Advisor Perspectives
JANUARY 17, 2024
I asked our authors and guest contributors the following question: Given the availability of spot bitcoin ETFs, would you recommend them (or any other cryptocurrency allocation) to your clients?
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 12, 2024
Bernie Sanders was railing against wealth inequality again last week: The rich do control most of the financial assets in this country. The top 10% owns close to 90% of the stock market in the U.S. Most of the income gains in the past 40 years or so have gone to the wealthy. That’s not great. But the idea that two-thirds of all Americans cannot cover an emergency expense simply doesn’t hold up to the facts.
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The Irrelevant Investor
JANUARY 19, 2024
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high today. It hasn’t done that since the first trading day of 2022. That’s 512 trading days and 747 calendar days. Just over two years. By historical standards, that wasn’t so bad. It didn’t feel great, but a two-year bear market is as normal as a blizzard in the northeast. They’ve happened before.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 8, 2024
What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random. Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” I find it very useful as an investor to be able to see both sides of the bull-bear debate.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 21, 2024
Top clicks this week On the importance of time when it comes to compounding. (humbledollar.com) How to use AI to do fundamental company analysis. (howardlindzon.com) How to use a negative checklist. (novelinvestor.com) Where are real interest rates going to settle? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) You can only control your own behavior. (creativeplanning.com) There's no magic in personal finance, but there are some surprising hacks.
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Advisor Perspectives
JANUARY 22, 2024
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 21st straight month in December as the LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the U.S. economy. The index inched down 0.1% from last month to 103.1, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 26, 2024
As millennials reach middle age (hand up), prepare yourself for a wave of 1990s nostalgia. Remember MTV? Remember life before smartphones and social media? Remember rap groups? Remember life before everyone was forced to care about politics? Remember Saved by the Bell? Remember going to Blockbuster on a Friday night to pick out a movie? Finance people also have an affinity for the 1990s economy.
Alpha Architect
JANUARY 26, 2024
For investors that use trend-following strategies, Avramov, Kaplanski, and Subrhmanyam provided new evidence supporting momentum strategies and showed that the distance between short- and longer-term momentum signals provides additional explanatory power in the cross-section of equity returns. Moving Average Distance and Time-Series Momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 2, 2024
I am popping out of book leave to share this single data point that snuck out over the holidays: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators for November 2023. I like the SCI – its broad, consistent, and does not operate with too big of a lag. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 25 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 8.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 23, 2024
Research How to model private credit returns, per AQR. (institutionalinvestor.com) Another example showing the impact of screening out negative momentum stocks with lottery-like characteristics. (alphaarchitect.com) How to build a better low vol strategy. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) How smartphones have affected the transmission of investor sentiment. (papers.ssrn.com) Bloomberg has built an AI tool to summarize earnings calls.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 22, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. It is not unusually to get a small increase after the holidays; however, inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
Discipline Funds
JANUARY 22, 2024
There was a viral video over the weekend from a young lady complaining about having to go to work. The basic gist of the video was that work is a waste of time and stops people from doing things they’d actually want to do. This might be a long-ish post, but it’s deeply intertwined in economics, life and discipline so grab a coffee or click that exit button depending on whether you’re in the mood to listen to an old man rant. 1 When I visited Japan for the first time 10 years ag
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 2, 2024
2023 was a good year for the stock market. Bad years in the stock market are typically followed by good years (but not always): The obvious follow-up here is: What happens after good years? Or how often do we see good years followed by good years? There are, of course, bad years that follow good years, just like there are good years that follow bad years.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Alpha Architect
JANUARY 12, 2024
The risk-based explanation provided by a peer-based review is a necessary ingredient for considering investment, but it is not a sufficient ingredient. Peer-Reviewed Theory and Expected Stock Returns was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 31, 2024
At the Money: Forecasting Recessions with Claudia Sahm (January 31, 2024 ) Investors don’t like recessions. But how can they tell if one’s coming? There’s an indicator for that. It’s called the “Sahm Rule,” named for economist Claudia Sahm. In this episode, we discuss how to use labor data to forecast recessions.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 7, 2024
Top clicks this week Some of the best charts of 2023. (entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't get caught sitting in cash in 2024. (allstarcharts.com) How major asset classes performed in December 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Good years tend to cluster for the stock market.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 2, 2024
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion. The November figure is 11.3 percent above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Advisor Perspectives
JANUARY 19, 2024
Consumer sentiment soared in January to its highest level since July 2021, according to the preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The index came in at 78.8, up 9.1 (13.1%) from the December final. The latest reading was above the forecast of 70.0.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 14, 2024
Bonds have had a rough go at it these past few years. 2021 was a down year. 2022 was the worst year in history for bonds. 2023 was better although rates were so volatile that the ride certainty wasn’t much fun to be on. In the 10 years ending 2023, 10 year Treasury bonds had an annual return of just 1.5%. The annual inflation rate over that same time frame was 2.8%, meaning you lost money on a real basis in the benc.
Alpha Architect
JANUARY 5, 2024
Crowded equity positions in anomalies remain and have significant impacts in terms of risk and return dynamics. Crowded Trades Increase Crash Risks was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 12, 2024
 This week, we speak with Cathy Marcus , co-chief executive officer and global chief operating officer of PGIM Real Estate , which manages over $200 billion in assets. As co-CEO, Marcus develops and leads the company’s global strategy; as global COO, she is responsible for overseeing business and investment operations globally. She is also co-chair of the board of directors of RealAssetX , PGIM Real Estate’s innovation lab aimed at accelerating advancement in the real assets industry.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 14, 2024
Top clicks this week Six reasons to bullish. Six reasons to be bearish. (ritholtz.com) The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade. (visualcapitalist.com) 34 hard-earned lessons including 'People are busy, distracted, and tired. Always follow up.' (thefp.com) Stock markets around the world are at or near their highs. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Good luck trying to pick the best performing asset class on a year-by-year basis.
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 29, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week. Inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 26th, inventory was at 503 thousand (7-day average), compared to 506 thousand the prior week.
Wealthfront
JANUARY 25, 2024
In planning your investment strategy for 2024 and beyond, there are wise principles to keep in mind: While no one can predict how market prices will move in any particular period, there are time-tested general rules that can put the odds of success squarely in your favor. In this letter we will offer some simple […] The post Burt Malkiel & Alex Michalka’s Insights for Investors in 2024 appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.
A Wealth of Common Sense
JANUARY 18, 2024
A reader asks: Ben, I love reading your work. Stocks, bonds, and cash are the categories to compare but it hit me as a “boomer” retired, what about home ownership as a comparison? Stay warm! This question was in response to my recent piece on the historical returns for stocks, bonds and cash: There are typically a fair number of requests for other asset classes whenever I post this kind of data.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Alpha Architect
JANUARY 29, 2024
The paper aims to investigate whether experienced institutional portfolio managers (PMs) exhibit behavioral biases in their decision-making processes, specifically focusing on the selling decisions. The Smart Money Can Buy Stocks, but They Can’t Sell Them was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
JANUARY 10, 2024
At The Money: David Dunning professor of psychology at the University of Michigan ( Go Blue! ) (January 10, 2024) Investor incompetence might play a larger role in poor performance than you think. That’s thanks to a phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: David Dunning is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan.
Abnormal Returns
JANUARY 29, 2024
Private equity Dividend recaps are back on the table for private equity. (axios.com) When a company raises debt, and interest rates rise, trouble ensues. (adweek.com) The legal case for opening up private equity to the masses. (papers.ssrn.com) The private equity industry doesn't love academic research about its performance. (institutionalinvestor.com) Gambling Americans are going to the casino.
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