The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The full extent of the benefits to real estate investment of lower rates will also depend on whether the Fed sticks a soft landing.
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Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" (collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. (morningstar.com) Paying for stuff is getting complicated. (sherwood.news) Buying the dip isn't easy, or particularly profitable.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0% q/q saar in the final official estimate. [Sept 27th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the PCE report were slightly softer.
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The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. She has been published at Bloomberg, New York Magazine, FT, and the NYT. Her new book “ In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work ” just came out this Summer. We discuss how she came up with the idea of a “ Vibecession ” and how it became a popular New York Times guest essay.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gamified trading apps and niche ETFs have a cost that’s harder to spot but is little different from the damage inflicted on portfolios by high fees.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Note: This is a repeat sales index (like Case-Shiller and FHFA). ICE is releasing this index early this month. Several cities in Florida are now seeing year-over-year price declines (as inventory surges). From ICE: • Home prices continued to cool in August, with prices up +3.0% from the same time last year according to the ICE Home Price Index, marking the slowest rate of home price growth in over a year • On an adjusted basis prices rose by +0.12% in the month – the slowest adjusted monthly gro
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
Over the last 60 years, the top Federal marginal tax bracket has steadily decreased from over 90% in the 1950s and 60s to 'just' 37% today. However, with the national debt expanding rapidly, observers of U.S. tax policy are predicting that Congress will inevitably be forced to again increase tax rates in order to raise revenue and balance the national budget – and that the current regime of relatively low tax rates will prove to be a temporary phenomenon.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
The impact lower rates are likely to have on private credit funds goes beyond an expected decline in yields.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Markets The U.S. stock market is up 35 of the past 52 weeks. (sherwood.news) The U.S. is 26% of global GDP. The stock market makes up 63% of global market cap. (mailchi.mp) The Fed It's not unusual for the Fed to cut rates when stocks are at an all-time high. (awealthofcommonsense.com) We give the Fed way more credit than they deserve. (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) Fed members talk WAY too much these days.
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It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the July Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 74% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli has shown a sharp increase in the number of affluent investors willing to pay for advice, which on the one hand reflects the increasing financial complexity in peoples' lives (while they've also gotten busier than ever at work and at home) to the extent that they're more willing to work with someone to navigate those financial challenges; while al
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Don’t let the uncertainty about future tax policy interfere with taking action to meet your client’s goals.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Books A look at "Opus: The Cult of Dark Money, Human Trafficking, and Right-Wing Conspiracy Inside the Catholic Church" by Gareth Gore. (nymag.com) An excerpt from “Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists and Dunces who Burned Down the House,” by Dana Milbank. (wapo.st) A Q&A with Alok Sama author of "The Money Trap: Lost Illusions Inside the Tech Bubble.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely any time soon - however, as expected, months-of-supply is back to 2019 levels.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Starting a new firm can be a nerve-wracking time for an entrepreneurially minded financial advisor, as making the jump involves a significant amount of professional and financial risk. Nonetheless, after a year or 2 in business, some firm owners will find that their plate is becoming full and their available time is shrinking as they balance servicing current clients with marketing for new ones and also possibly managing staff.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
The collaboration brings together the tax management technology of Vestmark with the highly scalable model construction capabilities of BlackRock.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 21, 2024
Autos The minivan was the perfect family vehicle. Why it became passe. (msn.com) Some automation that is happening short of autonomous vehicles. (freethink.com) How GM ($GM) EVs can access Superchargers. (theverge.com) The most reliable auto brands according to CR. (visualcapitalist.com) Transport Why freight trains are getting longer. (wsj.com) The unanticipated challenges of switching to electric buses.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 716,000 Annual Rate in August Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 716 thousand. The previous three months were revised up. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 21, 2024
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • America may be on the brink of an epic vibe shift : Stock prices at records, gas prices falling, and the Fed is cutting. Will it be enough to lift the sour consumer mood that set in during the pandemic? ( Sherwood ) • The Mr. Beast Memo is a Guide to the Gen Z Workforce: Mr.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The bar is only getting higher for retirement plan advisors.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Markets Most stocks are working right now. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Some investments are an IQ test. (downtownjoshbrown.com) It's easy to get distracted these days as an investor. (youngmoney.co) Finance ETF assets in the U.S. just hit $10 trillion. (finance.yahoo.com) A Q&A with Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood ($HOOD). (fastcompany.com) OpenAI Why is everybody seemingly leaving OpenAI?
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through August 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.2% year-over-year in August, up from 5.0 in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in August , up from 5.2% in July, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gallup has a poll that asks Americans what income strata they belong in. The results are relatively stable over the past 20+ years: Most people say middle class while very few people think they are upper class. The Pew Research Center has a new tool that allows you to enter your income and see where it is you fit both nationally and locally. Their numbers show the Gallup poll is right on the money as far as middle-class.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Maintaining and getting the most out of your CRM’s data takes some effort.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Markets U.S. earnings estimates, and margins, continue to tick higher in 2024. (carsongroup.com) Covid was boon for U.S. corporate profitability. (sherwood.news) Strategy How would you do if had tomorrow's newspaper today? (ft.com) Investing is simple but not easy. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Finance Not every sovereign wealth fund is created alike.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 46.8% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 20th, inventory was at 725 thousand (7-day average), compared to 714 thousand the prior week. This is the highest level of inventory since May 2020.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
The bull market of the 1980s and 1990s is the stuff dreams are made of.1 The S&P 500 was up nearly 18% per year over the course of those two decades.2 It’s one of the great bull markets in history. But if we want to get picky, the bull market didn’t truly start until 1982. There were back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82. You had a 17% correction in 1980 along with a near-30% bear market that bottome.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Revolut Invest will offer nearly 5,000 assets on debut, including US and European stocks, exchange-traded funds, commodities and bonds, as well as new products such as contracts for difference.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Podcasts Josh and Michael talk with Peter Mallouk, founder and CEO of Creative Planning. (youtube.com) Carl Richards and Michael Kitces talk about managing your firm knowing that market-related revenue declines happen. (kitces.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Isaac Presley about how to create more intentional goals. (podcasts.apple.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talks estate planning for business owners.
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