The Big Picture
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 3, 2022
I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it… Our story begins in 2019… It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of.
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Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 31, 2022
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.69% in September from 0.72% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.62% in September 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 16, 2022
There’s an old saying that they don’t ring a bell for you at the top. I know this to be true because investors spent more than 10 years during the bull market of the 2010s calling everything they saw a top. The regime changes are rarely obvious until after the fact. The same is true when trying to call a bottom during a bear market. They don’t announce these things over a PA for everyone to hear.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
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The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 4, 2022
Stocks got washed out in the third quarter. Whether you were looking at prices or people’s reactions to said prices, it was hard to find anything positive to say other than things are so bad they’re actually good. That might sound silly, but it’s not. It’s the truth. The riskier stocks feel, the less risky they get over time.
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The Big Picture
OCTOBER 18, 2022
At the beginning of each quarter, I prepare a short but in-depth conference call for RWM clients. The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. In that half hour, I blow through ~40 slides that capture and explain what is going on. About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This is atypical. The reason we emphasized real estate this Q is that housing is very often where we see FOMC policy having its most immediate effect.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 3, 2022
Every bear market has these two things in common: They end Expected returns go up The first thing is self-explanatory. The second thing should be obvious but from my talks with thousands of investors over the years, I have found that it is most certainly not intuitive to most people. When I tell you that expected returns are rising as stock prices fall, this is an overly simplistic way of saying that investors only get.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 20, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 30, 2022
Facebook went public in the spring of 2012. In the year before filing to become a public company, the social network brought in $3.7 billion in revenue. The stock price actually fell 50% from May 2012 through September of that year. From that point on it was one of the best-performing tech stocks in the entire market. From September 2012 through August 2021, Facebook shares were up a cool 2000%.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 1, 2022
For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters. Things feel dark out there, and investors are losing hope. But for those of us that are still contributing money to their future, this bear market should not be met with anxiety, but with open arms. If you were contributing $100 every month to SPY, you would have been able to purchase half a share at the beginning of 201.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 13, 2022
“We know firsthand from deals we’ve been working on that buyers have pulled back and lenders are more conservative,” says one broker. Nevertheless, the medical office sector is still considered a favored asset class among investors.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 10, 2022
Imagine the impact of markets losing a ~quarter of their value in one trading session. That was what happened 35 years ago today: October 13 th , Black Monday a/k/a the 1987 crash. If you are a relatively young investor, you may be unfamiliar with what happened that day or why. The 87 crash impacted many market-related elements. We can trace lots of today’s market structure to that event, and the changes it wrought subsequently.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 8, 2022
Thanks for checking out piece from last Sunday “You weren’t supposed to see that” – it went crazy viral all over the place. I can’t believe how much feedback came in. Mostly in agreement with my conclusion but not all of it, there were some reasonable counterarguments too. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 14, 2022
A new research paper from an economist at Yale did a deep dive into 50 of the most popular personal finance books of all-time. If you’re a personal finance nerd like me you should be familiar with the authors — Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, Robert Kiyosaki, Ramit Sethi, David Bach and the like. The point of the paper was to show how typical personal finance advice differs from academic economic models.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 14, 2022
One simple way to explain how markets function is rising prices attract buyers, and falling prices attract sellers. They might sound like opposite yet equivalent truths, but they’re not. Fear spreads quicker than greed, which is why bull markets can grind on for years, while bear markets often end quickly and in a panic. The chart below shows what I just described.
Validea
OCTOBER 19, 2022
By Justin Carbonneau ( @jjcarbonneau ) —. In Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, he introduces Mr. Market, which is an allegory that is meant to help the reader understand the irrational, groupthink and herding mentality that can take place in the stock market. Joel Greenblatt, former hedge fund manager, popular value investor and author described Graham’s Mr.
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The Big Picture
OCTOBER 16, 2022
This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 15, 2022
Hey guys, didn’t get a chance to do any writing this week but we did two really good shows on the YouTube / podcast front I wanted to make sure you don’t miss… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 17, 2022
Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.0K 2021: -2.4K 2020: -0.9K 2019: -10.9K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7% year-over-year.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 28, 2022
There are very few hard and fast rules when it comes to the markets. Nothing works all the time. The greatest investors in the world can go through multi-year periods of underperformance. The dumbest investors in the world can go through multi-year periods of outperformance. These things happen because humans control the financial markets and humans can be erratic at times.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 1, 2022
The world has turned upside down, or right side up, depending on your perspective. Everything that worked during the pandemic is unraveling on the other side of it. Nose bleed valuations are getting knee clubbed by a combination of high inflation and rising interest rates. These darlings of 2020 are down 80% or more from their all-time high. It’s tempting to try and catch a bottom in exciting names that are down so.
Alpha Architect
OCTOBER 31, 2022
In this article, the author examines the research published over the last 30 years on momentum and its theoretical credibility. One of the original momentum articles was published by Jegadeesh and Titman in 1993, and is considered the seminal work on the topic. The research review contained in this publication begins with the 1993 work and confines itself to only the highest quality journals among the plethora of work that has been published on momentum.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 14, 2022
There’s nothing like confusing market action to send people into narrative creation overdrive. Yesterday’s 2% collapse on hotter-than-expected CPI data, followed by ~5% recovery to finish the day up more than 2% is a perfect example of random market action begetting endless explanations. What was the takeaway from CPI? Check out the BAML chart above: Core goods are coming down ( that’s good!
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 4, 2022
Office-to-multifamily conversions have ticked up lately. But such redevelopments remain difficult to pull off and represent a small percentage of the apartment pipeline.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 13, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 8, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 31% above one year ago.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Whenever the next recession happens, every human being on the planet can take credit for calling it in advance. Everyone and their brother has been predicting an economic slowdown for months now. I guess when the Federal Reserve tells you they are willing to throw the economy into a recession to slow inflation, you should believe them. The weird thing is it would be hard to say we’re in a recession right now.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Today we learned that home prices had their largest drop since 2009. This is just a small preview of what I believe we’ll see in the coming months as the market adjusts to 7% mortgages. In fact, a lot of the economic data will likely worsen. We just heard from the Chief Business Economist at S&P Global opine on the most recent Global Flash US Services PMI report.
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