Sat.Sep 28, 2024 - Fri.Oct 04, 2024

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Housing Sept 30th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.8% Week-over-week, Up 36.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.0% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 27th, inventory was at 731 thousand (7-day average), compared to 725 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.

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Estate Planning in a Spooky 2024 Landscape

Wealth Management

Five ways to turn potential tax scares into sweet savings.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site The investment world was a different place when Josh Brown started writing. In "You Weren't Supposed to See That" he takes a look back. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week On the strange math of stock returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Investors have won the war on fees. Then there's risk. (wealthmanagement.com) Supplementing with magnesium?

Math 299
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 5–6)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey from Charles Schwab indicates that advisors see technology as the biggest driver of change in the RIA industry, with the growing number of AdvisorTech solutions as the most frequently cited tech-related driver of change.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Comments on September Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%. Construction employment increased 25 thousand and is now 688 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Numbers 306
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Commutation of QTIP Trust Results in Taxable Gift

Wealth Management

All assets were distributed to the decedent’s husband.

More Trending

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Helping Nervous Clients Understand The (True) State Of The Social Security System And What It Means For Their Retirement

Nerd's Eye View

Given the frequent news headlines on the (un)sustainability of the Social Security system, many working-age financial advisory clients might harbor doubts about receiving their full estimated Social Security benefits (and many current Social Security recipients might be concerned that they will not continue to receive their full benefits throughout the remainder of their lives).

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September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 in September , and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, government, social assistance, and construction. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17

Food 289
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Focus Firm Kovitz Acquires $5.9B Pittsburgh RIA

Wealth Management

The deal, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024, will bring Kovitz’s assets to nearly $30 billion.

Assets 311
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Podcast links: AI episodes

Abnormal Returns

Listening Why chat podcasts rule the industry. (wired.com) CEOs are increasingly going on (and hosting) podcasts. (ft.com) Would you listen to a AI-generated podcast discussion? (tomtunguz.com) Economy Tyler Cowen talks with Kyla Scanlon author of "In This Economy? How Money & Markets Really Work." (conversationswithtyler.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Kevin Brady about the coming expiration of the TCJA.

Economy 278
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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CEO Peer Groups: A Strategy For Financial Advisors To Build Trust With And Attract Business Owner Clients

Nerd's Eye View

When it comes to focusing on a niche for financial advisors, business owner clients can be an appealing target as they can have complex financial planning problems ranging from cash flow management to tax planning to acquisition strategies. However, while business owners can be compelling clients, they can also be difficult to find and prospect in the first place.

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FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2024 (just released).

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Rate Cuts Will Provide a Tailwind to Private Equity Activity

Wealth Management

The changing rate environment should create a more attractive exit environment for existing private equity investments, as well as fuel new acquisitions.

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Thursday links: an increasingly automated world

Abnormal Returns

Markets Bonds, stocks AND gold are all having a good year. (carsongroup.com) Utilities are crushing it in 2024. (on.spdji.com) Market quilts, including global markets, updated through Q3. (novelinvestor.com) Crypto MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is not the only company that has Bitcoin on the balance sheet. (blockworks.co) The SEC is not done with Ripple. (theverge.com) Finance Election betting is another sign that gambling and trading are becoming indistinguishable.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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#FASuccess Ep 405: When Being ‘Youthful’ Turns From A Liability To An Asset In Building Your (Long-Term) Advisory Business, With Gaetano Sacco

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 405th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Gaetano Sacco. Gaetano is a partner and senior financial advisor at Fountainhead Advisors, an RIA based in Warren, New Jersey, that oversees approximately $900 million in assets under management for 1,000 client households. What's unique about Gaetano, though, is how after breaking away from an insurance broker-dealer with barely $5M in assets under management, he has been abl

Assets 232
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 31.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 31.9% YoY.

Sales 263
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Public REIT Total Returns Are Up 40% Since October 2023

Wealth Management

The shift to a new interest rate environment added more fuel to the fire, pushing REIT total returns up 16.8% in the third quarter alone.

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Wednesday links: monetizable slop

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. is roughly 50% of global market cap. (apolloacademy.com) Are small cap stocks declining in quality? (advisorperspectives.com) Finding and exploiting an edge costs both time and money. (riskofruinpod.substack.com) Gen Z is getting a jump start on investing compared to prior generations. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Eli Lilly Can Eli Lilly ($LLY) avoid the boom/bust cycle of other pharma companies?

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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At the Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments

The Big Picture

 At The Money: Finding Overlooked Private Investments , with Soraya Darabi, TMV (October 02, 2024) The Efficient Market Hypothesis informs us that stock markets reflect all of the information known about any company. But is that also true for start-ups and venture-funded private companies? As it turns out, it depends on where you look… Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest : Soraya Darabi, partner in the venture firm TMV.

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ADP: Private Employment Increased 143,000 in September

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 143,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% Private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

Economy 263
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What Is A Chief Behavioral Officer?

Wealth Management

They can help deepen advisors' understanding of client behaviors, biases and decision-making processes.

Clients 306
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Personal finance links: enjoying your money

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Jill Schlesinger talks with Bill McBride of Calculated Risk about the state of the housing market. (youtube.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Jeremy Schwartz about stocks for the long run. (ritholtz.com) Khe Hy talks about the pros and cons of cashing out in a company IPO with Rick Foerster. (youtube.com) Dan Haylett talks about the evolution of the 4% safe withdrawal rate with Bill Bengen.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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MiB: Vincent Aita of Cutter Capital on the DNA of Biotech Investing

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Vincent Aita, Founder and CIO of Cutter Capital Management. Prior to founding Cutter Capital in November 2022, Vincent spent time as a Senior Analyst for Millennium Partners and a Portfolio Manager at Citadel. He also received a Ph.D. in molecular genetics from Columbia University. We discuss the launch of Cutter Capital and how he managed to combine a love for genetics and business into a successful career.

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Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in August

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during August 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,131.9 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised July estimate of $2,133.9 billion. The August figure is 4.1 percent above the August 2023 estimate of $2,047.4 billion. emphasis added Private spending decreased and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,642.2

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ETF Market Explodes with Over 100 Launches in September

Wealth Management

Fixed-income strategies dominated, with over 60 new ETFs in that segment alone amid a torrent of new funds.

Marketing 304
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Saturday links: building brands

Abnormal Returns

Autos What the NHTSA is doing for pedestrian safety. (fastcompany.com) Hacking a Kia is surprisingly simple. (wired.com) Why thieves are not targeting EVs. (axios.com) Keeping a Tesla ($TSLA) Cybertruck clean isn't easy. (wsj.com) Transport Are blended-wing aircraft the future of travel? (ft.com) What freight moves by rail in the U.S. (visualcapitalist.com) Nuclear A nuclear revival can thank the AI boom.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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5 Years of Spending in Retirement

A Wealth of Common Sense

We emptied the inbox this week covering other questions about getting your CFA designation, the types of bonds you should own in retirement, how pensions fit into a retirement plan, how to spend more money, teaching your kids about money, becoming a landlord, using a HELOC as an emergency fund, how analysts rate stocks and adding international exposure to your portfolio.

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Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in September

Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the September 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 477 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Sales 200
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401(k) Real Talk Episode 124: October 2, 2024

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about Empower acquiring a stock option administrator, forefeiture lawsuits, group plans, HSAs and more.

Planning 303
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Monday links: selling you something

Abnormal Returns

Markets The China stock market rally is very broad. (sherwood.news) China's stock market is on board with economic stimulus. (axios.com) The China stock market rally has gotten U.S. ETF investor attention. (sherwood.news) Strategy The time to prepare for a bear market is before it is on the horizon. (optimisticallie.com) 42% of the Russell 2000 companies have negative earnings.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.