The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" (collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. (morningstar.com) Paying for stuff is getting complicated. (sherwood.news) Buying the dip isn't easy, or particularly profitable.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2024
Over the last 60 years, the top Federal marginal tax bracket has steadily decreased from over 90% in the 1950s and 60s to 'just' 37% today. However, with the national debt expanding rapidly, observers of U.S. tax policy are predicting that Congress will inevitably be forced to again increase tax rates in order to raise revenue and balance the national budget – and that the current regime of relatively low tax rates will prove to be a temporary phenomenon.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gallup has a poll that asks Americans what income strata they belong in. The results are relatively stable over the past 20+ years: Most people say middle class while very few people think they are upper class. The Pew Research Center has a new tool that allows you to enter your income and see where it is you fit both nationally and locally. Their numbers show the Gallup poll is right on the money as far as middle-class.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. She has been published at Bloomberg, New York Magazine, FT, and the NYT. Her new book “ In This Economy?: How Money & Markets Really Work ” just came out this Summer. We discuss how she came up with the idea of a “ Vibecession ” and how it became a popular New York Times guest essay.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Starting a new firm can be a nerve-wracking time for an entrepreneurially minded financial advisor, as making the jump involves a significant amount of professional and financial risk. Nonetheless, after a year or 2 in business, some firm owners will find that their plate is becoming full and their available time is shrinking as they balance servicing current clients with marketing for new ones and also possibly managing staff.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
The bull market of the 1980s and 1990s is the stuff dreams are made of.1 The S&P 500 was up nearly 18% per year over the course of those two decades.2 It’s one of the great bull markets in history. But if we want to get picky, the bull market didn’t truly start until 1982. There were back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-82. You had a 17% correction in 1980 along with a near-30% bear market that bottome.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 21, 2024
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • America may be on the brink of an epic vibe shift : Stock prices at records, gas prices falling, and the Fed is cutting. Will it be enough to lift the sour consumer mood that set in during the pandemic? ( Sherwood ) • The Mr. Beast Memo is a Guide to the Gen Z Workforce: Mr.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Books A look at "Opus: The Cult of Dark Money, Human Trafficking, and Right-Wing Conspiracy Inside the Catholic Church" by Gareth Gore. (nymag.com) An excerpt from “Fools on the Hill: The Hooligans, Saboteurs, Conspiracy Theorists and Dunces who Burned Down the House,” by Dana Milbank. (wapo.st) A Q&A with Alok Sama author of "The Money Trap: Lost Illusions Inside the Tech Bubble.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli has shown a sharp increase in the number of affluent investors willing to pay for advice, which on the one hand reflects the increasing financial complexity in peoples' lives (while they've also gotten busier than ever at work and at home) to the extent that they're more willing to work with someone to navigate those financial challenges; while al
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while 2Q GDP came in at 3.0% q/q saar in the final official estimate. [Sept 27th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of yesterday’s durable goods report and this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report were stronger than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the PCE report were slightly softer.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
The U.S. economy grew at an expected pace during the second quarter of this year. Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.99% in Q2 2024, according to the final estimate. The latest estimate is the same as the forecasted 3.0% growth and is a pickup from the Q1 2024 GDP final estimate of 1.6%.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Strategy Beware anyone offering high, guaranteed returns. (wsj.com) Better process leads to better outcomes. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Immigration Noah Smith, "Trump’s lies about the Haitians of Springfield have given America a glimpse of the dark vision that lies beneath the populist anger." (noahpinion.blog) Immigrants are helping revitalize Rust Belt cities like Springfield, OH.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
Gamified trading apps and niche ETFs have a cost that’s harder to spot but is little different from the damage inflicted on portfolios by high fees.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Note: This is a repeat sales index (like Case-Shiller and FHFA). ICE is releasing this index early this month. Several cities in Florida are now seeing year-over-year price declines (as inventory surges). From ICE: • Home prices continued to cool in August, with prices up +3.0% from the same time last year according to the ICE Home Price Index, marking the slowest rate of home price growth in over a year • On an adjusted basis prices rose by +0.12% in the month – the slowest adjusted monthly gro
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 22, 2024
Studying market history has made me a better investor. Calculating historical performance data is one of my go-to moves for this blog. It helps provide some insight into the potential risks and range of outcomes in the markets. Market history also helps keep you grounded. It’s important to understand the booms and busts — the South Sea Bubble, the panic of 1907, the roaring 20s, the Great Depression, the Nifty.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Markets The U.S. stock market is up 35 of the past 52 weeks. (sherwood.news) The U.S. is 26% of global GDP. The stock market makes up 63% of global market cap. (mailchi.mp) The Fed It's not unusual for the Fed to cut rates when stocks are at an all-time high. (awealthofcommonsense.com) We give the Fed way more credit than they deserve. (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) Fed members talk WAY too much these days.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Financial advisors’ confidence in the current state of the economy sank last month to its lowest point year-to-date, while optimism in the stock market continued to rise.
Alpha Architect
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
While the skewness metric did demonstrate that it could select funds with managers skilled a security selection, the fund’s expenses and implementation meant that the fund was just about able to cover its expenses, and that was before the negative impact of active management on after-tax returns—and the finding was not statistically significant at even the 10% level of confidence.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the July Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 74% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Markets Most stocks are working right now. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Some investments are an IQ test. (downtownjoshbrown.com) It's easy to get distracted these days as an investor. (youngmoney.co) Finance ETF assets in the U.S. just hit $10 trillion. (finance.yahoo.com) A Q&A with Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood ($HOOD). (fastcompany.com) OpenAI Why is everybody seemingly leaving OpenAI?
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024
According to SEC Enforcement Director Gurbir Grewal, Qatalyst Partners did not have to pay a monetary penalty because it self-reported the results of its investigation.
Trade Brains
SEPTEMBER 21, 2024
India’s business landscape is buzzing with excitement. Big companies are preparing to showcase their star players in the stock market. There’s something for everyone, from electric cars to green energy, from loans to insurance. These upcoming IPOs aren’t just about raising money. They’re about shaping India’s economic future.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely any time soon - however, as expected, months-of-supply is back to 2019 levels.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
Markets U.S. earnings estimates, and margins, continue to tick higher in 2024. (carsongroup.com) Covid was boon for U.S. corporate profitability. (sherwood.news) Strategy How would you do if had tomorrow's newspaper today? (ft.com) Investing is simple but not easy. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Finance Not every sovereign wealth fund is created alike.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 23, 2024
The full extent of the benefits to real estate investment of lower rates will also depend on whether the Fed sticks a soft landing.
A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 26, 2024
The Roth Man himself, Bill Sweet, joined me on the show this week to discuss questions about taxes in marriage, retirement withdrawal strategies, the tax implications of selling farmland and how to manage tax rates in early retirement.
Advisor Perspectives
SEPTEMBER 27, 2024
Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.23% in August and is up 5.4% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.14% month-over-month and up 3.1% year-over-year.
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