A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 17, 2023
I saw a chart this week from Bank of America that more or less sums up my entire investment philosophy: In the long run, stock prices go up. I view the stock market as a way to invest in innovation, profits, progress and people waking up in the morning looking to better their current situation. While I love the fact that this chart illustrates my long-term philosophy it’s a bit misleading.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 20, 2023
Investors should embrace a genuine long-term perspective, extending their time horizons to at least 20 to 30 years. The traditional notion of long-term investing (five to 10 years) may fall short of realizing the full benefits of long-term strategies.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 23, 2023
Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is up from 3.7% a year ago (October 2022).
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 10, 2023
The claims of superior risk-adjusted performance by the PE industry are exaggerated. Given their lack of liquidity, opaqueness, and greater use of leverage, it seems logical that investors should demand something like a 3-4% IRR premium. Yet, there is no evidence that the industry overall has been able to deliver that. The Performance of Major Private Equity/LBO Firms was originally published at Alpha Architect.
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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 16, 2023
Over at Alphaville , Robin Wigglesworth looks at whether ‘Greedflation’ (aka price-gouging) meaningfully contributed to Eurozone inflation. Specifically, Bank of England research suggests that while they “find no evidence of a rise in overall profits in the UK” they did notice that “companies in the oil, gas and mining sectors have bucked the trend” with “some companies… much more profitable than others.”1 I was pretty skeptical about Greedflation initia
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Carson Wealth
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance In today’s world it’s fair to say that most reasonable people believe they are going to live a long life. And when you live a long life, it’s also fair to say that sooner or later, we’re going to need some form of care. Seven out of 10 people will eventually require long-term care in their lifetime. 1 How expensive that care is depends on where you live.
Meb Faber Research
NOVEMBER 8, 2023
“He was a U.S.-class smooth politician, which is the only way you’re going to survive in that job. It has nothing to do with investing.” That’s how Institutional Investor recently described a former CIO of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, also known as CalPERS. The description is especially interesting when considering that the “I” […] The post Should CalPERS Fire Everyone And Just Buy Some ETFs?
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 9, 2023
A reader asks: Can you please explain why financial media personnel keep saying the 60/40 is dead but they are not saying target date funds are dead? Last year was one of the worst years ever for a 60/40 portfolio of U.S. stocks and bonds. These are the 10 worst calendar year returns for a portfolio comprising the S&P 500 and 10 year Treasuries going back to 1928: By my calculations, 2022 was the third worst year for.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 6, 2023
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. This is the latest in the year that inventory was still increasing! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of November 3rd, inventory was at 567 thousand (7-day average), compared to 563 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 15.5%.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 22, 2023
We spend way too much time trying to predict the future (especially this time of year). Rather than engage in futility, let’s look at the coincident indexes in all 50 states over the past 3 months, via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (October 2023). Note: I have been occasionally eyeballing this map since 2008 , and it does a good job of showing the overall trend of the economy (on an obvious lag).
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 19, 2023
Also on the site this week Over a lifetime, you can accumulate a lot of stuff. The chances are nobody wants any of it. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Why it's a great time to be an investor. (blog.validea.com) Some behavioral hacks to prevent you from blowing up your portfolio. (ritholtz.com) What it going to happen to all those assets in money market fund when yields eventually fall?
Carson Wealth
NOVEMBER 2, 2023
By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance You’re turning 65 this year and Medicare is on your mind. Medicare is a subset of Social Security and run by the Social Security Administration. In my experience, it may be almost as complicated as the Internal Revenue Code! With that said, let’s answer some common questions about Medicare to help you get started.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 9, 2023
New York-based Arch, which aims to solve for the workflow and data problems behind alternative investments, has received funding from Focus Financial Partners, the founders of Vanilla and Altruist, and others.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 24, 2023
Personal finance was my first love in the money world. I was a saver before I ever knew what investing even was. Yet my relationship with personal finance has evolved as I’ve aged and changed my habits. Many of the personal finance rules written in stone will always apply. Live below your means. Pay yourself first. Stay out of credit card debt.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 24, 2023
Covered calls implemented to deliver higher derivative income should be expected to have (1) lower total returns, (2) higher tax realizations along the path, and (3) a more negatively skewed return profile. Investors who allocate to these strategies for their income alone, without accounting for these other considerations, might have made a devil’s bargain Focus on Income Can Undermine Returns: The Case of Covered Calls was originally published at Alpha Architect.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 15, 2023
Markets screamed higher yesterday after a benign CPI report showed a 0.0% monthly price increase and inflation falling to 3.2% year over year. After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. It was a classic fear-driven error, a combination of bad market timing and poor impulse control.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 4, 2023
EVs The EV business has hit a speed bump. (theverge.com) Tesla ($TSLA) has an Elon Musk problem. (lefsetz.com) EVs have an affordability problem. (businessinsider.com) Solid state batteries will change the EV equation. (axios.com) Transport Just how quickly can the shipping industry green itself? (nytimes.com) Railroad companies have been lax in maintaining bridges.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. Leisure and hospitality gained 19 thousand jobs in October. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since Februa
Trade Brains
NOVEMBER 9, 2023
BoB World App Scam : The RBI raised a red flag against the Bank of Baroda (BoB) and has suspended their mobile app ‘BoB World’ from onboarding new clients because of a 22 lakh fraud affecting 362 customers. Nearly six customers have lost around Rs. 1.1 lakh each, whereas one lost almost Rs. 1.77 lakh, and an agent stole over Rs. 3.96 lakh. So, what in the world is ‘BoB World’?
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 19, 2023
The S&P 500 last hit a new all-time high on January 3, 2022. The market has been slowly but surely working its way back to new highs but we’ve been underwater for nearly two years now: The market is within spitting distance of new highs but stocks have gone nowhere for almost two years. We’re a little less than four years into the 2020s and half of those years have seen no new highs but there have already.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 17, 2023
When a small subset of companies makes up a large portion of a portfolio, for better or worse their returns will have a greater impact on overall portfolio results. The Magnificent Seven was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 6, 2023
Source: Chartr We talked about this 2 weeks ago , but the nation missed a fantastic opportunity to refinance all of the outstanding US debt at much lower levels. Every corporate debt issuer and homeowner in America refinanced at lower rates — except for Uncle Sam. If you were in Congress from 2015-2021, you are the reason why HALF of the projected federal debt will soon be interest payments.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 26, 2023
Top clicks this week Cullen Roche, "The worst narrative in finance is this idea that stocks generate 10%+." (disciplinefunds.com) Why you should believe in stocks for the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) THIS is the most important decision you will make in life. (safalniveshak.com) The 10 best books of 2023 including 'The Bathysphere Book: Effects of the Luminous Ocean Depths,’ by Brad Fox.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 6, 2023
From the Federal Reserve: The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The October 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2023.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 20, 2023
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 19th consecutive month in October as the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The index dropped 0.8% from last month to 103.9, the index's lowest reading since May 2020.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
Here’s a conversation between me and a hypothetical stock market investors who worries a lot: Investor: The S&P 500 is the only game in town to invest in but I’m worried because the valuations are so high and all of the gains are coming from a handful of stocks. Me: If you think the large cap U.S. stocks are overvalued you could always invest in small caps, value stocks or foreign shares.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
The timelier adoption of new technology and the higher likelihood of large-scale technology adoption make the risk associated with technological innovation more systematic, which in turn increases returns required by investors for technology spillover recipients. Technology Spillover Impacts Stock Returns was originally published at Alpha Architect.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 1, 2023
Everybody is waiting with baited breath for today’s 2:30 announcement about the rates, but let me spare you the suspense: They are done with rate hikes this cycle. The next change in rates is more likely to be down than up. At least, if Powell & Company truly had a handle on what has been driving inflation for the past few years, that would be their position.
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