Calculated Risk
JULY 26, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.1% year-over-year in June, down from 5.4% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in June , down from 5.5% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Wealth Management
JULY 23, 2024
Helium founder and partner Howard Morin explains the benefits of bridging financial planning with deep tax expertise.
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Abnormal Returns
JULY 21, 2024
Also on the site this week Why meme stocks and sh*tcoins are the logical outgrowth of the analytics revolution. (abnormalreturns.com) A lifetime subscription is anything but. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. (humbledollar.com) Rebalance your portfolio to tame risk, not to increase returns.
The Big Picture
JULY 24, 2024
At The Money: Behavior Beats Intelligence (July 24, 2024) We focus most of our investing efforts on information and knowledge. But is that where we generate the highest ROI? As it turns out, managing your behavior has a much greater impact on your returns than does any single data point. Full transcript below : ~~~ About this week’s guest: Morgan Housel is a partner at the Collaborative Fund and author of “ The Psychology of Money: Timeless lessons on wealth, greed, and happiness.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
JULY 26, 2024
Here is new working paper from Sylvain Leduc and Daniel J. Wilson at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the “pivoting” in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century Snow Belt to Su
Wealth Management
JULY 23, 2024
Funds focused on clean energy were among those posting the worst returns over the last year.
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Nerd's Eye View
JULY 26, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that Charles Schwab's latest RIA benchmarking study shows that firms saw significant AUM growth in 2023, thanks in part to strong equity market performance, but also thanks to organic growth initiatives that brought in additional assets from new and existing clients.
Calculated Risk
JULY 22, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 35.3% from the February seasonal bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 19th, inventory was at 668 thousand (7-day average), compared to 651 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.
Wealth Management
JULY 24, 2024
Robert A. Stanger & Co. raised its forecast for the year after strong inflows during the first half of 2024.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 24, 2024
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Darius Foroux, author of "The Stoic Path to Wealth: Ancient Wisdom for Enduring Prosperity." (peterlazaroff.com) Larry Wilmore talks with Scott Galloway author of "The Algebra of Wealth." (theringer.com) Noah Kagan talks with Bill Perkins author of "Die With Zero." (noahkagan.com) Dan Haylett talks about repurposing your life in retirement with Suzanne Campi.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 22, 2024
Although many advisory firms start out with a single person handling all the work of advising clients, bringing in new business, and managing operations and compliance, there's a limit to how many hours any one person can work, which also means that there's a cap on the amount of client growth a solo advisor can achieve before running up against their capacity limit.
Calculated Risk
JULY 24, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 617,000 Annual Rate in June Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 617 thousand. The previous three months were revised up sharply, combined. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Wealth Management
JULY 23, 2024
Delaware tops the list of best states to retire in 2024, while California and New York bring up the rear.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 26, 2024
The biz Spotify ($SPOT) is planning to add an even higher paid tier. (theverge.com) Is the worst over for the podcasting industry? (bloomberg.com) What's new in Overcast. (marco.org) Finance Matt Zeigler talks with Ryan Krueger, founder of Freedom Day Solutions, about his career path. (epsilontheory.com) Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Rich Falk-Wallace, founder and CEO of Arcana, about building risk management tools for pod shops.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 24, 2024
When the original SECURE Act was passed in December 2019, it brought sweeping changes to the post-death tax treatment of qualified retirement accounts. One of the biggest changes was to eliminate the prior "stretch" treatment of post-death distributions for most non-spouse beneficiaries, who are now subject to the so-called 10-Year Rule requiring beneficiaries to fully distribute inherited retirement accounts by the end of the 10th year following the original account owner's death.
Calculated Risk
JULY 26, 2024
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $50.4 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in June , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $37.7 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.6 billion (0.3 percent).
Wealth Management
JULY 25, 2024
The TAMP previously raised funding from Kayne Anderson Growth Capital and J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who also participated in the latest round.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 26, 2024
Strategy Our brains weren't built for investing. (safalniveshak.com) The small cap bounce back will make stock picking fun again. (scheplick.com) Fund management Is Vanguard, and by extension Blackrock ($BLK), getting too big for its own good? (riabiz.com) The Russell 2000 is a flawed index. (wsj.com) Manager selection is becoming more transparent. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Companies Alphabet ($GOOGL) makes more in interest income than the majority of the S&P 500 makes in earnings.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Nerd's Eye View
JULY 25, 2024
About a decade or so ago, one of the most pressing issues facing the financial advice industry was the threat of an imminent deluge of advisor retirements coupled with a paucity of succession plans to transition clients to the next generation. While that scenario has yet to materialize as initially feared, the fact remains that transitions do occur on a regular basis, often as older advisors either sell their practices in one fell swoop or gradually offload part of their book while still staying
Calculated Risk
JULY 25, 2024
The DOL reported : In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000 , a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 243,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 235,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average.
Wealth Management
JULY 22, 2024
Alexandra Romeo Boyles and Will Coughlin will be based out of Denver. The additions follow the firm attracting Northern Trust alum Tom Riley earlier this year.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 22, 2024
Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks practice management with Matt Ackermann, Chief Content Officer at Integrated Partners. (standarddeviationspod.com) Michael Kitces talks with Christi Van Rite who is the Founder of White River Consultants, a firm that provides administrative family office services to 17 ultra-high-net-worth households. (kitces.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talk about the pros and cons of Solo 401(k)s and SEP-IRAs.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Carson Wealth
JULY 25, 2024
Owning a business can be like parenting. You’ve likely experienced many sleepless nights and spent a countless amount of energy on your “baby.” Like parenting, being a business owner can be an enriching journey and make life worth the trip. To protect your business, you need the right mix of insurance. From the relationships that make your business run to the building it’s housed in, insurance can help prevent devastating financial losses or legal consequences.
Calculated Risk
JULY 24, 2024
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 617 thousand. The previous three months were revised up sharply, combined. Sales of new single-family houses in June 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Wealth Management
JULY 26, 2024
Financial advisors are still bullish on the prospects for the U.S. stock market, according to WealthManagement.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 24, 2024
Strategy For investors, inflation is the enemy. (disciplinefunds.com) Three investment myths, debunked. (morningstar.com) Crypto A big opening day for spot Ethereum ETFs. (theblock.co) An option for those who still want to custody their own Bitcoin. (theblock.co) AI Charlie Warzel, "Whether you believe that AI executives are delusional or genuinely on the verge of constructing a superintelligence, you should be concerned about how much power they’ve amassed.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
JULY 21, 2024
Hendrik Bessimbinder has produced some of my favorite stock market research. Bessimbinder discovered that four out of every seven stocks in the U.S. have underperformed cash (one-month T-bills) since 1926. And just 4% of companies accounted for all the wealth gains for the entire stock market in that time. The stock market runs on power laws over the long run.
Calculated Risk
JULY 25, 2024
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024 , according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment.
Wealth Management
JULY 24, 2024
The agency continues to ramp up its enforcement efforts.
Abnormal Returns
JULY 25, 2024
Books A rave review of "How Tyrants Fall" by Marcel Dirsus. (forkingpaths.co) Insights from "Maxims for Thinking Analytically" by Dan Levy. (novelinvestor.com) Jim Pethokoukis talks with Ruchir Sharma, author of "What Went Wrong with Capitalism." (fasterplease.substack.com) Business PE firm Patricof & Co. is doubling down on its relationships with pro athletes.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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