The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month. Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. That was after housing had peaked, subprime mortgages were defaulting, and the great financial crisis was about to start.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 13, 2024
Private equity What does the research say about private equity performance? (morningstar.com) Why it's so hard to compare public and private investments. (caia.org) Fund management How should we assess 'pedigree' when it comes to investment managers? (investmentecosystem.com) Why hedge funds are happy with higher short term interest rates. (bloomberg.com) Quant stuff Researchers are now unleashing ChatGPT on stock selection models.
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Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 14, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 27, 2024
Despite 5% short-term interest rates and stickier inflation than some people would like and the Fed potentially pushing back interest rate cuts for a few months and the new True Detective seasons being a massive disappointment…the S&P 500 continues to take out new all-time highs. By my count there have already been a baker’s dozen in 2024 alone.1 Here are the new highs by year since 2015: 2015: 10 2016: 1.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
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Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
The firm’s board is already conducting a search for his successor. Additionally, Greg Davis has been appointed as president in addition to his current role as chief investment officer.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 14, 2024
At the Money: Is War Good for Markets? (February 14, 2024) What does history tell us about how war impacts the stock market? What is the correlation between geopolitical conflict and inflation? Can these patterns inform us of future bull market behavior? In this episode, I speak with Jeffrey Hirsch about what happens to equities after global conflicts.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 4, 2024
Top clicks this week Josh Brown, "Just please, no matter what you do, don’t say the G word. Never say it." (downtownjoshbrown.com) Should you invest in stocks when they are at all-time highs? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. (humbledollar.com) Are you doing these seven things that represent 'real financial planning'?
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Receded 4.9% in January Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest and South recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 74.3 in January.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 4, 2024
Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis there was this running narrative that the United States economy was the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry hamper. Yes, our economic recovery was tepid but the rest of the world was a mess. The European Union was falling apart. Emerging markets were in disarray. China seemed like it wanted to put up a fight for our economic seat on the throne but never made a serious attempt to di.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
The Irrelevant Investor
FEBRUARY 1, 2024
Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by BlackRock: See here for more information on BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust On today’s show, we discuss: New York Community Bancorp stock plunges 38%, reigniting fears for regional banks Mark Zuckerbergs reported $100M compound in Hawaii Listen here: Charts: Tweets: Worst Fed day for the stock market since March 2023 (and fourth-worst.
Alpha Architect
FEBRUARY 16, 2024
While analysts underwrite high growth for companies that have grown quickly and slow growth for companies that have grown slowly in the past, a large body of evidence demonstrates that reversion to the mean of both positive and negative abnormal earnings growth is the norm. On the Persistence of Growth and Value Stocks was originally published at Alpha Architect.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 15, 2024
Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 18, 2024
Also on the site At a certain age it's time to just say no to more stuff. (abnormalreturns.com) There is no holy grail in investing. (abnormalreturns.com) It may take time, but markets eventually work. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week A look at five new finance books including "The Trading Game" by Gary Stevenson. (axios.com) Why you should diversify internationally.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
"Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity", Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 18, 2024
There’s a cohort of people who think the stock market is rigged. They assume it’s a casino where only certain people win and everyone else loses. Or everything is manipulated by the Fed and the results are fake. If it weren’t for the bailouts or falling interest rates or government spending or the Taylor Swift Eras Tour, the whole house of cards would collapse.
The Irrelevant Investor
FEBRUARY 26, 2024
Today was one of the best days of my life. I got to meet and interview my favorite athlete of all time, Eli Manning. Surreal is putting it mildly. I’ve never felt more of an emotional connection to an athlete than Eli, and I never really thought about why until this weekend when I was writing an introduction for him. I am a lifelong die-hard Giants and Knicks fan.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
Investors tend to appreciate private credit for delivering current income and lower volatility. In a world of higher interest rates, it also gives them the opportunity to achieve higher yields.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 7, 2024
At the Money: Stock Picking vs. Value Investing with Jeremy Schwartz, Wisdom Tree. (February 7, 2024) How much you pay for stocks really matters. Should value investing be part of that strategy? To find out more, I speak with Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, leading the firm’s investment strategy team in the construction of equity Indexes, quantitative active strategies and multi-asset Model Portfolios.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 26, 2024
Podcasts Frazer Rice talks Florida and California property insurance issues with Aon's LaTanya Simmons. (open.spotify.com) Michael Kitces talks with Ben Hockema. who is the Founder of Illuminate Wealth Management about how to fund your RIA. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby on why not caring what other people think is a valuable asset. (standarddeviationspod.com) Diana Britton talks with Michael Kitces about adviser well-being.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 27, 2024
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 5.5% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2023 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 8, 2024
A reader asks: Investing at all time highs is counterintuitive. Does it produce great returns because the market is forward-looking and investors are momentum investors? It doesn’t seem to make sense to buy just before a long severe bear market. I understand the worry here. All-time highs seem scary because every stock market crash in history started from one.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Alpha Architect
FEBRUARY 23, 2024
Making a bet on biotech/pharma firms that have not yet achieved significant revenue is the equivalent of buying a lottery ticket—with the same poor risk/return relationship. Lottery Preference and Biotech Stocks: Trust the Financials, Not the Science was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Wealth Management
FEBRUARY 15, 2024
Anya Coverman, president and CEO of the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives, talks about potential policies at the federal and state levels that could stem advisors’ ability to use alternative investments in client portfolios.
The Big Picture
FEBRUARY 29, 2024
A century of tech adoption in 30 seconds click for animation Source: Blackrock The post U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021 appeared first on The Big Picture.
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff with five reasons you need a financial plan that have nothing to do with money. (peterlazaroff.com) Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk with Justin Castelli about your mission in life. (youtube.com) How well do you know yourself? Barry Ritholtz talks with David Dunning. (ritholtz.com) Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk with Marc Freedman who the co-CEO and founder of Encore.org about working later in life.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 2, 2024
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.
A Wealth of Common Sense
FEBRUARY 11, 2024
I enjoy studying market history not because it makes it any easier to predict the future but because it can set helpful baseline assumptions. For example, there have been permabears predicting a massive financial crisis and stock market crash every single year since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. A crash is always a possibility, of course. But there have only been five crashes in the 50% or worse range over the past.
Alpha Architect
FEBRUARY 9, 2024
Advisors and investors should be aware that fund families that invest systematically have found ways to incorporate the research findings on the limits to arbitrage and the evolving changes we have discussed to improve returns over those of a pure index replication strategy. It seems likely this will become increasingly important, as the markets have become less liquid, increasing the limits to arbitrage and allowing for more overpricing.
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