The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" (collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. (morningstar.com) Paying for stuff is getting complicated. (sherwood.news) Buying the dip isn't easy, or particularly profitable.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
I enjoy slicing and dicing historical stock market returns. I’m not naive enough to assume this helps predict the future. However, studying the past can provide a baseline to help set expectations when it comes to risk and a potential range of outcomes. Here’s a different way to look at returns over various time horizons for the S&P 500 going back to 1993: This is how to read this chart: Pick a starting.
Carson Wealth
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Navigating Medicare can be a daunting task, especially with the numerous plans and options available. However, choosing the right Medicare plan is crucial to ensure that you have the coverage you need as you move into retirement. Whether you’re enrolling for the first time or considering a change, these tips will help you choose a plan that fits your healthcare needs and budget. 1: Know the Rules for Medicare Open Enrollment The first step in selecting the right Medicare plan is understand
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $163.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.8 trillion. Household debt increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2024.
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The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 19, 2024
Marty’s Zweig’s Trading rules 1) The trend is your friend; don’t fight the tape hard return; 2) Let profits run take losses quickly; 3) If you buy for a reason and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid then sell 4) if the values don’t make sense then don’t participate (2 + 2 = 4) 5) The cheap get cheaper the deer get deer; 6) Don’t fight the Fed (less valid than #1); 7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust; 8) Adapt to change; 9) Don’t let your
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2024
Also on the site The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. In "You Weren't Supposed to See That" he takes a look back. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week On the strange math of stock returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Investors have won the war on fees. Then there's risk. (wealthmanagement.com) Supplementing with magnesium?
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gallup has a poll that asks Americans what income strata they belong in. The results are relatively stable over the past 20+ years: Most people say middle class while very few people think they are upper class. The Pew Research Center has a new tool that allows you to enter your income and see where it is you fit both nationally and locally. Their numbers show the Gallup poll is right on the money as far as middle-class.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Barry Gilbert, portfolio manager with the Carson Group, talks about why the firm is risk-on right now, why it prefers ETFs over mutual funds and what’s different about this market cycle.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7 It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 17, 2024
Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. She has been published at Bloomberg, New York Magazine, FT, and the NYT. Her new book “ In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work ” just came out this Summer. We discuss how she came up with the idea of a “ Vibecession ” and how it became a popular New York Times guest essay.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2024
Markets The U.S. is in the midst of an 'epic bull market.' (awealthofcommonsense.com) Earnings are the most important driver of stock prices. (tker.co) Consumers American consumers have access to a lot of dry powder., i.e. home equity. (carsongroup.com) There is little sign that American consumers are pulling bak. (sherwood.news) Apple Apple ($AAPL) isn't going to invest in OpenAI.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 8, 2024
Each year since 2011, Gallup has asked people what they think is the best long-term investment: After a brief love affair with gold, real estate has been in the top spot every year since 2013. Stocks are a distant second. So why do we Americans love the housing market so much from an investment perspective? There is something about the American Dream of homeownership combined with the size of the price tag involved for s.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 17, 2024
Many advisors may view AI as a silver bullet, one that will replace their back-office staff. But panelists at the Future Proof Festival this week said it's more of an optimizer.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
The U.S. economy grew at an expected pace during the second quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.99% in Q2 2024, according to the final estimate. The latest estimate is the same as the forecasted 3.0% growth and is a pickup from the Q1 2024 GDP final estimate of 1.6%.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money? Brian Portnoy, Shaping Wealth (September 18, 2024) Can money buy you happiness? How much money is too much? Does wealth offer diminishing returns? In this edition of At the Money, I sit down with Brian Portnoy to explore these questions. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Brian Portnoy is founder and CEO of Shaping Wealth , which helps advisors and their clients to achieve “funded contentment,” and operates as an outsourced Chief Beha
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
Also on the site How much would you pay for a house you couldn't insure? (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Another star manager, another disaster for investors. (awealthofcommonsense.com) You're not a billionaire. Stop trying to invest like one. (axios.com) The big index fund managers have a problem on their hands. (humbledollar.com) Why you likely don't need to focus on dividend paying stocks.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
The bull market of the 1980s and 1990s is the stuff dreams are made of.1 The S&P 500 was up nearly 18% per year over the course of those two decades.2 It’s one of the great bull markets in history. But if we want to get picky, the bull market didn’t truly start until 1982. There were back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82. You had a 17% correction in 1980 along with a near-30% bear market that bottome.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 19, 2024
Inspire Investing will pay $300,000 to settle allegations that its process did not support its claims of using a “data-driven” approach to biblically responsible investing.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.
Alpha Architect
SEPTEMBER 20, 2024
Knowing what economic regime we might be in won’t provide you with the crystal ball allowing you to foresee what geopolitical events will drive markets, whether “black swans” will appear, or identify whatever unexpected events or government policy actions will drive markets. Data-driven Approach to Clustering Similar Macroeconomic Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 19, 2024
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in August to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.2% from the previous month to 100.2, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 15, 2024
Also on the site Elder financial fraud is only going up. Maybe AI can help. (abnormalreturns.com) Noted personal finance writer Jonathan Clements is dying. He still has plenty left to teach us. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How the new AirPod Pros 2 could upend the hearing aid industry. (cnbc.com) Sometimes things really are different this time.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
I bought a Peloton exercise bike during the early days of the pandemic. It’s convenient and the technology is pretty neat.1 But I never would have purchased shares in the company. I have a rule of thumb that anything new that’s fitness-related is a fad. I’ve seen far too many fad diets and fancy exercise equipment or videos come and go over the years.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 11, 2024
For an upfront purchase price of $50 million, the deal brings $47 billion of assets in the emerging and mid-market retirement plan segments and competitive ESOP administration.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in August were above expectations and starts in June and July were revised slightly. A solid report. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).
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