The Big Picture
MAY 2, 2024
The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.
Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the February bottom, and almost above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week.
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Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2024
Does a higher cash rate tide lift, hurt or have no significant impact on all asset returns?
Abnormal Returns
MAY 5, 2024
Top clicks this week Widen your investing lens. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why the stock market usually goes up. (humbledollar.com) The best investors are running their own race. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) How stocks, bonds and cash have performed over the past 30 years. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How major asset classes performed in April 2024.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Nerd's Eye View
MAY 29, 2024
Small business owners often treat their businesses not only as their source of income during their working years, but also as an asset that can be sold to fund their retirement. And while many businesses can build up substantial value over the years, the downside is that, when that value is realized upon the sale of the business, a large amount of it is treated as taxable income.
The Big Picture
MAY 9, 2024
Nestled in between lip-sync dancers and fashion influencers, financial fraud lurks on TikTok. At least one person1 has noticed the risks to young consumers of social media: Since August 2020, @TikTokInvestors has been curating the most outrageous money-losing and dangerous videos culled from the “financial experts” at TikTok. The advice ranges from wrong to risky to criminal: -401ks?
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Calculated Risk
MAY 6, 2024
Fannie reported results for Q1 2024. Here is some information on single-family Real Estate Owned (REOs). Fannie Mae reported the number of REOs decreased to 7,791 at the end of Q1 2024, down 5% from 8,403 at the end of the previous quarter, and down 9% year-over-year from Q1 2023. For Fannie, this is down 95% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010.
Calculated Risk
MAY 20, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.7% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 17.0% from the February bottom, and above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 17th, inventory was at 578 thousand (7-day average), compared to 568 thousand the prior week.
Calculated Risk
MAY 7, 2024
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in April Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease.
The Big Picture
MAY 16, 2024
The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Calculated Risk
MAY 3, 2024
The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. The employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. Construction employment increased 9 thousand and is now 604 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
Wealth Management
MAY 17, 2024
The introduction of bitcoin ETFs is fueling increased advisor engagement with digital assets, according to a Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals survey.
Calculated Risk
MAY 31, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through April 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.5% year-over-year in April, down from 5.6% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.6% YoY in April , down from 5.8% in March, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Calculated Risk
MAY 13, 2024
This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Calculated Risk
MAY 22, 2024
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 1.9% in April Existing-home sales receded in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions posted month-over-month declines. Year-over-year, sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – slid 1.9% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
A focus on behavioral science and emotional intelligence will be key for advisors who wish to remain relevant in the coming years.
Calculated Risk
MAY 30, 2024
The DOL reported : In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 215,000 to 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.
Calculated Risk
MAY 29, 2024
The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 2024: Reports from 4,568 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) report aggregate net income of $64.2 billion in first quarter 2024, an increase of $28.4 billion (79.5 percent) from the prior quarter. A large decline in noninterest expense because of several substantial, non-recurring items recognized by large banks in the prior quarter, as well as higher noninterest income and lo
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Calculated Risk
MAY 28, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.5% year-over-year in March; FHFA: House Prices Increased 0.1% in March, up 6.6% YoY Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3-month average of January, February and March closing prices). March closing prices include some contracts signed in November, so there is a significant lag to this data.
Wealth Management
MAY 13, 2024
Speakers at Wealth Management EDGE at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla., discuss how investing strategies, including SMAs and how inflation and the Fed are impacting investing.
Calculated Risk
MAY 2, 2024
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.3% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
Calculated Risk
MAY 15, 2024
Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April2024.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Wealth Management
MAY 1, 2024
The Federal Trade Commission's move to outlaw these clauses in contracts could affect millions of Americans. But litigation against the ban is already in motion.
Wealth Management
MAY 14, 2024
Updated throughout Wealth Management EDGE, this live blog is focused on WealthStack.
Wealth Management
MAY 1, 2024
Guidelines for taking a deeper look at the ways your firm is leveraging each system and how they all work together.
Calculated Risk
MAY 6, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 13.3% from the February bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 3rd, inventory was at 560 thousand (7-day average), compared to 556 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Wealth Management
MAY 1, 2024
If the SEC approves mutual fund/ETF dual shares, it might bring a big pivot for the RIA industry.
Calculated Risk
MAY 24, 2024
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 May The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance from the previous week and positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 May. 12-18 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 67.4% (+0.2%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.11 (+2.6%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.93 (+2.8%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy r
Wealth Management
MAY 21, 2024
The acquisitions of Wealth Management Solutions and Autumn Wind Asset Management represent Modern Wealth’s seventh and eighth transactions and bring its assets to over $3.7 billion.
Calculated Risk
MAY 14, 2024
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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