The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).
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The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
CapWealth went up against an SEC staff of eight attorneys, jury experts and two paralegals, and won a rare victory related to share class disclosure conflicts. “This is David and Goliath,” the firm's co-founder said.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Podcast Michael Kitces talks with Mindy Crary, owner of Creative Money, about making it clear about fiduciary marketing. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Kurt Brown, CEO and CIO, of TownSquare Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Compliance Jason Zweig, "In 30 years of writing about the financial-advice industry, I never learned that advisers can provide less-comprehensive disclosures than stockbrokers.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -8.9K 2020: -10.5K 2019: -14.7K Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from the peak on October 28th.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Direct indexing portfolios will be made available through the Morningstar Wealth Platform.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Twitter Axe Last Friday, Elon Musk cut about half of the company’s work force. That's approximately 3,700 jobs. Many employees did not know until they saw their corporate access blocked. I saw some Tweets in which managers did not even know which of their subordinates were axed. The managers sent emails to their subordinates asking if they still had access.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Career shifts Former Peloton ($PTON) CEO John Foley is getting into the rug business. (wsj.com) UBS' Chief Risk Officer is becoming a photographer. (ft.com) Investing Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' (wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
My views on inflation continue to evolve: I was correct in identifying inflation during the mid-2000s; during the post-crash 2010s I remained appropriately skeptical about rising prices. The price dynamic during and after the pandemic appeared to be troublesome but my expectations were that inflation would be resolved relatively quickly as supply chains reopened and life returned to normal. “ Transitory ” turned out to be too optimistic, and I was wrong in my expectations for a faster decline in
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 8th. Lumber was at $447 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 33% from $663 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 5, 2022
Just wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who made a donation to our Long Island Cares food drive for Thanksgiving. The money really goes a long way, we’re going to be making a big difference in the lives of people who need help this holiday season. We shattered the goal dollar-wise and I’m hoping to see a few hundred donated meals this weekend at our drop.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
The lack of available space and spiking rents around major U.S. ports is leading tenants to diversify or relocate to smaller ports around the country.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Image from Investing.com yellow highlights and comments are mine. Market Still Reeling From Collapse of FTX Yesterday I noted Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX Here is the chart I posted yesterday. Today's chart will follow. FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. Valuation Plunge The 44 percent rally was due to the announcement of a deal with Binance.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
Top clicks this week Lessons learned from a young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) There are five levels of wealth. (physicianonfire.com) Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October , and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Gregor Macdonald, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga, the inverted yield curve, electrification of the power grid, the growth of electric vehicles, peak oil, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
After a turbulent decade, the U.S. mall industry seems to have come out of the pandemic in decently good health.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 42% above one year ago.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
RV parks have grown in popularity with consumers during the pandemic. Investors have noticed the trend.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Monthly average Fed Funds Rate via St. Louis Fed. Chart Notes I use monthly averages because the Fed now targets a range. Also the Fed Funds Target Rate is discontinued and only dates to 1982. This is the steepest, most aggressive hiking cycle ever. You can see the impact especially in mortgage rates and thus housing. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. 30-year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - One Year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates court
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC increased the Fed Funds Rate another 75 bps yesterday, to 3.75-4.0%. Markets have given back much of October’s gains fairly quickly. I have been turning this over slowly in my mind, trying to assess their thinking here. I am not sure what models they use, what data they think is most important, what impact their actions will have, and perhaps most importantly, exactly what they are hoping to accomplish.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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