Sat.Mar 04, 2023 - Fri.Mar 10, 2023

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How Much Money Buys Happiness?

The Big Picture

I love the idea of convergence — those rare times when multiple stories about very different issues seem to all land on the same “Grand Truth,” albeit from very different perspectives. Yesterday brought just such a three-part convergence into focus. It’s about money and happiness, which is very much the intersection of where I spend much of my time: Capital Markets , and Behavioral Finance.

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Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 72% YoY, Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 3rd. Lumber is currently at $369 per 1000 board feet. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 72% from $1,441 a year ago. Prices are down 8% compared to the same week in 2019, and below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400.

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For Wealthtech Firms And Advisors, AI Has Entered The Chat

Wealth Management

Companies like FMG, Orion and Broadridge have already started integrating ChatGPT, while others, like Snappy Kraken, are taking a more cautious approach.

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SVB

The Reformed Broker

The spectacular blow-up currently taking place at SVB and its primary subsidiary, Silicon Valley Bank, is the biggest story in the markets this week. SVB is systemically important for the technology sector and its Northern California ecosystem. As Jim Cramer put it last night, the Federal Reserve has been firing a machine gun at the economy for the last 12 months but it hasn’t hit anything yet.

Banking 279
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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The Fed is Breaking Things (and it could get worse)

The Big Picture

Armchair quarterbacking the decisions of the Federal Reserve long ago became a blood sport. With the benefit of hindsight, we all are genius central bankers. I particularly loathe managers who lay all the woes of the world at the feet of the Federal Reserve. For more than a century, America’s central bank has been a key part of the investing environment, and it’s your job as an active manager to incorporate their probable policy decisions into your strategy.

Banking 342
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February Employment Report: 311 thousand Jobs, 3.6% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.

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The Biggest Contrarian Bet You Can Make Right Now

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Powell to Congress – “Fed chief Powell is set to begin two days of congressional testimony Tuesday, where he’ll have the chance to explain the central bank’s planned response to a more resilient e.

Banking 258
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A Dozen Questions for Jerome Powell, Fed Chair

The Big Picture

This week, we get to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell twice – tomorrow in the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee and the next day in the House Financial Services Committee. We can expect a series of useless questions, posturing for sound bites, and self-aggrandizing speeches that pretend to be questions.

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CoreLogic: House Prices up 5.5% YoY in January; Declined 0.2% MoM in January NSA

Calculated Risk

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Continues Single-Digit Slowdown in January CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January 2023.

Sales 358
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Prime Capital Investment Advisors Buys Cornerstone Comprehensive Wealth Management

Wealth Management

With $400 million in assets, Cornerstone is the 15th acquisition in PCIA history and builds on roughly 500% growth in just five years.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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This Week On TRB

The Reformed Broker

And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week On TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The age of the Silicon Valley ‘moonshot’ is over :Big Tech’s cost-cutting and layoffs are another nail in the coffin for the industry’s most ambitious and costly projects. ( Washington Post ) • Rupert Murdoch’s deposition in $1.6 billion defamation case is ‘a nightmare’ for Fox News, legal experts say : First Amendment scholars say defamation case against Fox News is “unusually strong.” ( Grid ) see also

Medical 289
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Housing March 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 2.6% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.6% week-over-week. Usually inventory bottoms in early February, so we'd expect inventory to bottom seasonally soon. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last five years: 2023: -11.0K 2022: -3.7K 2021: -11.5K 2020: +1.0K 2019: -1.4K Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

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Exclusive Research: Continued Confidence in Industrial Real Estate, Despite Headwinds

Wealth Management

Survey respondents remain bullish on industrial fundamentals despite concerns about rising interest rates and the potential for a recession.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Personal finance links: the price of success

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Morgan Housel on on the art of spending money. (open.spotify.com) Barry Ritholtz on how to avoid financial disasters. (ritholtz.com) Peter Lazaroff on how a 'negative budget' works. (peterlazaroff.com) Benjamin Felix and Cameron Passmore talk with Erica Alini author of "Money Like You Mean It, Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World." (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) Housing Your house is a terrible investment.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Crypto Bank Had a Boring Collapse, Also Silicon Valley Bank : Elsewhere in boring maturity mismatches and a lack of deposit diversification. ( Money Stuff ) • Why daylight saving is so hard on the body — and what to do about it : Every process within the body, from sleep to metabolism, runs on an internal clock, known as circadian rhythm.

Media 287
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BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 10.8 million in January

Calculated Risk

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 million on the last business day of January , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark

Numbers 349
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Eight First Ladies in Finance

Wealth Management

In honor of International Women’s Day today and Women’s History Month, WealthManagement.com recognizes eight women who broke the glass ceiling in the male-dominated field of finance.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech (March 2023)

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome to the March 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that Conquest, a Canadian financial planning software provider (founded by the prior founder of NaviPlan) has raised $24M (CAD) of private equity capital in preparation for expanding its reach into the US &

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks. Silicon Valley could use a reboot. The biggest players aren’t growing, and more than a few are seeing sharp revenue declines. Regulators seem opposed to every proposed merger, while legislators push for new rules to crack down on the internet giants.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 61% YoY; New Listings Down 26% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Mar 4, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 61% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but the gain was the lowest we’ve seen since December.

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Nine Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (March 8, 2023)

Wealth Management

Real Insights forecasts some challenges for commercial real estate investors in 2023. Realty Income agreed to buy a portfolio of more than 400 convenience stores across the U.S. in a sale-leaseback transaction, reports Commercial Property Executive. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

Sales 275
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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Friday links: breaking things

Abnormal Returns

Markets When markets get volatile and chaotic, there's often no benefit to moving first. (thereformedbroker.com) 0DTEs now dominate S&P 500 options trading. (marketwatch.com) Corporate profit margins are coming in, but not all that quickly. (tker.co) Strategy Investing off headlines is a fool's errand. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't try to invest like Yale, unless you have Yale-like resources.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • A 120-Year-Old Company Is Leaving Tesla in the Dust : Tesla had me convinced, for a while, that it was a cool company. fundamentally, its cars had no competition. If you wanted an electric car that could go more than 250 miles between charges, Tesla was your only choice for the better part of a decade. ( New York Times ) see also Tesla Offers an Unprecedented Look at the Bench Behind Elon Musk : In a clear response to investor criticism, the CEO shared t

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Comments on February Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. Leisure and hospitality gained 105 thousand jobs in February. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 410 thousand jobs since February 2020.

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Distressed and Opportunistic CRE Funds: Explained

Wealth Management

What’s the difference between the two types of funds in terms of strategy, targeted returns and investment horizons.

Investing 273
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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Saturday links: in pursuit of self-compassion

Abnormal Returns

Environment How carbon credits have made biochar into a viable business. (wsj.com) Your toilet paper is full of forever chemicals. (fastcompany.com) Not every glacier is falling apart. (sciencenews.org) Technology How AI will change, i.e. break, the business of search. (slate.com) ChatGPT will make misinformation easier and more impressive. (msn.com) Science What cosmologists are learning from the JWST.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • You Are Not a Parrot And a chatbot is not a human. And a linguist named Emily M. Bender is very worried what will happen when we forget this. We go around assuming ours is a world in which speakers — people, creators of products, the products themselves — mean to say what they say and expect to live with the implications of their words.

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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 7.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 3, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 313
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What Really Makes Financial Advisors Happy?

Wealth Management

In a world driven by the bottom line, the root of contentment often lies behind less “easily measured” criteria.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.