Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 27, 2022

By Jamie Hopkins, Managing Partner, Wealth Solutions. The SECURE 2.0 Act has passed, making it the largest retirement legislation since the original Secure Act hit in the late 2019. As 55% of Americans say they don’t have enough saved for retirement, this bipartisan legislation primarily seeks to make it easier to contribute to retirement plans and use those funds appropriately for their needs in retirement.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Source: QAD Blog. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. It iss extremely challenging to select the right sector at the right time (and for the right reasons). Almost nobody does this well consistently over time. Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 29, 2022

Markets The energy sector dominated in 2022, and it wasn't even close. (capitalspectator.com) The stock market is not a Ponzi scheme. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Here is Eddy's 2023 Buy List. (crossingwallstreet.com) Companies Inside the Southwest Airlines ($LUV) meltdown. (wsj.com) Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) stock rode higher egg prices all year, until today.

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Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 28, 2022

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. And nearly 3 years to the day after its predecessor was passed, the U.S.

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Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Pragmatic Capitalism

DECEMBER 29, 2022

Here is our 2023 investment outlook. I did this a little differently this year by providing a scenario analysis with different probability distributions.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 27, 2022

Markets The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. (humbledollar.com) Commodity returns stood out in 2022. (capitalspectator.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. (topdowncharts.substack.com) Strategy There is a big difference between forecasting stock and bond returns. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Why you need to look at base rates when forecasting stock returns.

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Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 246

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 28, 2022

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. And nearly 3 years to the day after its predecessor was passed, the U.S.

Tax Planning 246

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The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 24, 2022

Wishing you all a happy holiday season and a bright new year. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and don’t forget to take some time away from the screen. Especially this year! I’ll be headed down to South Florida as I usually do for the last week of the year. It’s one of the few family traditions we have that the kids are still excited about now that they’re both teenagers.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 27, 2022

This week, we speak with Charlie Ellis, Chair of the Yale Endowment, Vanguard Board member, and founder of Greenwich Associates. In addition to that CV, Ellis is is the author of 19 books, including the investment classic Winning the Loser’s Game. His most recent book is Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business.

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Investing Investments Ethics Sales 167

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Personal finance Nobody knows what is going to happen in the stock market next year. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Three ways to simplify your portfolio in 2023. (morningstar.com) Some common personal finance misunderstandings including 'Extending your tax return filing doesn’t extend your ability to pay.' (flowfp.com) The more you know about money, the less you need to think about it.

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Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the passage of “SECURE Act 2.0” has brought a wide range of changes to the world of retirement planning. And given the variety of planning opportunities created by the legislation – from the raising of the beginning age for RMDs to the ability to transfer funds from 529 plans to Roth IRAs – advisors have a significant opportunity t

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.64% in November from 0.67% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.33% in November 2021. This is slightly below the pre-pandemic lows. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

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Portfolio 144

The Irrelevant Investor

DECEMBER 24, 2022

A week ago I was in a room with a hundred people and asked the following question: How many of you think the S&P 500 takes out its October low? At least 80% of the people raised their hands. I then asked, how many of you think we’re in a recession or will be in 2023? Everyone who had their hand raised for the first question kept it in the air for the second.

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Accounting

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 27, 2022

Research A look at the trade-offs of rebalancing frequency. (corporate.vanguard.com) How trend following works during different market regimes. (quantpedia.com) Why ESG portfolios need to be optimized. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) A rave review for Eric Balchunas' book "The Bogle Effect." (alphaarchitect.com).

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Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 26, 2022

As 2022 comes to a close, I am once again so thankful to all of you, the ever-growing number of readers who continue to regularly visit this Nerd’s Eye View Blog (and share the content with your friends and colleagues, which we greatly appreciate!). This year has been challenging for many financial advisors as they help their clients (and their own firms!

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. For the week ending December 24th, active inventory was up 63.1% year-over-year (YoY), up from 58.1% YoY last week. New listings were down 5.7% YoY , the smallest YoY decrease since July. This small YoY decrease in new listings might be related to the holidays. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 30, 2022

I’ve been getting a lot of pundit outlook pieces for 2023 in my inbox these past few weeks. The onset of a new year is a time for making lists of predictions, surprises and black swan possibilities. There are few sure things when it comes to the markets so I don’t put a lot of stock into predictions. You could say the stock market will open at 9:30 am est and close at 4 pm est during regular market hours but t.

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Marketing Marketing 120

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' (awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. (morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.' (safalniveshak.com) 11 ideas that stuck from 2022 including the 'power of quitting.

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Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 29, 2022

For many seasoned financial advisors, the road toward building a career and a business can be challenging and rewarding. And even though most advisors would agree that the road to success involves many years of hard work and sacrifice, each advisor’s path to ultimate success can consist of massively different experiences. In our 102nd episode of Kitces & Carl, Michael Kitces and client communication expert Carl Richards discuss the challenges they have each faced in their decades-long

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Financial Services Communication Financial Advisor Financial Planning 181

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010

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Wealth Management

DECEMBER 27, 2022

A strong start to 2022 marked by robust fundamentals and record levels of investment sales activity transitioned into a second half marked by uncertainty, leaving commercial real estate on unsteady footing heading into 2023.

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Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2022

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks setting boundaries with Emily Rassam who is the Senior Financial Planner for Archer Investment Management. (kitces.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak discuss the recent "The State of Retirement Income" report. (morningstar.com) Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese talk with Phil Pearlman about the connection between health and wealth planning.

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Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 29, 2022

For many seasoned financial advisors, the road toward building a career and a business can be challenging and rewarding. And even though most advisors would agree that the road to success involves many years of hard work and sacrifice, each advisor’s path to ultimate success can consist of massively different experiences. In our 102nd episode of Kitces & Carl, Michael Kitces and client communication expert Carl Richards discuss the challenges they have each faced in their decades-long

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Financial Services Communication Financial Advisor Financial Planning 130

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2022 Below are my ten questions for 2023 (I've been doing this every year for over a decade!). These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework to think about how the U.S. economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slo

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Economics Economy Sales Commission 138

Good Financial Cents

DECEMBER 29, 2022

According to a recent Gallup poll , more than half of American adults (58%) have money invested in the stock market. Although the median holdings (amounts invested) vary based on age, income, and other demographic factors, it’s clear that Americans see the value of investing — even if their exposure is limited to a workplace 401(k). If you have a fully-funded emergency fund and have an extra $1,000 that you don’t immediately need, you have a lot of options.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Markets A great reminder that S&P 500 industries go in and out of fashion. (ritholtz.com) Leveraged, long Bitcoin was not a good strategy in 2022. (bloomberg.com) Airlines Southwest Airlines ($LUV) seems to be back on track. (finance.yahoo.com) Fliers and front line workers bear the brunt of airline chaos. (nytimes.com) Food The price of cultivated meat is rapidly coming down.

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Financial Advising Food Management Marketing 189

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 27, 2022

Welcome back to the 313th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is John Stokes. John is the founder and CEO of John Stokes Financial, a hybrid advisory firm based in Irvine, California that oversees more than $400 million in assets under management*, for 1,800 client households. What's unique about John, though, is how he has built an expertise in layoff transitions and leveraged corporate layoff workshops – that large firms hire him to come in and

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The Irrelevant Investor

DECEMBER 24, 2022

Articles It is painful to be wrong in public. (By Mario Gabriele) Wisdom is knowing the right thing to do at the right time. (By Dave Nadig) If a bubble is a good idea gone too far, the $10tn global market for private investing in everything from debt to companies to real estate may be one. (By Ruchir Sharma) There are three realistic scenarios for the U.S. economy from here (By Ben Carlson) Podcasts We hold 95% of the th.

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