The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 29, 2024
@TBPInvictus here (link is now to Bluesky) Let’s cut to the chase: A Hoover Institution analysis of California private job creation is off by a factor of 100. Between January 2022 and June 2024, the state created 523,700 private sector jobs — not 5,400 as claimed. MSM uncritically repeated the false number. I spend far too much time debunking economic b t.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 28, 2024
How much to charge for financial advice is rarely a decision made lightly. A firm's pricing strategy often reflects both the local market (or niche-related) norms – such as the nearly-ubiquitous 1%. Others may align with broader industry trends, like transitioning to fee-only structures to buffer against market volatility. Still others may choose a hybrid model, combining AUM fees with additional charges for other services like tax planning.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 22, 2024
The new administration is talking about cutting the number of federal government employees. This raises the question of how many people are employed by the Federal government? The following data is from the BLS and does not include military personnel. The first graph shows total government employment (Federal, State and Local). Click on graph for larger image.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 12, 2024
The S&P 500 is up 27% in 2024. We’re quickly closing in on a 30% gain for the calendar year. How rare is that feat? It happens more often than you would think. Here’s a look at every calendar year return on the S&P 500 going back to 1928: The 30% gains are highlighted. By my count, there were 18 years in which the stock market finished with a gain of 30% or more.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
NAIFA Advisor Today
NOVEMBER 12, 2024
A recent study supported by the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI), and conducted by economists Mark Warshawsky and Gaobo Pang, reveals that retirees could see better financial outcomes by incorporating annuities into their retirement income strategy, rather than relying solely on the traditional “4% rule.” This research underscores the importance of a diversified approach to retirement, especially in light of market fluctuations, inflation, and the uncertainty around life expectancy.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 15, 2024
This week, we speak with Colin Camerer , Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at California Institute of Technology. Prior to joining Caltech in 1994, Camerer was a faculty member at various institutions including the University of Chicago GSB and the Kellogg Graduate School of Business at Northwestern University, and held a visiting professorship at Oxford University.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 1, 2024
The authors of the research discussed developed a machine learning model that can accurately predict trading volume for individual stocks. They then demonstrated how this model can be used to construct a portfolio that outperforms a traditional market-cap weighted portfolio. Using Trading Volume to Optimize Portfolio Construction and Implementation was originally published at Alpha Architect.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 19, 2024
I'll have more on port traffic once Los Angeles releases their data for October. From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Reaches All-Time Record in October The Port of Long Beach moved nearly 1 million cargo containers in October, achieving its strongest month in its 113-year history, driven by brisk demand for holiday goods and delayed containership arrivals caused by a nearby traffic incident and fire that affected some terminal operations at the end of September.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 24, 2024
I bought Bitcoin for the first time in 2017. I tried my darnedest to understand it but my traditional finance brain couldn’t get there.1 Instead of repeatedly banging my head against the wall and fighting the growing crypto religion, I bought some. It was a hedge against being left behind. My timing was never great but I averaged in a number of times over the years.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 20, 2024
Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 4, 2024
Aspen Standard Wealth has taken a majority stake in Summitry, a $2.8 billion RIA, as it aims to hold wealth management firms permanently and solve some of their pain points.
NAIFA Advisor Today
NOVEMBER 12, 2024
NAIFA’s Lifetime Healthcare Center is presenting “The Peak 65 Series: Impact Day for Lifetime Healthcare,” a one-day virtual event, November 19, beginning at 11 am eastern. It features a dozen 20-minute TED Talk-like presentations covering timely topics on the financial implications of longevity and aging. Presenters include recognized thought leaders offering insights on long-term care, disability income, hybrid insurance products, Medicare, federal and state legislative and regulatory consider
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 25, 2024
The propagation of factors actually reflect valid characteristics of the markets and market fluctuations. Factors are global, respectable and repeatable was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 27, 2024
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October: Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 10, 2024
Let’s take a look at the list of all-time highs we’re currently experiencing: The U.S. stock market has never been higher: The S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009 at 666. It’s now close to 6,000. The Dow has gone from roughly 6,500 to nearly 44,000. What an incredible run. Gold is also at all-time highs: It’s rare to see stocks and the yellow metal simultaneously taking off like this.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 26, 2024
As an advisor, you must recognize that you’re not simply in the financial advice business. First and foremost, you’re in the problem-solving business.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 14, 2024
The influence of content marketing goes well beyond simple brand awareness; it is a crucial asset for educating, engaging and building trust with both prospective clients and colleagues.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
XY Planning Network
NOVEMBER 18, 2024
No matter the size of your business or whether you have no current plans to hire that first team member, it’s never too early to begin or, in some cases, continue defining and evolving your company’s culture. Establishing an ownership mentality mindset is vital to include in your culture.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 22, 2024
The bottom line is that returns to the low volatility anomaly have only justified investing when low-volatility stocks were in the value regime, after periods of strong market performance, and when they excluded high-volatility stocks that have low short interest (providing clues as to how to improve its performance). This may be why live funds have been generating large negative alphas once we account for common factor exposures.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 12, 2024
From the Federal Reserve: The October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2024.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 1, 2024
Paul Tudor Jones made some waves last week on a CNBC interview: He’s worried government spending and deficit levels are going to lead to a crisis: “The question is after this election will we have a Minsky moment here in the United States and U.S. debt markets?” Jones said, referring to shorthand for a dramatic decline in asset prices. “Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there̵.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 27, 2024
Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.6% in October and is up 4.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 26, 2024
Morningstar published its 2025 investment outlook for financial advisors. Morgan Stanley has looked to add employees of startup companies as wealth management clients in anticipation of future IPOs, reports Inc. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.
Trade Brains
NOVEMBER 4, 2024
Gold is the ultimate security measure for central banks, which can be thought of as national treasure troves. Central banks hold gold bars in reserve to withstand economic downturns, much like we save money for unexpected expenses. This shiny gold serves as a financial anchor, keeping things stable when markets tremble or currencies falter. It’s similar to having shining insurance coverage that never ends!
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 29, 2024
An anomaly is a pattern in stock returns that deviates from what is expected based on established financial theories or models. These patterns can sometimes present opportunities for abnormal returns. However, they are often inconsistent and challenging to exploit. Many anomalies have achieved consensus and, thus, have been incorporated into factor-based models, including size, value, [.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 28, 2024
Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.1% The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest rate since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is up from 3.4% in April 2023 - and that matched the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 3, 2024
It’s been a good year in the stock market. Through the close on Friday, the U.S. stock market is up 20% in 2024. The Russell 3000 Index is a good approximation of the total U.S. stock market. The index now has a little less than 2,700 stocks. Out of 2,670 stocks, 101 are up 100% or more this year (3.8% of the total). Thirteen stocks are up 300% or more, five are up 500% or greater and there is one stock in the one c.
Advisor Perspectives
NOVEMBER 15, 2024
Nominal retail sales in October were up 0.40% month-over-month (MoM) and up 2.85% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.15% MoM and up 0.27% YoY.
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