A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

A reader asks: My job is to run a concentrated 20 company portfolio (all listed companies, buy and hold, long term horizon etc.). I get a base salary and a bonus for performance. So a good amount of my annual earnings are tied to the performance of the companies I pick. I also have a small personal investment account. My question is around how I should think about investing this – should I use the fact that I spend.

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

By Ryan Detrick, Chief Marketing Strategist We’ve been hearing many of the same myths over and over, yet we don’t think they are the big worry that the media and many make them out to be. These are legitimate concerns and have many investors worried, but we think the chances of them becoming larger issues are smaller than many expect. We are going myth busting today and here are seven of the biggest ones we’re targeting.

Economics 144

Economics Retail Economy Government 144

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Before your week ends and you head out for door, I had to share a new paper from St. Louis Fed. The title: Can Economists Predict Recessions? Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of

Economy 298

Economy Banking Economics 298

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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Valuation Investments Investing Marketing 306

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 299

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 24, 2023

Here are some things I believe about investing. 1. I believe simple beats complex. The problem is simple is much harder to implement because complex will always sound more intelligent and appealing. 2. I believe the timing of buy or sell decisions matters less than your holding period. Picking tops and bottoms is for the lucky and the liars. Patiently holding onto your investments is more important for most investors than.

Investments 145

Investments Investing 145

Alpha Architect

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

The correlation between stocks and bonds should be a critical component of any asset allocation decision, as it impacts not only the overall risk of a diversified multi-asset class portfolio but also the risk premia one should expect to receive for taking risk in different asset classes. The problem for investors is that the correlation between stocks and bonds fluctuates extensively across time and economic regimes.

Asset Allocation 137

Asset Allocation Assets Economics Portfolio 137

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Kristen Oliveri wrote this at the new Crain Currency – a magazine covering family offices and wealth management – yesterday afternoon: Enter Future Proof: a wealth management festival that’s decided to shake things up. Founders Josh Brown and Matt Middleton of Ritholtz Wealth Management knew the industry was due for some change, so they boldly decided to lead the way.

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Wealth Management Management 220

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. (abnormalreturns.com) The return on hassle is a real thing. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. (morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. (ritholtz.com) The rise in real interest rates is stunning. (econbrowser.com) How retirement can open you up to new possibilities.

Math 299

Math Retirement Sales Marketing 299

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

In the mid-20th century, the first phone call for a person who needed guidance on saving or planning for retirement was likely to be to a stockbroker or a mutual fund or insurance salesperson. But while some of these salespeople may have certainly been able to provide sound advice, there was really no way at that time for a consumer to know which among the many brokers and agents out there were actually capable of giving true and sound advice that would help them reach their goals.

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CFP Financial Planning Planning Certification 245

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

Jeremy Grantham was on The Compound and Friends with Michael and Josh last week talking bubbles. [link] says real estate is a global bubble and prices should fall 30% or so. I partially agree and partially disagree with Grantham here. I continue to believe the U.S. housing market is not in a bubble. Is the housing market broken in many way.

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Marketing Marketing 144

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

The ninth-annual event featured 105 awards presented to 84 companies and individuals from a pool of 225 finalists.

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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

Planning

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 9, 2023

This week, we speak with Jon McAuliffe , who is co-founder and chief investment officer at the Voleon Group , heading the firm’s investment strategy, research, and development. Previously, he developed and managed statistical arbitrage trading strategies at D.E.Shaw. McAuliffe has a unique track record of successful innovation applying statistical methods to real-life prediction problems, particularly in the financial markets.

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Engineering Management Portfolio Assets 325

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 23, 2023

We did an astonishing amount of new content this week after being gone last week at the Future Proof event. Getting back in the saddle felt good, especially considering the amazing guests we had. Below is a link to the live stream we did with Zeke Faux, whose new book “Number Go Up” is packed with wild and hilarious stories about rise and fall of the crypto bubble.

Numbers 189

Numbers 189

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Trend following Trend following ignore narratives. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How trend following can help diversify a portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) ESG Green investing strategies should be lower risk. (alphaarchitect.com) ESG leaders have been outperforming the market. (bloomberg.com) Behavior How scarcity affects decision making. (sciencedaily.com) The marshmallow effect and investment performance.

Banking 289

Banking Portfolio Investments Investing 289

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Financial advisory clients are routinely concerned about lurking threats to their hard-earned wealth in the form of a large unforeseen judgment on a liability claim. While asset protection is a popular planning topic for High-Net-Worth (HNW) and ultra-high-net-worth clients, those who are not HNW are susceptible to the same threats to wealth. However, while some protection options come with a high cost (that might not be practical for non-HNW clients), asset protection can come in many forms, so

Education 245

Education Assets Clients Estate Planning 245

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Kerala is a coastal state in India with a large fishing industry. Beginning in 1997, mobile phones were introduced to the region. By 2001 more than 60% of the fishers and traders were using phones to coordinate sales and set prices for the fish. Robert Jensen used data from this market in a research paper called The Digital Provide to show how the addition of more information impacted fish prices in the marketplace.

Sales 144

Sales Marketing Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for August today. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the August 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 136

Sales Marketing Marketing 136

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

Economy 317

Economy 317

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

We had Rob Arnott on The Compound and Friends this week live at Future Proof! We discussed lessons from the tech bubble, smart beta, big tech valuations, Tesla and Nvidia, how AI might impact markets and the economy, and much more! You can watch the new TCAF below or listen as a podcast. Podcast version: And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait.

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Valuation Economy Marketing Marketing 177

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 10, 2023

Also on the site Public predictions are exhausting. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How investors should re-think about their bond allocations. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.' (capitalallocators.com) How investors should think about their bond allocations. (blog.validea.com) How an inverted yield curve affects stock and bond market returns.

Wealth Management 290

Wealth Management Retirement Management Investments 290

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

When an advisor runs their own solo advisory firm, their capacity to meet with current and prospective clients is limited to the extent that they are also responsible for all of the non-client-facing tasks of running their firm. Which may not be a serious limitation when they are just starting out and don’t have a lot of clients to serve, but as the firm grows, they will eventually run out of time available for working with clients – at which point, it becomes necessary to decide whe

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Clients Planning Financial Planning 245

A Wealth of Common Sense

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

The Federal Reserve has tracked household balance sheet data going back to 1952. Each quarter they provide details on total financial assets and liabilities for households and nonprofit organizations. This data doesn’t tell us where the economy is heading but it can help understand how Americans are generally positioned for whatever happens next.

Nonprofit 143

Nonprofit Economy Assets 143

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 1, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economy 136

Economy Marketing Marketing 136

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

I have been watching various sentiment polls and Right/Wrong Track questionnaires with detached bemusement. Bemused because they are so silly, and detached because I know I can’t change human nature. What I can do is share a few modest insights; hopefully, these will allow you to gain a fresh perspective you might not have otherwise considered or perhaps even garner a better understanding of what is happening right here and now.

Government 306

Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Rob Arnott, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss lessons from the tech bubble, smart beta, big tech valuations, Tesla and Nvidia, how AI might impact markets and the economy, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Marketing 177

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 177

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise. (frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. (hunterwalk.com) Fund management How securities lending works. (morningstar.com) A new ETF looks to generate income from selling daily options. (reuters.com) Apple Insights from this week's big Apple event.

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Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 288