The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.
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Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Podcast Michael Kitces talks with Mindy Crary, owner of Creative Money, about making it clear about fiduciary marketing. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Kurt Brown, CEO and CIO, of TownSquare Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Compliance Jason Zweig, "In 30 years of writing about the financial-advice industry, I never learned that advisers can provide less-comprehensive disclosures than stockbrokers.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Chicago Financial Planner
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement. As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work. You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Twitter Axe Last Friday, Elon Musk cut about half of the company’s work force. That's approximately 3,700 jobs. Many employees did not know until they saw their corporate access blocked. I saw some Tweets in which managers did not even know which of their subordinates were axed. The managers sent emails to their subordinates asking if they still had access.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Career shifts Former Peloton ($PTON) CEO John Foley is getting into the rug business. (wsj.com) UBS' Chief Risk Officer is becoming a photographer. (ft.com) Investing Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' (wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
In this video we discuss the collapse of FTX and the crypto markets and what we can learn from this bear market.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Welcome back to the 309th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Anh Tran. Anh is the Founder and Managing Partner for SageMint Wealth, a corporate LPL-affiliated RIA based in Orange, California, that oversees nearly $325 million for 195 client households. What's unique about Anh, though, is how, as a solo advisor, she differentiates her firm by leveraging the combination of a high-touch concierge approach to client service with a unique investment mana
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
My views on inflation continue to evolve: I was correct in identifying inflation during the mid-2000s; during the post-crash 2010s I remained appropriately skeptical about rising prices. The price dynamic during and after the pandemic appeared to be troublesome but my expectations were that inflation would be resolved relatively quickly as supply chains reopened and life returned to normal. “ Transitory ” turned out to be too optimistic, and I was wrong in my expectations for a faster decline in
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 5, 2022
Just wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who made a donation to our Long Island Cares food drive for Thanksgiving. The money really goes a long way, we’re going to be making a big difference in the lives of people who need help this holiday season. We shattered the goal dollar-wise and I’m hoping to see a few hundred donated meals this weekend at our drop.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Image from Investing.com yellow highlights and comments are mine. Market Still Reeling From Collapse of FTX Yesterday I noted Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX Here is the chart I posted yesterday. Today's chart will follow. FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. Valuation Plunge The 44 percent rally was due to the announcement of a deal with Binance.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
Top clicks this week Lessons learned from a young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) There are five levels of wealth. (physicianonfire.com) Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
I’ve had three big investing epiphanys in my investing career. The first big epiphany was that macro matters much more than micro.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Traditionally, investment planning has been at the forefront of how financial advisors add value for their clients. From advisors who earn commissions from the sales of financial products to fee-only investment advisors who charge based on client assets under management, the value advisors provide to their clients has often been centered on investment management.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Gregor Macdonald, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest on the Sam Bankman-Fried saga, the inverted yield curve, electrification of the power grid, the growth of electric vehicles, peak oil, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 11, 2022
Here’s a new Three Minute Money video on the Triffin Dilemma and why it matters more than ever.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Traditionally, investment planning has been at the forefront of how financial advisors add value for their clients. From advisors who earn commissions from the sales of financial products to fee-only investment advisors who charge based on client assets under management, the value advisors provide to their clients has often been centered on investment management.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Monthly average Fed Funds Rate via St. Louis Fed. Chart Notes I use monthly averages because the Fed now targets a range. Also the Fed Funds Target Rate is discontinued and only dates to 1982. This is the steepest, most aggressive hiking cycle ever. You can see the impact especially in mortgage rates and thus housing. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. 30-year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - One Year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates court
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
It feels like we can’t go a week without some crazy cheating scandal popping up. First, there were the professional fishermen who put lead weights and raw fish fillets into the fish they caught to literally tip the scales in their favor. Then there was the bizarre chess cheating affair where one of the top players in the world was accused of using a vibrating device placed in his rear end.
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