The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $163.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.8 trillion. Household debt increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2024.
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Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The full extent of the benefits to real estate investment of lower rates will also depend on whether the Fed sticks a soft landing.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
Also on the site How much would you pay for a house you couldn't insure? (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Another star manager, another disaster for investors. (awealthofcommonsense.com) You're not a billionaire. Stop trying to invest like one. (axios.com) The big index fund managers have a problem on their hands. (humbledollar.com) Why you likely don't need to focus on dividend paying stocks.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
Over the last 60 years, the top Federal marginal tax bracket has steadily decreased from over 90% in the 1950s and 60s to 'just' 37% today. However, with the national debt expanding rapidly, observers of U.S. tax policy are predicting that Congress will inevitably be forced to again increase tax rates in order to raise revenue and balance the national budget – and that the current regime of relatively low tax rates will prove to be a temporary phenomenon.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7 It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period.
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Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gamified trading apps and niche ETFs have a cost that’s harder to spot but is little different from the damage inflicted on portfolios by high fees.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 16, 2024
GV (formerly Google Ventures) led the funding round alongside Citi Ventures, Outpost Ventures, 53 Stations and Firebolt Ventures.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 15, 2024
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. It is possible the FOMC will cut by 50bp. Currently market participants are split evenly between a 25bp and a 50bp cut this week. Market participants are also pricing in a total of 75bp in cuts by the November meeting, and between 100bp to 125bp in cuts by December.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in August were above expectations and starts in June and July were revised slightly. A solid report. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 14, 2024
The key reports this week are August Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Barry Gilbert, portfolio manager with the Carson Group, talks about why the firm is risk-on right now, why it prefers ETFs over mutual funds and what’s different about this market cycle.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024
The changing rate environment should create a more attractive exit environment for existing private equity investments, as well as fuel new acquisitions.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Don’t let the uncertainty about future tax policy interfere with taking action to meet your client’s goals.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 19, 2024
Marty’s Zweig’s Trading rules 1) The trend is your friend; don’t fight the tape hard return; 2) Let profits run take losses quickly; 3) If you buy for a reason and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid then sell 4) if the values don’t make sense then don’t participate (2 + 2 = 4) 5) The cheap get cheaper the deer get deer; 6) Don’t fight the Fed (less valid than #1); 7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust; 8) Adapt to change; 9) Don’t let your
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
A new study finds that the younger demographic needs education on charitable giving tools.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
The impact lower rates are likely to have on private credit funds goes beyond an expected decline in yields.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 13, 2024
Additional services can justify fees to clients, but RIA owners must also prove those services benefit their bottom lines.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024
Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q2 Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" (collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. (morningstar.com) Paying for stuff is getting complicated. (sherwood.news) Buying the dip isn't easy, or particularly profitable.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
F2 Strategy's Doug Fritz discusses how the role of the CRM has evolved.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Catching Up: New Home Sales Increased to 739,000 Annual Rate in July Brief excerpt: I'm back from Africa! I’ll be catching up on recent data over the next few days, and I’ll post some photos / videos from my trip. Last week the Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 739 thousand.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 13, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2024 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-September provides a snapshot of the current housing market. I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale ! Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s August 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were down 0.9% year-over-year in August.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2024
Also on the site The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. In "You Weren't Supposed to See That" he takes a look back. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week On the strange math of stock returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Investors have won the war on fees. Then there's risk. (wealthmanagement.com) Supplementing with magnesium?
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
The collaboration brings together the tax management technology of Vestmark with the highly scalable model construction capabilities of BlackRock.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 10, 2024
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises 3% in August The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 2.9% in August to 220.4 (2000=100) from the revised July reading of 214.2. Over the month, commercial planning expanded 1.9% and institutional planning improved 5.7%. “Owners and developers continued to prime the planning queue in August, ahead of next year’s anticipated stronger market conditions,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasti
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 17, 2024
Many advisors may view AI as a silver bullet, one that will replace their back-office staff. But panelists at the Future Proof Festival this week said it's more of an optimizer.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 20, 2024
From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 September The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 September. 8-14 September 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 66.6% (-1.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.05 (+0.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$107.86 (-1.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-wee
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 15, 2024
Also on the site Elder financial fraud is only going up. Maybe AI can help. (abnormalreturns.com) Noted personal finance writer Jonathan Clements is dying. He still has plenty left to teach us. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How the new AirPod Pros 2 could upend the hearing aid industry. (cnbc.com) Sometimes things really are different this time.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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