Sat.Mar 16, 2024 - Fri.Mar 22, 2024

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Do Magazine Covers Contain Market Signals?

The Big Picture

There has been a lot of chatter about magazine covers lately; I thought I might clarify some of the with this post, originally published in Bloomberg on December 27, 2017, along with commentary from Ben and Josh addressing the sdame issue. The key takeaway: The value of the signal here is just about zero. The 2017 Barron’s cover (above) showing Apple’s extravagant new headquarters and suggesting that the company’s market value would reach $1 trillion in 2018 generated some chat

Marketing 336
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Thursday links: the minimum level of diversification

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the real world." (capitalgains.thediff.co) No matter the result, remember other stuff could have happened. (systematicindividualinvestor.com) Reddit The Reddit ($RDDT) IPO has priced.

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Identifying Your Own “Soft Assets” To Turn COIs Into Powerful Referral Champions

Nerd's Eye View

Soliciting prospect referrals can often be an effective way for financial advisors to grow their firms with clients who are ready to act and who will benefit from the firm since many referrals come from sources that are familiar not just with the advisor and the services they offer, but also with the prospect being referred and the needs they seek. This is particularly true when referrals come from Centers of Influence (COIs) – professionals who are trusted by their circles to influence id

Assets 246
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Are Index Funds Propping Up the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Lots of podcasts have discussed how large cap indexes just keep going up, and maybe that’s pushing P/E ratios too high from people buying index funds (me included). At the same time, mid- and small-cap indices have not seen the same overall growth. Is there a risk that the S&P 500 gets out of hand relative to true value and then there is a fall as all exit at once?

Marketing 134
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How a Physics Whiz Made a Fortune Betting on Nature’s Catastrophes : John Seo used his scientific knowledge to develop a winning formula for trading catastrophe bonds — a market that’s booming thanks to climate change and inflation. ( Bloomberg Green ) • How neuroscience can help you make tough decisions – with no regrets : Most people are too risk-averse when it

Clients 277

More Trending

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (March 23-24)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the SEC has recently been cracking down on firms for recordkeeping failures related to electronic communications, including their use of text messaging with prospects and clients. Which could serve as a warning to firms to heighten their supervision of their advisors' texting practices and whether they are being recorded properly (perhaps with the help of available archivi

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 129
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MiB: Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Liz Ann Sonders , managing director and chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co , with $8.5 trillion on its platforms. She has been named best market strategist by Kiplinger Personal Finance and one of SmartMoney magazine’s Power 30. She has also been named to Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in Finance.

Investing 182
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Research links: assessing quant models

Abnormal Returns

Behavior Another form of home bias at work. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Is there an issue with self-reported happiness measures? (papers.ssrn.com) Factors A mechanism by which quality stocks outperform. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) On the benefits of combining fast and slow momentum models. (alphaarchitect.com) Harvesting premia requires sticky capital.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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How Communicating Guardrails Withdrawal Strategies Can Improve Client Experience And Decrease Stress

Nerd's Eye View

Monte Carlo simulations have become a central method of conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client's life, advisors often place special emphasis on this data point when they present a financial plan.

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So Much Money Everywhere

A Wealth of Common Sense

There’s a bull market in bull market indicators flashing red right now. Barron’s had a bullish cover: The Economist too: The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 60% since the start of 2023. Nvidia is up 500% in that time. There are tens of billions of dollars flowing into the new bitcoin ETFs. Speculation in tech stocks, crypto, NFTs, options, day trading, etc. makes it feel like we picked up right where we left off.

Marketing 131
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At the Money: Benefits of Quantitative Investing

The Big Picture

At the Money: Benefits of Quantitative Investing (March 20, 2024) Throughout history, investing has been a lot more “Art” than “Science.” But today, data is widely available and it’s a key tool you can use to enhance your portfolio returns. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Jim O’Shaughnessy, former chairman and founder of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (now part of Franklin Templeton) and author of the New York Times bestselling book, “What Works on Wall Stre

Investing 162
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Personal finance links: striving for more

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Robin Powell talks with Ben Carlson about why the U.S. stock market has held up. (youtube.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Jim O'Shaughnessy about the benefits of a quantitative investment approach. (ritholtz.com) Dan Haylett talks with Christine Benz about her new book "How to Retire: 20 Lessons For A Happy, Successful & Wealthy Retirement.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 134: Helping Clients Who Can’t Ever Get To ‘Enough’ (And When They Don’t Really Want To)

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advicers, helping long-time clients identify and progress toward their goals eventually transitions into conversations around the best ways to enjoy the fruits of their labor once they reach them. Yet, for some clients, making the shift into retirement (or any other new stage of their lives) can often be a challenge for myriad reasons, which places the advisor in a unique position to help these clients understand the roadblocks they face and explore ways to overcome these obst

Clients 220
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Housing March 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.3% Week-over-week, Up 22.2% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 2.7% from the 2024 February bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 15th, inventory was at 507 thousand (7-day average), compared to 501 thousand the prior week.

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Tracking Error is a Feature, Not a Bug

Alpha Architect

The benefits of diversification are well known. In fact, it’s been called the only free lunch in investing. Investors who seek to benefit from diversification of the sources of risk and return of their portfolios must accept that adding unique sources of risk means that their portfolio will inevitably experience what is called tracking error—a financial term used as a measure of the performance of a portfolio relative to the performance of a benchmark, such as the S&P 500.

Portfolio 118
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Saturday links: four-light traffic signals

Abnormal Returns

Autos Not every car (or SUV) has the same impact on cities. (reasonstobecheerful.world) 12 volt batteries are the Achilles heel of EVs. (wsj.com) High pollen levels are associated with more auto accidents. (nber.org) Some problems that Tesla ($TSLA) Cybertruck owners are having. (slate.com) Hank Green on why so many new cars look like 'wet putty.' (youtube.com) How four-light traffic signals work.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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#FA Success Ep 377: Navigating A Major Health Event While Keeping Your Advisory Firm Going And Growing, With Meredith Moore

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 377th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Meredith Moore. Meredith is the Founder & CEO of Artisan Financial Strategies, a hybrid advisory firm based in Alpharetta, Georgia, that oversees $77M in assets under management for 120 client households. What's unique about Meredith, though, is how she was able to keep her firm open, navigating through and ultimately growing to more than $1M of annual revenue, despite a diagnosis in 2

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 209,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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DOL Fiduciary Rule in Final Stretch as AARP, Insured Retirement Institute Set White House Meetings

Wealth Management

Supporters and critics of the proposed rule are setting up discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, one of the last steps before the final rule will be revealed.

Insurance 120
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week 40 lessons at age 40 including 'Life advice is like clothing.' (markmanson.net) Travis Kling, "The evidence for the rise of Financial Nihilism is all around us." (epsilontheory.com) The simplest explanation for the disappearance of MH370 is the most likely. (thedailybeast.com) Why this crypto rally is different. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Are the Magnificent Seven all that overvalued?

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive?

The Irrelevant Investor

Stocks in the United States are more expensive than they used to be. Like, a lot more. You used to be able to buy a blue-chip company for fifteen times earnings. There was a time, a normal non-recessionary time, when you could buy the S&P 500 for fifteen times earnings. Prior to the dotcom bubble, there was only one instance when U.S. stocks traded at 25x times inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous decade.

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Vaulted 9.5% in February, Largest Monthly Increase in a Year Existing-home sales climbed in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales jumped in the West, South and Midwest, and were unchanged in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales declined in all regions.

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Will There be a Fee War in the Housing Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

When my wife and I began the initial search for our first home, I was against using a realtor. We knew where we wanted to buy. We talked to the bank ahead of time so we knew our budget. We could search for homes online. We were in a good negotiating position because we didn’t have a house to sell (this was back in 2007 when it was hard to sell a house).

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Monday links: the ultimate anecdote

Abnormal Returns

IPOs Apple ($AAPL) and Google ($GOOGL) are exploring putting Google's AI on the iPhone. (spyglass.org) A closer look at Reddit's risks. (wired.com) Housing Austin's housing market is cooling off. (wsj.com) How home buying is going to change with a new commission regime. (thebasispoint.com) Economy National homebuilder confidence ticked up in March. (insights.finominal.com) Disruption of the Suez Canal is real.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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The Healthy Advisor: Leaning into a Diagnosis in the Family with Will Hoffman

Wealth Management

When advisor Will Hoffman’s son was diagnosed with a genetic disorder, he decided to set an example for his family around overcoming the struggles life may deal you.

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Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations and starts in December and January were revised up. Last month, I noted that permits held up better than starts in January, and that housing starts were impacted by the severe weather in January.

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SRM Contractors IPO Review 2024 – GMP, Financials And More

Trade Brains

SRM Contractors IPO Review: SRM Contractors is coming up with its IPO issue of Rs. 130.20 Cr which will open on 26th March 2024. The issue will close on 28th March and be listed on the exchange on 3rd April 2024. This article will analyze the GMP, Financials, strengths and weaknesses of the SRM Contractors IPO Review 2024. Keep reading to find out! SRM Contractors IPO Review – Company Overview SRM Contractors is an engineering, construction, and development Company engaged in constructing