Sat.Sep 28, 2024 - Fri.Oct 04, 2024

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. In "You Weren't Supposed to See That" he takes a look back. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week On the strange math of stock returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Investors have won the war on fees. Then there's risk. (wealthmanagement.com) Supplementing with magnesium?

Math 299
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Helping Nervous Clients Understand The (True) State Of The Social Security System And What It Means For Their Retirement

Nerd's Eye View

Given the frequent news headlines on the (un)sustainability of the Social Security system, many working-age financial advisory clients might harbor doubts about receiving their full estimated Social Security benefits (and many current Social Security recipients might be concerned that they will not continue to receive their full benefits throughout the remainder of their lives).

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At the Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments

The Big Picture

 At The Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments , with Soraya Darabi, TMV (October 02, 2024) The Efficient Market Hypothesis informs us that stock markets reflect all of the information known about any company. But is that also true for start-ups and venture-funded private companies? As it turns out, it depends on where you look… Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest : Soraya Darabi, partner in the venture firm TMV.

Investing 182
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Housing Sept 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Sunday links: your unique personality

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. is in the midst of an 'epic bull market.' (awealthofcommonsense.com) Earnings are the most important driver of stock prices. (tker.co) Consumers American consumers have access to a lot of dry powder., i.e. home equity. (carsongroup.com) There is little sign that American consumers are pulling bak. (sherwood.news) Apple Apple ($AAPL) isn't going to invest in OpenAI.

More Trending

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MiB: Vincent Aita of Cutter Capital on the DNA of Biotech Investing

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Vincent Aita, Founder and CIO of Cutter Capital Management. Prior to founding Cutter Capital in November 2022, Vincent spent time as a Senior Analyst for Millennium Partners and a Portfolio Manager at Citadel. He also received a Ph.D. in molecular genetics from Columbia University. We discuss the launch of Cutter Capital and how he managed to combine a love for genetics and business into a successful career.

Investing 147
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Comments on September Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Numbers 122
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Podcast links: AI episodes

Abnormal Returns

Listening Why chat podcasts rule the industry. (wired.com) CEOs are increasingly going on (and hosting) podcasts. (ft.com) Would you listen to a AI-generated podcast discussion? (tomtunguz.com) Economy Tyler Cowen talks with Kyla Scanlon author of "In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work." (conversationswithtyler.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Kevin Brady about the coming expiration of the TCJA.

Economy 278
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CEO Peer Groups: A Strategy For Financial Advisors To Build Trust With And Attract Business Owner Clients

Nerd's Eye View

When it comes to focusing on a niche for financial advisors, business owner clients can be an appealing target as they can have complex financial planning problems ranging from cash flow management to tax planning to acquisition strategies. However, while business owners can be compelling clients, they can also be difficult to find and prospect in the first place.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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At The Money: At the Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments

The Big Picture

 At The Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments , with Soraya Darabi, TMV (October 02, 2024) We expect our investments to generate positive financial returns, but can they also have a positive societal effect? Can your capital make an impact? Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest : Soraya Darabi, partner in the venture firm TMV. She has been an early investor in companies that went public such as FIGS, Casper, and CloudFlare, as well as startups like Gimlett and Lightwell, th

Investing 130
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The Great Wealth Transfer: Five Tips for RIAs to Attract New Clients

Advisor Perspectives

Expanding outreach to include a well-orchestrated digital lead generation strategy is the most effective and efficient way to grow a client roster and help new generations navigate the Great Wealth Transfer with optimal financial strategies.

Clients 122
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Thursday links: an increasingly automated world

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bonds, stocks AND gold are all having a good year. (carsongroup.com) Utilities are crushing it in 2024. (on.spdji.com) Market quilts, including global markets, updated through Q3. (novelinvestor.com) Crypto MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is not the only company that has Bitcoin on the balance sheet. (blockworks.co) The SEC is not done with Ripple. (theverge.com) Finance Election betting is another sign that gambling and trading are becoming indistinguishable.

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#FASuccess Ep 405: When Being ‘Youthful’ Turns From A Liability To An Asset In Building Your (Long-Term) Advisory Business, With Gaetano Sacco

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 405th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Gaetano Sacco. Gaetano is a partner and senior financial advisor at Fountainhead Advisors, an RIA based in Warren, New Jersey, that oversees approximately $900 million in assets under management for 1,000 client households. What's unique about Gaetano, though, is how after breaking away from an insurance broker-dealer with barely $5M in assets under management, he has been abl

Assets 176
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September , and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17

Food 115
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The Biggest Risk in Real Estate

A Wealth of Common Sense

The pictures and videos from the wake of Hurricane Helene are unfathomable. One emergency respondent said the flooding in parts of North Carolina resembles biblical devastation. I can’t imagine trying to pick up the pieces if your town, home or business was destroyed by the storm. The good news is this country is pretty good about rallying the troops to help in situations like these.

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Wednesday links: monetizable slop

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. is roughly 50% of global market cap. (apolloacademy.com) Are small cap stocks declining in quality? (advisorperspectives.com) Finding and exploiting an edge costs both time and money. (riskofruinpod.substack.com) Gen Z is getting a jump start on investing compared to prior generations. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Eli Lilly Can Eli Lilly ($LLY) avoid the boom/bust cycle of other pharma companies?

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Kitces & Carl Ep 148: Making It Easier To Get Started By NOT Building In Public And Focusing On Version 0 Instead

Nerd's Eye View

"Building in public" is a common piece of advice for tackling new challenges – whether launching content, starting a business, or setting personal or professional goals – as public commitment fosters accountability and motivation, tapping into the human desire to avoid embarrassment. While this approach can be effective, it ultimately poses its own difficulties; for example, when stakes are public, advisors may feel pressured to endlessly perfect their offerings and over-commit their

Clients 130
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: September Employment

Advisor Perspectives

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of those indicators, nonfarm employment. September saw a 254,000 increase in total nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment fell to 4.1%.

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5 Years of Spending in Retirement

A Wealth of Common Sense

We emptied the inbox this week covering other questions about getting your CFA designation, the types of bonds you should own in retirement, how pensions fit into a retirement plan, how to spend more money, teaching your kids about money, becoming a landlord, using a HELOC as an emergency fund, how analysts rate stocks and adding international exposure to your portfolio.

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Personal finance links: enjoying your money

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Jill Schlesinger talks with Bill McBride of Calculated Risk about the state of the housing market. (youtube.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Jeremy Schwartz about stocks for the long run. (ritholtz.com) Khe Hy talks about the pros and cons of cashing out in a company IPO with Rick Foerster. (youtube.com) Dan Haylett talks about the evolution of the 4% safe withdrawal rate with Bill Bengen.

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FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2024 (just released).

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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“$500 is basically free these days”

A Wealth of Common Sense

Housing can be a good investment. Anyone who bought a home before the pandemic can attest to that. The gains this cycle have been spectacular. But housing is also a form of consumption. You not only have property taxes and homeowners insurance but ongoing maintenance, lawn care, wear & tear, renovations, decorations, furniture, etc. I was reminded of this when we had a minor roof leak issue this week.

Insurance 108
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Saturday links: building brands

Abnormal Returns

Autos What the NHTSA is doing for pedestrian safety. (fastcompany.com) Hacking a Kia is surprisingly simple. (wired.com) Why thieves are not targeting EVs. (axios.com) Keeping a Tesla ($TSLA) Cybertruck clean isn't easy. (wsj.com) Transport Are blended-wing aircraft the future of travel? (ft.com) What freight moves by rail in the U.S. (visualcapitalist.com) Nuclear A nuclear revival can thank the AI boom.

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The Hidden Cost of Index Replication

Alpha Architect

An index-tracking approach generally lacks flexibility, which detracts from performance, leaving returns on the table. Intelligent design can overcome such issues. For example, an S&P 500 Index could choose to rebalance one month ahead of the scheduled reconstitution, minimizing the impact of reconstitution. Direct index funds are already engaging in such strategies with ETFs.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.9% YoY.

Sales 105
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Is a Soft Landing Bad News For the Homebuyers?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Imagine laying out the following scenario a few years ago: Inflation will hit its highest level in four decades. That will force the Fed to raise rates from 0% to 5%+ in a hurry. Inflation will eventually fall back to target but a recession isn’t the reason why. By the time the Fed is ready to start cutting rates the stock market will be back to all-time highs.

Marketing 110
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Monday links: selling you something

Abnormal Returns

Markets The China stock market rally is very broad. (sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. (axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. ETF investor attention. (sherwood.news) Strategy The time to prepare for a bear market is before it is on the horizon. (optimisticallie.com) 42% of the Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings.