The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

Fascinating discussion this morning from Robin Powell. He points to a research note from Kings College where the authors surveyed active managers about how they were responding to the shift in favor from active to passive fund management over the past decade or two. But they also asked questions about how these managers invested their own monies. Robin buries the lede in his discussion, but allow me to correct that oversight: “ Active managers invest their own capital passively.” Man

Management 301

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The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 25, 2023

Bitcoin is a middling technology that, 15 years after its introduction to the world, still does not have a single legitimate use case in the developed world where it’s the best possible solution to a problem. It’s worse than our traditional stores of value (gold, US dollar) because of its inherent volatility (roughly 5x more volatile than the stock market).

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Marketing Marketing 353

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Also on the site Why you should choose simplicity over complexity: the case against FSAs. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. (crossingwallstreet.com) The best books Ben read in 2022 including "Die With Zero" by Bill Perkins. (awealthofcommonsense.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. (topdowncharts.substack.com) Six things that don't change in financial markets including the attraction of 'shiny objects.

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Financial Market Portfolio Investing Investments 276

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Jan 21, 2023. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 69% above one year ago.

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Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 19, 2023

A reader asks: Is it crazy to be 100% in stocks from age 32 to sometime in my 50s for my retirement accounts? And another reader asks a similar question: I don’t get why people work a 30+ year career while investing in stocks only to glide path into a heavier bond allocation around retirement. Why not just stay 100% in stocks, benefit from share price appreciation and collect dividends for life?

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates. This is very counter-intuitive but it makes sense when you consider what an aberrational and unusual cycle this has been. Despite zero rates for a decade plus inflation was quite benign. it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation.

Economy 347

Economy Marketing Marketing 347

The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 21, 2023

Hung with my friends Haley Sacks (Mrs. Dow Jones), Pat McAuliffe (Barstool Sports) and Gabe Walker (PRE.VEYOR) at the Knicks game this week. That’s after doing Closing Bell from the NYSE and then a quick slice at Joe’s Pizza (“Famous Since 1975). A very New York night, really reminded me of what I love so much about this town, despite its flaws and annoyances.

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Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 22, 2023

Top clicks this week What investment beliefs do you hold that a majority of investment pros would disagree with? (mebfaber.com) Is this a new bull market? Hold on. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock market typically bottoms before earnings. (tker.co) Nick Maggiulli, "Being rich is a feeling." (ofdollarsanddata.com) Time and patience play a big role in wealth building.

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Insurance Investing Investments Marketing 275

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2023

Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on December existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.02 million SAAR in December , I mentioned that the median price was down more than normal seasonally. Below is a table of the seasonal pattern over the last several years. Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales for contracts signed mostly in April and May).

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Sales 145

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 29, 2023

Each year Aswath Damodaran at NYU kindly updates the annual returns for stocks (S&P 500), bonds (10 year Treasuries) and cash (3-month T-bills) going back to 1928. I love this data because stocks, bonds and cash are the building blocks of asset allocation.1 Sure, you can add other asset classes and strategies but those three are where most investors should start when it comes to figuring out your portfolio mix.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 2, 2023

Market predictions are silly. We all learned this a long time ago. But that doesn’t mean they’re completely worthless. Even though forecasts are almost always wrong, they can be entertaining and educational. That’s all I’m trying to do with this post. Entertain and educate. Needless to say, but I have to say it anyway, nothing in this list is investment advice.

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Education Portfolio Investing Investments 135

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2023

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and all the rest of the seasonal glad tidings for you and yours in 2023. Before we roll up our sleeves and start to engage in the serious business of managing risk in the capital markets, I wanted to share a story that is more in keeping with the spirits of the season. I ran track in high school. My father’s advice when I joined the team was: Find the fastest guy on the team and keep up with him.

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The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 25, 2023

I had a bit of a flashback last night to the year 2000, sitting in my office after hours watching JDS Uniphase collapse on the heels of its conference call after reporting “better than expected” earnings for the quarter. Throughout 2000, techs and telecoms were still making a ton of profit, but it was becoming apparent that they were still coasting on the spend from 1999.

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Marketing Marketing 325

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Accounting

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. (ft.com) The 60/40 portfolio had a historically bad year. (finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. (marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. (theetfeducator.com) IPO proceeds fell off the table in 2022. (cnbc.com) Strategy Average annual stock market returns are not-so average.

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Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 275

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2023

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through January 3rd. Lumber was at $374 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 67% from $1,148 a year ago. Prices are slightly below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 8, 2023

We have a handful of traditions in my family. We watch the Lions lose every year on Thanksgiving. We wear Hawaiian shirts at holiday dinners (try it…it’s fun). We get Chinese takeout for lunch every year on Christmas day. And we update my asset allocation quilt once a year when the calendar turns (OK that’s just me). Let’s do this.

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Asset Allocation Assets Marketing Marketing 144

Wealth Management

JANUARY 17, 2023

As portfolio performance becomes the top concern among clients, one in four have either thought about switching, or switched, financial advisors in the last three years, a YCharts survey found.

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Clients Financial Advisor Portfolio 133

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Banking

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Welcome to 2023! Let’s jump into the new year with some fresh observations, some of which are quite surprising: • Astronomical Measures of Time Are Unrelated to Investing : 2023 – a new year! It is natural to hope the flipping of the calendar brings something new and different. But why? It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76 seconds to complete one orbit – to return to its exact same place in space relative to our star, the sun.

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Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 326

The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 18, 2023

FUTURE PROOF FESTIVAL 2023 TICKET REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN Join us September 10th-13th in Huntington Beach, CA! It’ll be the lowest rate you’ll ever pay to attend. Prices jump in 2 weeks. Use the link down below to register now. See you there[link] pic.twitter.com/BTO0RNivhJ — The Compound (@TheCompoundNews) January 18, 2023 Last September we threw the biggest wealth management festival (and proba.

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Wealth Management Management 294

Trade Brains

JANUARY 20, 2023

A Case Study on ‘Satyam Scam’ Accounting Scandal: When the 2008 recession hit the world, India was not only going through a financial crisis but also an ethical crisis. Imagine a hypothetical scenario in the stock market where the very basic financials provided to you by a company are manipulated. This was what happened with Satyam Computer Services.

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Banking Accounting Ethics Sales 131

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, construction, and social assistance. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down by 21,000, from +284,000 to +263,000, and the change for November was revised down by 7,000, from +263,000 to +256,000.

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Numbers 145

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 10, 2023

It’s now well-documented that 2022 is one of the worst years in history for financial markets. Last year was one of the worst years ever for stocks and the worst year ever for bonds. The logical next step is to look at what has happened next following the prior worst years for stocks, bonds and diversified portfolios. Past performance tells us nothing about future performance but studying market history can provide.

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Financial Market Portfolio Marketing Marketing 142

Wealth Management

JANUARY 23, 2023

In a settlement, FINRA said the firm mistakenly believed that third-party b/ds executing the trades were responsible for spotting potential market manipulation.

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Marketing Marketing 144

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Let’s start with some numbers: Microsoft 22,000 (10%) Amazon 18,000 (1%) Google 12,000 (6.4%) Salesforce 7,000 (10%) Tesla 10,000 (10%) Twitter 3,700 (50%) Apple 0 (0%) Keep in mind a few things as you con

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Economics Numbers Planning Investing 322

The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 3, 2023

If you’re a financial advisor or a fund manager and you weren’t down 20% last year, you won, basically. The S&P fell into a 20% bear market while the Nasdaq crashed almost 40%. Bonds were down double digits as an asset class. International stocks, while outperforming the US and not down as much, were still down a lot. Except for Turkey, which inexplicably doubled last year – here’s the TUR ETF, The post Think you have it bad?

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Financial Advisor Assets Management Marketing 294

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

Alpha Architect

JANUARY 17, 2023

The illiquid nature of the asset class makes the demystifying of private equity returns difficult to achieve under any circumstances, but the framework presented in this article should move the reader closer to the goal. Expected Returns for Private Equity Will Probably Suck was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Assets 130

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

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Food Banking Accounting 145

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 31, 2023

It’s not difficult to find a bearish perspective during a bear market. The bad stuff gets amplified and feels much worse when investors are losing money. Although stocks have rallied this year we’re still well below the highs and remain in an economic environment that is increasingly hard to handicap. Nassim Taleb has never been shy about voicing his bearish prognostications.

Economics 139

Economics Marketing Marketing 139