The Big Picture
MARCH 8, 2023
I love the idea of convergence — those rare times when multiple stories about very different issues seem to all land on the same “Grand Truth,” albeit from very different perspectives. Yesterday brought just such a three-part convergence into focus. It’s about money and happiness, which is very much the intersection of where I spend much of my time: Capital Markets , and Behavioral Finance.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 10, 2023
The spectacular blow-up currently taking place at SVB and its primary subsidiary, Silicon Valley Bank, is the biggest story in the markets this week. SVB is systemically important for the technology sector and its Northern California ecosystem. As Jim Cramer put it last night, the Federal Reserve has been firing a machine gun at the economy for the last 12 months but it hasn’t hit anything yet.
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Abnormal Returns
MARCH 8, 2023
Podcasts Morgan Housel on on the art of spending money. (open.spotify.com) Barry Ritholtz on how to avoid financial disasters. (ritholtz.com) Peter Lazaroff on how a 'negative budget' works. (peterlazaroff.com) Benjamin Felix and Cameron Passmore talk with Erica Alini author of "Money Like You Mean It, Personal Finance Tactics for the Real World." (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) Housing Your house is a terrible investment.
Nerd's Eye View
MARCH 6, 2023
Welcome to the March 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that Conquest, a Canadian financial planning software provider (founded by the prior founder of NaviPlan) has raised $24M (CAD) of private equity capital in preparation for expanding its reach into the US &
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
MARCH 10, 2023
Armchair quarterbacking the decisions of the Federal Reserve long ago became a blood sport. With the benefit of hindsight, we all are genius central bankers. I particularly loathe managers who lay all the woes of the world at the feet of the Federal Reserve. For more than a century, America’s central bank has been a key part of the investing environment, and it’s your job as an active manager to incorporate their probable policy decisions into your strategy.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
MARCH 10, 2023
Markets When markets get volatile and chaotic, there's often no benefit to moving first. (thereformedbroker.com) 0DTEs now dominate S&P 500 options trading. (marketwatch.com) Corporate profit margins are coming in, but not all that quickly. (tker.co) Strategy Investing off headlines is a fool's errand. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't try to invest like Yale, unless you have Yale-like resources.
Nerd's Eye View
MARCH 8, 2023
In the early days of investing, stocks were often evaluated in a vacuum: Investors assessed the plusses and minuses of each company’s stock based on its own merits, with little consideration of the relationship between one stock’s performance and that of the market as a whole. Then, in the 1960s, with the advent of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), investors began to look at stocks (and by extension, pooled investments like mutual funds as well as entire portfolios) through the
The Big Picture
MARCH 6, 2023
This week, we get to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell twice – tomorrow in the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee and the next day in the House Financial Services Committee. We can expect a series of useless questions, posturing for sound bites, and self-aggrandizing speeches that pretend to be questions.
The Reformed Broker
MARCH 4, 2023
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week On TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Abnormal Returns
MARCH 4, 2023
Environment How carbon credits have made biochar into a viable business. (wsj.com) Your toilet paper is full of forever chemicals. (fastcompany.com) Not every glacier is falling apart. (sciencenews.org) Technology How AI will change, i.e. break, the business of search. (slate.com) ChatGPT will make misinformation easier and more impressive. (msn.com) Science What cosmologists are learning from the JWST.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 5, 2023
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through March 3rd. Lumber is currently at $369 per 1000 board feet. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 72% from $1,441 a year ago. Prices are down 8% compared to the same week in 2019, and below the pre-pandemic levels of around $400.
The Big Picture
MARCH 5, 2023
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The age of the Silicon Valley ‘moonshot’ is over :Big Tech’s cost-cutting and layoffs are another nail in the coffin for the industry’s most ambitious and costly projects. ( Washington Post ) • Rupert Murdoch’s deposition in $1.6 billion defamation case is ‘a nightmare’ for Fox News, legal experts say : First Amendment scholars say defamation case against Fox News is “unusually strong.” ( Grid ) see also
Discipline Funds
MARCH 10, 2023
One of the themes I’ve been discussing lately is how inflation risk has been evolving into credit risk. What I mean by that is that we’re currently navigating the economic bust portion of the cycle where inflation is a falling risk and credit deflation risk arises, in large part, because the Fed has reacted so quickly to bring inflation in.
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Abnormal Returns
MARCH 9, 2023
Books A Q&A with Emily Hund author of "The Influencer Industry: The Quest for Authenticity on Social Media." (vox.com) An excerpt from “The People’s Tongue: Americans and the English Language” by Ilan Stavans. (wsj.com) A Q&A with Emre Soyer, co-author of "The Myth of Experience: Why We Learn the Wrong Lessons and Ways to Correct Them." (davidepstein.substack.com) Behavior Smartphones are to blame for the rise in unhappiness, until further notice.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 10, 2023
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation and warehousing.
The Big Picture
MARCH 10, 2023
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Crypto Bank Had a Boring Collapse, Also Silicon Valley Bank : Elsewhere in boring maturity mismatches and a lack of deposit diversification. ( Money Stuff ) • Why daylight saving is so hard on the body — and what to do about it : Every process within the body, from sleep to metabolism, runs on an internal clock, known as circadian rhythm.
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 10, 2023
I will remember this week for the rest of my life. As an investor, you get used to stock market volatility. Economic volatility on the other hand has a way of sticking with you. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the Fed was driving an overheating economy at 150 miles per hour. And when it realized it was going too fast, it jammed on the brake pedal as hard as it could.
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Abnormal Returns
MARCH 5, 2023
Top clicks this week Some of the best nuggets from Warren Buffet's latest shareholder letter. (investmenttalk.substack.com) Do stocks always outperform bonds over the long run? (mailchi.mp) Eight personal finance debates you can pretty much ignore. (thomaskopelman.com) Is it really a mistake to have saved too much for retirement? (humbledollar.com) A look at how to 'avoid financial disasters' for HNW individuals.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 7, 2023
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for January. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for December. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Continues Single-Digit Slowdown in January CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for January 2023.
The Big Picture
MARCH 6, 2023
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Silicon Valley Confronts the End of Growth. It’s a New Era for Tech Stocks. Silicon Valley could use a reboot. The biggest players aren’t growing, and more than a few are seeing sharp revenue declines. Regulators seem opposed to every proposed merger, while legislators push for new rules to crack down on the internet giants.
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 5, 2023
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 70% of private industry workers had access to a workplace retirement plan in 2021. Just 51% of them participated in those plans. It’s estimated more than 100 million Americans are covered by a defined contribution retirement plan. Those plans hold something like $11 trillion. That’s a lot of money but is it enough to retire comfortably?
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 4, 2023
Something interesting happened this week that has never happened before. According to Ryan Detrick, three weeks ago, AAII bulls made a 52-week high. And then stocks fell, and bulls went into the fetal position. Bears now outnumber bulls almost two to one. This about-face happened at a breakneck speed never before witnessed. Here’s the chart from Liz Ann Sonders.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 6, 2023
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.6% week-over-week. Usually inventory bottoms in early February, so we'd expect inventory to bottom seasonally soon. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last five years: 2023: -11.0K 2022: -3.7K 2021: -11.5K 2020: +1.0K 2019: -1.4K Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
The Big Picture
MARCH 7, 2023
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • A 120-Year-Old Company Is Leaving Tesla in the Dust : Tesla had me convinced, for a while, that it was a cool company. fundamentally, its cars had no competition. If you wanted an electric car that could go more than 250 miles between charges, Tesla was your only choice for the better part of a decade. ( New York Times ) see also Tesla Offers an Unprecedented Look at the Bench Behind Elon Musk : In a clear response to investor criticism, the CEO shared t
A Wealth of Common Sense
MARCH 8, 2023
Short-term interest rates continue to charge higher as the economy remains stronger than anticipated. We’re looking at 5% yields across the board for short-term government bonds. Some people will still scoff at these yields by reminding you that inflation is still 6% but let’s be honest — right or wrong, most investors think in nominal terms, not real.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
The Irrelevant Investor
MARCH 9, 2023
This post is for people outside of the financial services industry who might be wondering how one bank (Silvergate) lost 42% today while another one (Silicon Valley Bank) fell 60%. Silvergate banked virtually the entire crypto industry, including FTX. The largest banks had no interest in dealing with crypto companies, so Silvergate stepped in and experienced enormous growth over the last few years.
Calculated Risk
MARCH 8, 2023
From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 million on the last business day of January , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) increased. emphasis added The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark
The Big Picture
MARCH 4, 2023
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • You Are Not a Parrot And a chatbot is not a human. And a linguist named Emily M. Bender is very worried what will happen when we forget this. We go around assuming ours is a world in which speakers — people, creators of products, the products themselves — mean to say what they say and expect to live with the implications of their words.
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