February, 2024

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 362
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Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley To Step Down By Year’s End

Wealth Management

The firm’s board is already conducting a search for his successor. Additionally, Greg Davis has been appointed as president in addition to his current role as chief investment officer.

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All-Time Highs Are Historically Bullish

The Big Picture

A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month. Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. That was after housing had peaked, subprime mortgages were defaulting, and the great financial crisis was about to start.

Economics 349
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Research links: simplistic thinking

Abnormal Returns

Private equity What does the research say about private equity performance? (morningstar.com) Why it's so hard to compare public and private investments. (caia.org) Fund management How should we assess 'pedigree' when it comes to investment managers? (investmentecosystem.com) Why hedge funds are happy with higher short term interest rates. (bloomberg.com) Quant stuff Researchers are now unleashing ChatGPT on stock selection models.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Choosing A Financial Advisor? – Ask These 6 Questions

The Chicago Financial Planner

With the start of a new year, many people resolve to get their finances in order. A part of this process might include hiring a financial advisor or hiring a new financial advisor if you have decided to move on from your current advisor. Hiring the right advisor for your needs is critical. Here are six questions to ask when choosing a financial advisor: How do you get paid?

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Using Reflection Questions To Help Prospects Find Clarity And Focus On A Shared Planning Vision

Nerd's Eye View

Initial outreach to a financial advicer rarely (if ever) results from a prospective client waking up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat because they just figured out that they're in desperate need of a comprehensive financial plan. Rather, prospects often reach out to set an initial appointment only when they realize they have a specific pain point that they need an advicer's help with.

Planning 246

More Trending

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The DOL’s Independent Contractor Rule and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Wealth Management

The final impact of the DOL rule on independent contractors has yet to be determined for the financial advisory industry.

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U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021

The Big Picture

A century of tech adoption in 30 seconds click for animation Source: Blackrock The post U.S. Technology Adoption, 1900-2021 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Josh Brown, "Just please, no matter what you do, don’t say the G word. Never say it." (downtownjoshbrown.com) Should you invest in stocks when they are at all-time highs? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the vast majority of investors should avoid alternatives. (humbledollar.com) Are you doing these seven things that represent 'real financial planning'?

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey, "Activity stalled"

Calculated Risk

"Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity", Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024.

Marketing 331
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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What's Driving Gold's Performance in 2024

Wealth Management

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the timing of rate cuts.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 5.5% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2023 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

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RIAs Aren’t Growing, and It’s a Problem We Need to Fix

Wealth Management

The dips in M&A and total assets in 2022 should have been a wakeup call for the industry to return its focus to organic growth.

Assets 321
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January Employment Report: 353 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry.

Retail 322
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Poor Weather Reduced Employment by About 50,000 in January

Calculated Risk

The BLS reported 353 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January. During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report. The BLS reported 553 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 257 thousand (median 248 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather.

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Half of U.S. Households Own REIT Stocks

Wealth Management

Through mutual funds, ETFs, target date funds and direct stock ownership, 168 million Americans have exposure to publicly traded REITs.

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ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January

Calculated Risk

From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosures Up but Delinquencies Improve as the Mortgage Market Kicks Off 2024 • In an expected rebound from December’s calendar-driven rise, t he national delinquency rate dropped to 3.38% in January , the lowest since October, and flat from the same time last year • Past-due mortgages were down across the board, as inflows and rolls to later stages of delinquency fell, while early- and late-stage delinquency cures impro

Numbers 316
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Housing February 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 12.9% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. I expect inventory to bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 16th, inventory was at 494 thousand (7-day average), compared to 495 thousand the prior week.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.6% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through January 2024. Services were up 5.0% YoY as of January 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in December.

Food 316
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The Opportunity for Advisor Growth in the Retirement Market

Wealth Management

Technology innovations have made it easier than ever for non-retirement-expert advisors to offer retirement solutions.

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 6.1% YoY in January

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2024. CPI Shelter was up 6.1% year-over-year in January, down from 6.2% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.1% YoY in January , down from 6.3% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices "Flat" in December; Down 9.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Flat in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were unchanged in January compared to December. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) remained at 204.0 but down 9.2% from a year ago. The index experienced the same 0.0% monthly change from December 2021 to January 2022.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies Brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family serious delinquency rate increased sharply in January to 0.44% from 0.28% in December, and up from 0.12% in January 2023. This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012.

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The Healthy Advisor: What Makes Advisors Happy With Michael Kitces

Wealth Management

Kitces discusses the 2023 Advisor Wellbeing Study and the factors contributing to advisors’ happiness.

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New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 661 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 310
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 311
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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11 Investment Must Reads for This Week

Wealth Management

Morningstar profiled the 15 funds that have destroyed the most wealth over the past 10 years. Investors who lost money on a deal are trying to shut down a real estate crowdfunding site. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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AIA: "Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 18th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Reports Sluggish Conditions to Start 2024 rchitecture firm billings remained soft entering into 2024, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 46.2 in January. Any score below 50.0 indicates decreasing business conditions. “ This now marks the lengthiest period of declining billings since 2010 , although it is reassuring that

Economy 309
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Duran's Rise Growth Partners Raises $250M

Wealth Management

Private equity firm Charlesbank, which also owns a stake in Lido Advisors, will be a majority owner of the firm; the capital will be used to invest in Rise Growth's targeted RIAs.

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What’s Behind Liz Nesvold’s Move to Emigrant?

Wealth Management

Nesvold says she’ll certainly use her M&A know-how, but she’ll also play a larger role connecting the dots between Emigrant’s businesses—with the high-net-worth individual at the center of it all.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.