The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2022

“I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified. Not of our competition — but of our customers.” -Jeff Bezos, 1998 Amazon shareholder letter. We all know how much FAANMG stocks have faltered this year, but there is a bigger story brewing: The companies themselves seem to have…lost their way. What once made them great has slipped into their historical legacy, with less innovation and far less delight to its end users.

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The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 8, 2022

Why did the stock market bounce this summer? Everyone has their explanation: The Fed might pivot! Inflation readings have now peaked! Oil prices are down 25%! China is ending the lockdowns! The labor market is staying strong! Earnings are still coming in better than expected! All true. But there’s an even better reason that doesn’t invalidate any of the ones I’ve posted above.

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 24, 2022

Podcasts Tim Ranzetta talks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money. (ngpf.org) Jonathan Fields talks wealth and psychology with Patrice Washington host of the “Redefining Wealth Podcast.” (goodlifeproject.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Dr. Brad Klontz — co-author of "Money Mammoth: Harness The Power of Financial Psychology to Evolve Your Money Mindset, Avoid Extinction, and Crush Your Financial Goals.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2022

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Decelerated in June The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

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Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 21, 2022

There was a question posed on Twitter this week that caused a stir among finance people: A 50% chance of winning $50 million would equate to an expected value of $25 million. Why would you take $1 million against an expected payout value of $25 million? That doesn’t make any sense. If you understand probabilities, you hit the green button. Easy right?

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 30, 2022

Source: AgWeb. If you are interested (as I am) in Real Estate , then allow me to suggest you consider exploring the world of Farmland. It is something I have done for a while, and it is a fascinating rabbit hole to fall into. Not so much as an investor, but as someone interested in how agriculture works (but yes, there is an investor angle here as well).

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The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 29, 2022

Is this chart going up or down? It’s not a trick question. Just look at it and tell me what primary the trend is. You’d be amazed at how many financial advisors, insurance brokers acting as financial advisors, financial planners, wirehouse wealth managers, financial consultants and other assorted intermediaries in this business could not for the life of them look at this chart and give you a straight answer.

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Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 17, 2022

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Joe Saul-Sehy co-author of a new book "Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management." (citywireusa.com) Demetri Kofinas talks with Vitaliy Katsenelson author of "Soul in the Game." (hiddenforces.io) Investing On the emotional advantage of caring less about your investments. (humbledollar.com) Thinking about money management as water management.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2022

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 13, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, but the pace slipped to 27% above one year ago.

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Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 25, 2022

A reader asks: Hey guys please explain why an inflation-linked bond could have lost money this year with inflation at 9%. I’ve been getting this question a lot lately. How could bonds that have an implicit inflation kicker be down almost 7% this year? Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are one of the most peculiar assets in the investment universe.

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Alpha Architect

AUGUST 1, 2022

I find that returns are predictably negative for several months after the onset of recessions, becoming high only thereafter. I identify business cycle turning points by estimating a state-space model using macroeconomic data. Conditioning on the business cycle further reveals that returns exhibit momentum in recessions, whereas in expansions they display the mild reversals expected from discount rate changes.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 26, 2022

I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.

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The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 27, 2022

I like the way Ari Wald at Oppenheimer frames the current technical set-up for the S&P 500. Now we’re caught between the declining 200-day and the rising 50-day – the latter might be the next major pivot point for short-term traders and for general sentiment depending on what happens if and when we get there: Here’s Ari: A Bullish Base vs. a Resuming Bear The S&P 500’s rejection from its 200-d.

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Marketing Marketing 328

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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 5, 2022

Business Zack Fuss talks with Christian Bellinger about the business of luxury giant LVMH. (joincolossus.com) Howard Lindzon talks with Will Ahmed, founder and CEO of WHOOP. (howardlindzon.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Hannah Elliott discuss how EVs are changing driving. (ritholtz.com) Derek Thompson talks with Ted Gioia on why old music is seemingly pushing aside new music.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 11, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.64 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 9, 2022

Consumer debt is on the rise. This comes from a recent report by the New York Fed: Total household debt rose $312 billion, or 2 percent, in the second quarter of 2022 to reach $16.15 billion, according to the latest?Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—climbed $207 billion and stood at $11.39 trillion as of June 30.

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The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 3, 2022

Gross domestic product is the most commonly accepted measure of the economy’s performance. For the previous two quarters, it showed that the economy contracted. So recession, right? Wrong. Before getting into why I don’t think the economy was in a recession during the first half of the year, it’s worth mentioning that things are very weird right now.

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Banking

The Big Picture

AUGUST 25, 2022

Over the years, I have been involved in a fair share of investment conferences. This began with the Big Picture Conference at the New York Athletic Club, post-GFC. I had flipped bullish in March 2009, but I have vivid recollections that Fall of listening to Jim O’Shaughnessy of OSAM explain the history of markets following a 50+% crash. He was even more bullish than I was, and had the data to back it up.

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The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 22, 2022

Sharing this chart from Guggenheim showing that the S&P 500’s bear market bounce literally stopped on a dime and was turned away at the 200-day moving average. It’s almost too perfect. We manage our tactical portfolio based on technically-oriented rules not because it always works (it doesn’t!) but because it eliminates feelings like fear or fear of missing out from the decision-making process.

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Alpha Architect

AUGUST 4, 2022

Across markets, momentum is one of the most prominent anomalies and leads to high risk-adjusted returns. On the downside, momentum exhibits huge tail risk as there are short but persistent periods of highly negative returns. Crashes occur in rebounding bear markets, when momentum displays negative betas and momentum volatility is high. Based on ex-ante calculations of these risk measures we construct a crash indicator that effectively isolates momentum crashes from momentum bull markets.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 25, 2022

The DOL reported : In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 250,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 247,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

AUGUST 23, 2022

Ryan Detrick shared a stat last week that should put stock market investors at ease with the recent rally: Here is Ryan’s data to back this up: And the chart: This sounds pretty good to me and it makes sense intuitively. Bear market rallies are a common occurrence but not to this degree. So are we out of the woods? Maybe? The problem is that although it appears we have skirted a recession for the time being, it&#.

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The Irrelevant Investor

AUGUST 24, 2022

After retracing 50% of the losses, stocks are at a crossroads. Before we move forward, let’s step back and simply describe how we got here. Going into the second quarter, investors got too bearish based on positioning and sentiment. Both individual investors and institutional investors alike wanted no part of stocks. And then when earnings turned out to be mostly better than feared, on top of inflation expectations.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

Yesterday I spent some time with Eric Balchunas recording a Masters in Business podcast. Balchunas is Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and the author of “ The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions.”. It’s a fun conversation I’m sure everybody will enjoy. There are parts of our discussion I thought were obvious, but he convinced me as underappreciated: First and foremost, the intense disruption of low-c

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The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 27, 2022

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. These were the most read posts on the site this week, in case you missed it: The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

Wealth Management

AUGUST 9, 2022

Products like Toggle, though hardly revolutionary, nonetheless represent significant steps forward in improving day-to-day efficiency for advisors.

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Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

Today we celebrate the recovery of all the jobs lost in 2020, and the unemployment rate matching the lowest level since 1969. The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. The participation rate decreased slightly, and the employment-population ratio increased slightly.

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Andrew Thrasher

AUGUST 8, 2022

Much as been written and discussed by traders since June following the start of the bear market that plagued global equities in the first half of 2022. Each up tick gets analyzed to death and questioned, “was that THE bottom?” Continue reading Bear Market Rally or New Up Trend? → The post Bear Market Rally or New Up Trend? first appeared on.

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