The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" (collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. (morningstar.com) Paying for stuff is getting complicated. (sherwood.news) Buying the dip isn't easy, or particularly profitable.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
Over the last 60 years, the top Federal marginal tax bracket has steadily decreased from over 90% in the 1950s and 60s to 'just' 37% today. However, with the national debt expanding rapidly, observers of U.S. tax policy are predicting that Congress will inevitably be forced to again increase tax rates in order to raise revenue and balance the national budget – and that the current regime of relatively low tax rates will prove to be a temporary phenomenon.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
I enjoy slicing and dicing historical stock market returns. I’m not naive enough to assume this helps predict the future. However, studying the past can provide a baseline to help set expectations when it comes to risk and a potential range of outcomes. Here’s a different way to look at returns over various time horizons for the S&P 500 going back to 1993: This is how to read this chart: Pick a starting.
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It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.
Carson Wealth
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Navigating Medicare can be a daunting task, especially with the numerous plans and options available. However, choosing the right Medicare plan is crucial to ensure that you have the coverage you need as you move into retirement. Whether you’re enrolling for the first time or considering a change, these tips will help you choose a plan that fits your healthcare needs and budget. 1: Know the Rules for Medicare Open Enrollment The first step in selecting the right Medicare plan is understand
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $163.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2024. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $0.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.8 trillion. Household debt increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2024.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
Also on the site How much would you pay for a house you couldn't insure? (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Another star manager, another disaster for investors. (awealthofcommonsense.com) You're not a billionaire. Stop trying to invest like one. (axios.com) The big index fund managers have a problem on their hands. (humbledollar.com) Why you likely don't need to focus on dividend paying stocks.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Starting a new firm can be a nerve-wracking time for an entrepreneurially minded financial advisor, as making the jump involves a significant amount of professional and financial risk. Nonetheless, after a year or 2 in business, some firm owners will find that their plate is becoming full and their available time is shrinking as they balance servicing current clients with marketing for new ones and also possibly managing staff.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gallup has a poll that asks Americans what income strata they belong in. The results are relatively stable over the past 20+ years: Most people say middle class while very few people think they are upper class. The Pew Research Center has a new tool that allows you to enter your income and see where it is you fit both nationally and locally. Their numbers show the Gallup poll is right on the money as far as middle-class.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The full extent of the benefits to real estate investment of lower rates will also depend on whether the Fed sticks a soft landing.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7 It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. She has been published at Bloomberg, New York Magazine, FT, and the NYT. Her new book “ In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work ” just came out this Summer. We discuss how she came up with the idea of a “ Vibecession ” and how it became a popular New York Times guest essay.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2024
Also on the site The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. In "You Weren't Supposed to See That" he takes a look back. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week On the strange math of stock returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Investors have won the war on fees. Then there's risk. (wealthmanagement.com) Supplementing with magnesium?
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 11, 2024
Among all the different types of retirement account beneficiaries, those who are the surviving spouse of the original account owner receive the most preferential tax treatment when it comes to distributing the account's assets after the owner's death. While non-spouse beneficiaries face strict timelines – either starting Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) the year after the original owner's death and stretching them over their remaining life expectancy (if they were considered Eligible
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 8, 2024
Each year since 2011, Gallup has asked people what they think is the best long-term investment: After a brief love affair with gold, real estate has been in the top spot every year since 2013. Stocks are a distant second. So why do we Americans love the housing market so much from an investment perspective? There is something about the American Dream of homeownership combined with the size of the price tag involved for s.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gamified trading apps and niche ETFs have a cost that’s harder to spot but is little different from the damage inflicted on portfolios by high fees.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 18, 2024
At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money? Brian Portnoy, Shaping Wealth (September 18, 2024) Can money buy you happiness? How much money is too much? Does wealth offer diminishing returns? In this edition of At the Money, I sit down with Brian Portnoy to explore these questions. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Brian Portnoy is founder and CEO of Shaping Wealth , which helps advisors and their clients to achieve “funded contentment,” and operates as an outsourced Chief Beha
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2024
Markets The U.S. is in the midst of an 'epic bull market.' (awealthofcommonsense.com) Earnings are the most important driver of stock prices. (tker.co) Consumers American consumers have access to a lot of dry powder., i.e. home equity. (carsongroup.com) There is little sign that American consumers are pulling bak. (sherwood.news) Apple Apple ($AAPL) isn't going to invest in OpenAI.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 13, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the SEC this week fined 4 RIAs for violations of its marketing rule related to their claims that they offered 'conflict-free' financial advice. Which means that while many fee-only RIAs use the reduced conflicts that come with the fee-only model (as opposed to firms that receive compensation from commissions and other sources) as a key marketing talking point, the fact rem
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
The bull market of the 1980s and 1990s is the stuff dreams are made of.1 The S&P 500 was up nearly 18% per year over the course of those two decades.2 It’s one of the great bull markets in history. But if we want to get picky, the bull market didn’t truly start until 1982. There were back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82. You had a 17% correction in 1980 along with a near-30% bear market that bottome.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 16, 2024
GV (formerly Google Ventures) led the funding round alongside Citi Ventures, Outpost Ventures, 53 Stations and Firebolt Ventures.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
I have known Josh for nearly 15 years. Despite his writing in public that entire time, hosting two weekly shows on our YouTube channel , and showing up on CNBC three times a week, you don’t know him. Public persona aside, he is surprisingly private. I know him as well as anyone besides Sprinkles and maybe Batnick. I am going to share three things about Josh that you don’t know.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 15, 2024
Also on the site Elder financial fraud is only going up. Maybe AI can help. (abnormalreturns.com) Noted personal finance writer Jonathan Clements is dying. He still has plenty left to teach us. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How the new AirPod Pros 2 could upend the hearing aid industry. (cnbc.com) Sometimes things really are different this time.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 16, 2024
The business model of many financial advisory firms revolves around serving clients who are able to pay a certain minimum in annual advisory fees, which reflects not only the value that the advisor can provide for the client, but also the amount that the advisor must charge in order to provide the level of deep planning and investment management that higher-net-worth clients expect (while also earning enough profit to make the venture worthwhile).
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
I bought a Peloton exercise bike during the early days of the pandemic. It’s convenient and the technology is pretty neat.1 But I never would have purchased shares in the company. I have a rule of thumb that anything new that’s fitness-related is a fad. I’ve seen far too many fad diets and fancy exercise equipment or videos come and go over the years.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Barry Gilbert, portfolio manager with the Carson Group, talks about why the firm is risk-on right now, why it prefers ETFs over mutual funds and what’s different about this market cycle.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 15, 2024
Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. It is possible the FOMC will cut by 50bp. Currently market participants are split evenly between a 25bp and a 50bp cut this week. Market participants are also pricing in a total of 75bp in cuts by the November meeting, and between 100bp to 125bp in cuts by December.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 19, 2024
Now THAT’S a financial conference! If you are reading this on the 19th, I may be still asleep. I am writing this on my flight home, scheduled to land at midnight Wednesday; I was alcohol-free all week (ok, one Mexican lager Tuesday afternoon at my RWM-crew pool swim after the Animal Spirits Live !), and while I feel pretty good, its been a long week.
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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.
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