Calculated Risk
JUNE 10, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 23.8% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 7th, inventory was at 612 thousand (7-day average), compared to 605 thousand the prior week.
The Big Picture
JUNE 9, 2024
@TBPInvictus here. About a decade or so ago, the city of Seattle undertook to raise its minimum wage, over time, to $15/hour. (Massive credit to my friend Nick Hanauer for his efforts to make that happen.) What followed in the immediate aftermath of both the announcement and implementation was nothing less than a apocalyptic, collective head explosion on the right about the devastating effects the increase would have, particularly in the food services sector: However, there’s little doubt that t
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Wealth Management
JUNE 4, 2024
The tenth annual WealthManagement.com Industry Awards ceremony will be held in New York City on Sept. 5.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 16, 2024
Also on the site Father time is undefeated: on the impact of cognitive decline on financial outcomes. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week The S&P 500 is getting three new members. (reuters.com) We are in a 'bear market for diversification.' (thinkadvisor.com) The stock market is increasingly concentrated. Should you be worried? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) More investors are facing up to the problem with illiquid alternatives.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 21, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that affluent Americans believe they need an average of $5.5 million in assets to both retire and pass on a legacy interest (though many have yet to establish an estate plan), according to a recent survey. At the same time, they also overwhelmingly recognize the value of financial advisors , not only for increasing their wealth beyond what they could have achieved on thei
Calculated Risk
JUNE 4, 2024
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of April , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 24, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 28.4% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 21st, inventory was at 634 thousand (7-day average), compared to 621 thousand the prior week.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 26, 2024
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 for the month , as more firms reported a decrease in billings in May than in April. In addition, there is increasing softness in the pipeline of new work coming into firms.
The Big Picture
JUNE 6, 2024
I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Typically, it takes years before sufficient data amasses to prove how wrong these people were.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 7, 2024
The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. The participation rate and employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%. Construction employment increased 21 thousand and is now 613 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
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Wealth Management
JUNE 18, 2024
The report shows advisor interest in alternative investments even as some struggle with implementation, according to CAIA Managing Director Aaron Filbeck.
The Big Picture
JUNE 17, 2024
A quick break from book authorship to share a fascinating set of data and charts, via Sam Ro. In his weekly missive, Sam points to some amazing charts from Global Financial Data. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.
Wealth Management
JUNE 12, 2024
Four key considerations for advisors regarding Medicare.
Wealth Management
JUNE 21, 2024
What wealth advisors need to know about taxing unrealized gains.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Wealth Management
JUNE 17, 2024
How an $8,000 marketing investment turned into a $650,000 risk.
Wealth Management
JUNE 11, 2024
Explaining the fallacy of a free dividend can overcome both investor ignorance and their biases.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 21, 2024
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.7% in May as Median Sales Price Reached Record High of $419,300 Existing-home sales slightly declined in May as the median sales price climbed to a record high, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. In the four major U.S. regions, sales slid month-over-month in the South but were unchanged in the Northeast, Midwest and West.
The Big Picture
JUNE 13, 2024
@TBPInvictus here A few days ago, Barry and I detailed how unscrupulous bad actors had taken Not Seasonally Adjusted data to falsely claim that California’s new $20/hour minimum wage had cost the state almost 10,000 quick-serve restaurant (QSR) jobs. I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. However, BLS only offers the series without seasonal adjustment; this makes a very meaningful difference.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 9, 2024
Top clicks this week The best time to prepare for a bear market is before it begins. (awealthofcommonsense.com) A review of major asset class performance in May 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Why you shouldn't be worried about index funds just yet. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) The current bull market is mid. (tker.co) The market has always been rigged, just not in the way you think.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 30, 2024
Also on the site Some reasons why being online is so exhausting these days. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Mean reversion happens in the stock market. Good luck trying to time it. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The degenerate economy is booming. (howardlindzon.com) Stop dissing standard deviation as a risk measure. (morningstar.com) Holding cash is comfortable right now, too comfortable.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 27, 2024
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered reductions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 in May.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 19, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 14, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Wealth Management
JUNE 17, 2024
Cox, a former investment analyst at eToro, will be Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first market expert fully dedicated to its advisors.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 30, 2024
Markets Entertainment stocks are struggling YTD. (hollywoodreporter.com) Lumber prices are struggling YTD. (wsj.com) Strategy Europe's stock market has badly lagged the U.S. How much longer can it last? (awealthofcommonsense.com) There's no getting around it, investing is complicated. (tker.co) Don't forget, stocks are real assets. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Policy The Supreme Court has overturned the Chevron doctrine.
Wealth Management
JUNE 5, 2024
BlackRock, Fidelity Investments, Franklin Templeton and State Street will collaborate with the technology provider more than ever before to personalize creation of investment portfolios.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 6, 2024
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.5% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Wealth Management
JUNE 6, 2024
Create a brand focused on you by being relatable and authentic helps gain clients.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 18, 2024
Markets Market breadth is not great. (sherwood.news) The Magnificent Seven also stand out for their stock buybacks. (visualcapitalist.com) Alternatives The Bogle Effect has not come for alternative asset classes. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Pension funds could skip on the alternatives and just invest in low-cost index investments. (crr.bc.edu) Strategy The many ways in which investing is NOT like poker.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 10, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.
Wealth Management
JUNE 18, 2024
James McDonald was taken into custody in Port Orchard, Wash. and will face federal charges in Los Angeles. He is accused of losing millions in client funds and fled an SEC subpoena in 2021.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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