTOBER 23, 2024

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. The report predicts GDP growth between 7 and 7.2 percent for FY 2024-2025. Moreover, this matches the RBI’s own growth projection of 7.2 percent. Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies.

Economy 116

Economy Manufacturing Economics Investing 116

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2024

Trend following Why trend following is unique. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) If you want trend following returns just do trend following. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Research Want small cap exposure? Go microcap. (mailchi.mp) What ideal diversification looks like. (caia.org) AI is becoming table stakes for hedge funds. (alphaarchitect.com) European investors still prefer dividends over buybacks.

Portfolio 287

Portfolio 287

Speaker: Hilary Akhaabi, PhD - Founder, Chief Financial & Operations Officer at Go Africa Global

In the fast-paced world of corporate finance, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for sustainable growth and profitability. This exclusive webinar with leading expert Hilary Akhaabi, PhD, will teach you practical ways to navigate complex financial landscapes and enhance your company's revenue management capabilities. Whether you're aiming to refine your financial strategies or seeking innovative solutions to drive performance, this new session is for you!

Management

Alpha Architect

OCTOBER 11, 2024

Because the Sahm rule focuses solely on the unemployment rate, caution is warranted before assuming it is signaling a recession. The Sahm Rule as a Recession Indicator was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 22, 2024

The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years (just 1% after inflation): These are their baseline assumptions and they offer a range o.

Marketing 129

Marketing Marketing 129

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2024

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

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Sales 122