The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 23, 2022
A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper and professional athlete has been able to see it coming in real-time for months and months… Take a picture, you may never see anything so obviously about to happen ever again. A child could have foreseen it. At a certain point, a person who is charge of price stability should probably look in the mirr.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Around the world, markets lost 5% or worse just last week. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. All jokes aside , September has lived up to its reputation as a challenging month for equities. After the brutal sell-off, a relief rally was due, hence the green on your screen this morning.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
As an individual begins planning for retirement, one of the factors often considered is whether (and where) they might relocate to enjoy their retirement. When evaluating their potential options across the U.S., a state’s income tax rules can have a significant impact on where they might choose to live. The perception of a state as having high or low taxes could make it more or less attractive for someone choosing where to relocate, and those perceptions are often skewed by the state’
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Don’t fight the Fed used to be a positive slogan. That’s not the case anymore. If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession. How do I know this? Because Fed officials are literally telling us this every time they speak.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 16, 2022
The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession).
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The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
All of the value creation for investors comes from the actions they take in falling markets, not rising ones. If you’re not yet in retirement and not finished putting money into your retirement accounts, every 5% the market falls is an increased opportunity for you to buy things that will be worth much more in the future when you eventually sell them.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 14, 2022
The First Totally Honest Stock Market Story. FRIDAY’S MARKETS. By Vinnie Foster Wynans III. Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal. The market rallied early this morning for reasons nobody understands and nobody predicted. CNBC analysts confidently asserted it had something to do with the Senegalese money supply but others pointed to revised monthly figures showing a poor tuna haul off the Peruvian coast.
The Irrelevant Investor
SEPTEMBER 7, 2022
One of these things is not like the others. A 60/40 portfolio just experienced the worst eight-month stretch to start a year going back to the inception of the Barclay’s aggregate bond index in 1976. One year ago the 10-year rate was 1.32%. It’s 3.35% today. The last time it experienced a 12-month increase that large was in January 2000!
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 23, 2022
Earlier this week I posted a chart showing how volatile the stock market has been this year: Things have gotten even more volatile since then. This post prompted the following response from someone on Twitter experiencing their first bear market: Yes, there is precedent for this. These are all of the bear markets since World War II: If anything, it’s surprising the current iteration isn’t down more.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 15, 2022
From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Boring Day For Rates, But Not "Good" Boring The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the past few weeks as rates pushed back up to long term highs. After yesterday's upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (a key inflation report that frequently causes volatility in markets), rates surged up to match the highest levels in 14 years.
Wealthfront
SEPTEMBER 3, 2022
Today we announced that together with UBS we decided to terminate our pending acquisition and will instead remain an independent company. We are continuing to explore ways to work together in a partnership and UBS has given us $69.7 million in financing at a $1.4 billion valuation. I am incredibly excited about Wealthfront’s path forward […]. The post Our Plans to Remain an Independent Company appeared first on Wealthfront Blog.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Okay don’t press the <Buy> because of this but maybe reconsider pressing the <Sell> button if you haven’t already… The AAII sentiment poll hit 60% Bears this week. History says the more pessimistic the investor class becomes, the better the prospective returns look six months out. The way I think about this is that the only thing that could make investors really bearish is a big sell-off in t.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 16, 2022
The traditional finance conference was murdered this week. A stake was driven through its heart by innovators tired of the old ways. It was, to be fair, a mercy killing. Living in the past, running on inertia, nobody bothered to tell the patient that it was time to say your goodbyes before we pull the plug. The industry had forgotten why it even exists: To serve an audience that wants to get out of the office, hang with its peers, and learn how to be better at what it does.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
The Irrelevant Investor
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by YCharts and Tropical Brothers: See here for YCharts September Fund Flow Report See here for tropical gear, free shipping, and sunglass straps on all orders On today’s show we discuss: Weekly market commentary via BlackRock Fed hikes could add $2.1 trillion to deficits 14 charts that explain inflation Full Stack Economics on leaning out of a career to support a signifi.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 11, 2022
Following the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 a number of macro doom-and-gloomers began predicting a collapse of the U.S. dollar. The Fed was “printing” trillions of dollars. Interest rates had never been that low before. It was an appealing narrative if you were someone stuck in the negative feedback loop of the biggest economic crash since the Great Depression.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single?family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Meb Faber Research
SEPTEMBER 27, 2022
Episode #445: Jeff Currie, Goldman Sachs – Why ESG May Make This Commodity Supercycle Different From Past Cycles Guest: Jeff Currie is Goldman Sachs’ global head of Commodities Research. Date Recorded: 9/16/2022 | Run-Time: 47:04 Summary: In today’s episode, Jeff shares why he called for a commodity supercycle almost two years ago and where […].
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 21, 2022
One of the things we know about inflation expectations is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell relies heavily on them. He thinks about expectations, gives speeches on them, and uses the data series when enacting Federal Reserve policies to combat inflation. The problem is that all consumer surveys (including inflation expectations) are deeply problematic.
The Irrelevant Investor
SEPTEMBER 19, 2022
“Did you like it?” The answer to one of the most common questions in the world is not just about whether you liked the thing in question. Your response will depend on reality exceeding or falling short of expectations. How did you like it relative to how you thought you would like it? One of my colleagues told me he enjoyed the new Jurassic Park movie and I absolutely could not believe it.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 5, 2022
According to Bill Bryson, the visible universe is a million million million million miles across. That’s a 1 with 24 zeroes after it (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). That sounds rather large. But the universe beyond what we can see is even harder to comprehend: The number of light years to the edge of this larger, unseen universe would be written not “with ten zeroes, not even with a hundred, but with million.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2022
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 11th.
Meb Faber Research
SEPTEMBER 20, 2022
Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs. Growth Debate (The Best Investment Writing Volume 6) Author: Ben Inker is co-head of GMO’s Asset Allocation team and a member of the GMO Board of Directors. Summary: Each year, our team carefully sorts through tons of research from some of the most respected money […]. The post Ben Inker, GMO – Dispelling Myths in The Value vs.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 4, 2022
Happy Labor Day Weekend! We did some amazing stuff on the blogs and podcasts this week. Volatile markets really bring the best out in our writers. Hope you’ve been checking out Ben’s blog, Nick’s blog, Animal Spirits, Portfolio Rescue and all the rest this summer. I think we’re balancing a dose of realism about the current situation with plenty of constructive commentary and some optimism about the.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 19, 2022
How would you like to buy a Rolex — brand new, with papers and box — for MSRP? Prices have skyrocketed for used timepieces, and it would be perfect to nab that Daytona or Batman you have been eyeballing all pandemic for a reasonable amount of cash. Watch Rapport (link omitted on purpose) has every Rollie for sale up for pre-order at MSRP.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
The Irrelevant Investor
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Few things are more dangerous to investors than getting a big thing right. Once you’ve tasted the sweet nectars of massive returns, average just won’t move your internal needle. Instead of trying to get on base, you go for the grand slam walk-off home run. Such is the story of many famous investors who got rich and famous at one specific moment in time.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
I’m not a fan of blaming the Fed for everything you don’t like about the markets or the economy. Markets have always been rigged or manipulated. Truly free markets are a pipe dream. You have to invest in the markets as they are, not as you wish them to be. Having said that, the Fed deserves some blame for what’s going on in the housing market.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 9, 2022
The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2022 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $143.8 trillion during the second quarter of 2022. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $7.7 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.4 trillion. Household debt increased 7.4 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2022.
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