The Big Picture

APRIL 11, 2024

Confused about where we are today? A favorite exercise is to go back to first principles to consider how we got to where we are. (That is a favorite way to find fresh insights). On the equity side, you have to go back a century or so. Equities were considered speculative endeavors, best suited for gamblers and punters. The exceptions? A handful of “Widows & Orphan” stocks, like Ma Bell, some railroads, utilities and the rare bank that was not suffering regular runs.

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Commission Taxes Management Electronics 350

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 7, 2024

Also on the site Better investors make fewer decisions. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Two stocks accounted for a third of the Russell 2000's 5.2% return in Q1. (wsj.com) How major asset classes performed in March 2024. (capitalspectator.com) How to choose among total stock market ETFs. (humbledollar.com) Hyundai and Kia are crushing it in the U.S.

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Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 10, 2024

Financial advicers are intimately familiar with the phrase, "Past results are not indicative of future performance." Every document that considers the facts around any particular asset class will invariably include that disclaimer, but constructing a portfolio consisting of a mix of equities, fixed income, and other assets requires investors and advicers to make some fundamental assumptions around long-term expected returns and correlations between assets. 3 common assumptions that have driven a

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Asset Allocation Wealth Accumulation Assets Portfolio 245

A Wealth of Common Sense

APRIL 8, 2024

A reader sent me the following chart asking for my thoughts: I honestly don’t know who the creator of this chart is. I don’t know the intention of it either but the fact that the title contains the word collapse makes it sound scary. Knowing that housing prices in the U.S. are at all-time highs makes this chart seem suspect, but the data checks out.

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Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

The Big Picture

APRIL 9, 2024

Between book leave and COVID I have been pretty quiet lately. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening.

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Banking Manufacturing Economy 301

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 12, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study has found that many small- and mid-sized advisory firms that use "supported independence" platforms for their technology and back-office needs, have the potential to see greater growth in the years ahead given the efficiencies gained (and potential cost savings compared to creating a tech stack and hiring their own staff 'a la carte'), and give aspiring firm

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Financial Planner Insurance Recruitment Financial Advisor 224

A Wealth of Common Sense

APRIL 12, 2024

According to Redfin, we just hit another new all-time high in the median monthly payment (based on current home prices and mortgage rates): The median payment for a new purchase has doubled since 2021. Mortgage rates were back up to 7.4% this week. Nationwide housing prices are still are all-time highs and up around 50% since the end of 2019. There has been this feeling of something has to give for a while now but nothi.

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Marketing Marketing 129

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2024

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The Real Crisis in Humanities Isn’t Happening at College Our problem is in the real world—not the ivory tower—and so is the solution. ( The Honest-Broker ) • Transparent Vice: How Vice’s execs burned down its newsroom : Once promised to become the brash young voice of news, it became a den of wild expenses, shady deals, and greed turned it into ‘a f **g clown show.’ ( The Verge ) • The Future of Am

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Economics Media Government Banking 157

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 12, 2024

Strategy Prospective bond returns are buoying the prospects for a 60/40 portfolio. (axios.com) How indexing came to dominate the investment business. (ritholtz.com) 15 investing principles including 'I believe managing one’s behavior is more important than managing one’s investments.' (betterletter.substack.com) Companies BP ($BP) is the cheapest stock among the giants.

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Food Financial Advising Media Economy 276

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 9, 2024

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 380th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Andrew Leonard. Andrew is the Managing Partner of Geometric Wealth Advisors, an RIA based in Washington, D.C., that oversees approximately $750 million in assets under management for about 200 client households. What's unique about Andrew, though, is how his firm has been able to triple its AUM in the past 4 years while offering a high-touch client experience by adopting the a

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 8, 2024

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 3.8% from the February bottom. Note: the decline this week was due to the Easter holiday, and seasonally, inventory usually increases following Easter. Click on graph for larger image.

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Alpha Architect

APRIL 12, 2024

While the empirical research on cross-sectional (long-short) momentum has shown that returns have been high, investors have also experienced huge drawdowns—momentum exhibits both high kurtosis and negative skewness. Since 1926 there have been several momentum crashes that featured short, but persistent, periods of highly negative returns. For example, from June to August 1932, the momentum portfolio lost about 91%, followed by a second drawdown from April to July 1933.

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 8, 2024

Strategy It's way too easy to mislead someone with charts. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Once you start humble bragging, it's time to rein things in. (radreads.co) Companies Taiwan Semi ($TSM) is doubling down on its U.S. production plans. (arstechnica.com) The path to a new and improved Paramount Global ($PARA) is complex. (finance.yahoo.com) Global With a rate hike in the books, is Japan's economy finally normalizing?

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Financial Advising Economy Manufacturing Media 276

Advertisement

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

Accounting

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 8, 2024

Among the many client niches financial advisors serve, successful business owners are often seen as an attractive group to work with, given the complexity of their financial situations (meaning that advisors have significant room to add value) and that many fall into the High Net Worth (HNW) category with as much as $5 million (and more) in assets, giving advisors a chance to move 'upmarket'.

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Financial Advisor Clients Estate Planning Planning 130

Calculated Risk

APRIL 10, 2024

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2024.

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Food 128

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 9, 2024

The most important thing that determines how successful you are in life cannot be quantified. Success is a loaded word that means different things to everyone. At its core, success is happiness. Hard stop. If you’re rich and miserable, you’re not successful. There’s a hierarchy of happiness. At the foundational level is health. Without that, you have nothing.

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 11, 2024

Books An excerpt from "The Weight of Nature: How a Changing Climate Changes Our Brains" by Clayton Page Aldern. (grist.org) A Q&A with Steven Kurutz author of "American Flannel: How a Band of Entrepreneurs Are Bringing the Art and Business of Making Clothes Back Home." (insidehook.com) Annie Duke talks with Michael Norton, author of "From Habit to Ritual, Harness the Surprising Power of Everyday Actions.

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Management Investing Investments 275

Advertisement

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 11, 2024

Wholesale inflation heated up last month but came in slightly lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.6% in February to 2.1% in March.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 11, 2024

The DOL reported : In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000 , a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average.

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The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 10, 2024

I want to talk about the feelings we get when putting money to work at all-time highs. But first, a quick programming note. Two of the things I love the most are movies and business. Nobody talks about the intersection of my two favorite topics like Matt Belloni. I read him every week at Puck and listen to him every week on The Ringer’s The Town.

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Abnormal Returns

APRIL 10, 2024

Strategy How you implement a commodities allocation matters. (morningstar.com) Two things you probably don't need to worry about, including index concentration. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Closed-end funds have always been problematic. Now include the Destiny Tech 100 ($DXYZ) fund. (axios.com) IPOs Climate tech has an IPO problem. (semafor.com) Investors have waited a long time for the IPO window to reopen.

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Financial Advising Economy Media 269

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

A Wealth of Common Sense

APRIL 11, 2024

A reader asks: Instead of diversifying is it ever worth advising clients to build mental toughness? This would be similar to how we teach youth athletes to grow through losses and failures. Learning to take short term investing losses knowing over long term they will get larger gains in stocks. This is an excellent question because money is more about behavior than numbers.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2024

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 3.5% (31,101 carloads) in March 2024 from March 2023, their third straight monthly decline. Total carloads averaged 216,716 per week in March 2024, the fewest for any March in our records that begin in January 1988.

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Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 9, 2024

The headline number for the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 88.5 in March, the lowest level since 20212. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of 88.8 and marked the 27th straight month the index has been below the series average of 98.0.

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Numbers 119

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 9, 2024

Markets Investors are coming to terms with higher short-term interest rates. (nytimes.com) All the narrative rolling around the markets including 'Sticky inflation.' (ft.com) Crypto A spot Bitcoin ETF has provided crypto skeptics cover to get into the business. (barrons.com) The rise in Bitcoin has caused some long term holders to sell. (coindesk.com) Finance Financial institutions are increasingly relying on the public cloud operators.

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Financial Advising Manufacturing Economy Media 263

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Wealth Management

APRIL 9, 2024

Adopting an adaptive approach to retirement planning acknowledges the dynamic nature of spending patterns and emphasizes flexibility in financial strategies.

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Retirement Planning Retirement Planning 126

Calculated Risk

APRIL 6, 2024

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year • ICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of "Golden-Handcuffs" on Mortgage Payments • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Immigration and Household Formation This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

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Marketing Marketing 120

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 10, 2024

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released for March puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 3.48%. The latest reading keeps inflation below the 3.74% average since the end of the Second World War for the 10th straight month. However, inflation remains above the 10-year moving average which is now at 2.79%.

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