August, 2022

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How Amazon Become Ordinary

The Big Picture

“I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified. Not of our competition — but of our customers.” -Jeff Bezos, 1998 Amazon shareholder letter. We all know how much FAANMG stocks have faltered this year, but there is a bigger story brewing: The companies themselves seem to have…lost their way. What once made them great has slipped into their historical legacy, with less innovation and far less delight to its end users.

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Why the market is bouncing

The Reformed Broker

Why did the stock market bounce this summer? Everyone has their explanation: The Fed might pivot! Inflation readings have now peaked! Oil prices are down 25%! China is ending the lockdowns! The labor market is staying strong! Earnings are still coming in better than expected! All true. But there’s an even better reason that doesn’t invalidate any of the ones I’ve posted above.

Marketing 339
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Personal finance links: a major shift

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Tim Ranzetta talks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money. (ngpf.org) Jonathan Fields talks wealth and psychology with Patrice Washington host of the “Redefining Wealth Podcast.” (goodlifeproject.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Dr. Brad Klontz — co-author of "Money Mammoth: Harness The Power of Financial Psychology to Evolve Your Money Mindset, Avoid Extinction, and Crush Your Financial Goals.

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Client Cash Management: Why It’s Important, And The Next Generation Of Technology To Make It Better

Nerd's Eye View

Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.

Clients 246
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Three Things I Think I Think

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Inflation has peaked. This morning’s CPI report is more evidence that disinflation is going to become a more prolonged [ … ].

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U.S. Cropland Values Hit Record Highs

The Big Picture

Source: AgWeb. If you are interested (as I am) in Real Estate , then allow me to suggest you consider exploring the world of Farmland. It is something I have done for a while, and it is a fascinating rabbit hole to fall into. Not so much as an investor, but as someone interested in how agriculture works (but yes, there is an investor angle here as well).

Sales 358
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Is this chart going up or down?

The Reformed Broker

Is this chart going up or down? It’s not a trick question. Just look at it and tell me what primary the trend is. You’d be amazed at how many financial advisors, insurance brokers acting as financial advisors, financial planners, wirehouse wealth managers, financial consultants and other assorted intermediaries in this business could not for the life of them look at this chart and give you a straight answer.

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Personal finance links: consolation prizes

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Joe Saul-Sehy co-author of a new book "Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management." (citywireusa.com) Demetri Kofinas talks with Vitaliy Katsenelson author of "Soul in the Game." (hiddenforces.io) Investing On the emotional advantage of caring less about your investments. (humbledollar.com) Thinking about money management as water management.

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#FA Success Ep 294: Developing COI Referrals With Attorneys From An Attorney-Turned-Advisor, With Neel Shah

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 294th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Neel Shah. Neel is the Founder of Shah Total Planning, which itself is a combination of Beacon Wealth Solutions (an independent RIA) and Shah & Associates (a law firm) in Monroe Township, New Jersey, and oversees $57 million in assets under management for 50 client households.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Is the USA in a Recession?

Pragmatic Capitalism

New episode of Three Minute Money here. Is the USA in a recession? While the media has traditionally referred to a recession as 2 quarters of negative GDP the White [ … ].

Media 148
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Why Are TIPS Losing Money With Inflation at 9%?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Hey guys please explain why an inflation-linked bond could have lost money this year with inflation at 9%. I’ve been getting this question a lot lately. How could bonds that have an implicit inflation kicker be down almost 7% this year? Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are one of the most peculiar assets in the investment universe.

Assets 145
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Tales from the Dark Side

The Big Picture

I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.

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All eyes on SPX 4,000

The Reformed Broker

I like the way Ari Wald at Oppenheimer frames the current technical set-up for the S&P 500. Now we’re caught between the declining 200-day and the rising 50-day – the latter might be the next major pivot point for short-term traders and for general sentiment depending on what happens if and when we get there: Here’s Ari: A Bullish Base vs. a Resuming Bear The S&P 500’s rejection from its 200-d.

Marketing 328
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Podcast links: long time horizons

Abnormal Returns

Business Zack Fuss talks with Christian Bellinger about the business of luxury giant LVMH. (joincolossus.com) Howard Lindzon talks with Will Ahmed, founder and CEO of WHOOP. (howardlindzon.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Hannah Elliott discuss how EVs are changing driving. (ritholtz.com) Derek Thompson talks with Ted Gioia on why old music is seemingly pushing aside new music.

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#FA Success Ep 294: Developing COI Referrals With Attorneys From An Attorney-Turned-Advisor, With Neel Shah

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 294th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Neel Shah. Neel is the Founder of Shah Total Planning, which itself is a combination of Beacon Wealth Solutions (an independent RIA) and Shah & Associates (a law firm) in Monroe Township, New Jersey, and oversees $57 million in assets under management for 50 client households.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 27% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 13, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, but the pace slipped to 27% above one year ago.

Sales 145
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Debt Denominator Blindness

A Wealth of Common Sense

Consumer debt is on the rise. This comes from a recent report by the New York Fed: Total household debt rose $312 billion, or 2 percent, in the second quarter of 2022 to reach $16.15 billion, according to the latest?Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—climbed $207 billion and stood at $11.39 trillion as of June 30.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Future Proof is Almost Here!

The Big Picture

Over the years, I have been involved in a fair share of investment conferences. This began with the Big Picture Conference at the New York Athletic Club, post-GFC. I had flipped bullish in March 2009, but I have vivid recollections that Fall of listening to Jim O’Shaughnessy of OSAM explain the history of markets following a 50+% crash. He was even more bullish than I was, and had the data to back it up.

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Gen X spoke at the VMAs last night

The Reformed Broker

You don’t have to go checking to see all the other performances from last night’s Music Video Awards on MTV, you can just take my word for it – RHCP was the highlight. Nice to see Generation X is still in the conversation <laugh cry emoji>, very quietly being talented and capable while the Boomers and Millennials continue their culture war blood feud.

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Personal finance links: wasting precious time

Abnormal Returns

Aging Five lessons from getting older including 'Change gets old.' (humbledollar.com) The pursuit of the 'new things' eventually loses its glow. (gothamgal.com) Don't let inertia keep you from learning something new (and useful). (abnormalreturns.com) Investing Why avoiding investment fads is so difficult. (bestinterest.blog) Making the case for Series I Savings Bonds.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Aug 20-21)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the FPA is planning to leave the Financial Planning Coalition (which also includes the CFP Board and NAPFA) at the end of the year. This follows the FPA’s announcement that it plans to pursue title reform for the term “financial planner”, and signals that there may be coordination challenges or divergent strategies among the three organi

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022"

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.64 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

Economics 145
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Why People Make Dumb Financial Decisions on Purpose

A Wealth of Common Sense

There was a question posed on Twitter this week that caused a stir among finance people: A 50% chance of winning $50 million would equate to an expected value of $25 million. Why would you take $1 million against an expected payout value of $25 million? That doesn’t make any sense. If you understand probabilities, you hit the green button. Easy right?

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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

Yesterday I spent some time with Eric Balchunas recording a Masters in Business podcast. Balchunas is Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and the author of “ The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions.”. It’s a fun conversation I’m sure everybody will enjoy. There are parts of our discussion I thought were obvious, but he convinced me as underappreciated: First and foremost, the intense disruption of low-c

Taxes 334
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Literally

The Reformed Broker

Sharing this chart from Guggenheim showing that the S&P 500’s bear market bounce literally stopped on a dime and was turned away at the 200-day moving average. It’s almost too perfect. We manage our tactical portfolio based on technically-oriented rules not because it always works (it doesn’t!) but because it eliminates feelings like fear or fear of missing out from the decision-making process.

Portfolio 294
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Sunday links: incentives at work

Abnormal Returns

Fund management The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ($BND) is set to become the biggest bond ETF. (ft.com) Four big trends in the asset management have been in place for a decade. (morningstar.com) Corporate governance only works if shares actually get voted. (etftrends.com) Coinbase How Coinbase ($COIN) lost its big lead to FTX and Binance. (nytimes.com) Why the Coinbase ($COIN)-Blackrock ($BLK) agreement is a big deal.

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Client Cash Management: Why It’s Important, And The Next Generation Of Technology To Make It Better

Nerd's Eye View

Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.

Clients 246
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AI Solutions Are Making Strides In Fintech Land

Wealth Management

Products like Toggle, though hardly revolutionary, nonetheless represent significant steps forward in improving day-to-day efficiency for advisors.

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