Sat.Jun 22, 2024 - Fri.Jun 28, 2024

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Inflation is Obvious But Wage Gains Seem Invisible

The Big Picture

I’ve been observing how radically unusual various sentiment readings have been for a few years now. It made little sense to me that the post-pandemic era saw sentiment levels far below major dislocations such as the ‘87 crash, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Dotcom implosion, or the 08-09 great financial crisis. We have tried to identify the causal factors by considering social media , increases in partisanship , ignorance, even trolling of pollsters.

Budgeting 321
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AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in May; Multi-family Billings Decline for 22nd Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 for the month , as more firms reported a decrease in billings in May than in April. In addition, there is increasing softness in the pipeline of new work coming into firms.

Clients 320
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Private Assets Front and Center at Morningstar Investment Conference

Wealth Management

Asset managers continue to launch investment products that resonate with advisors. But what assets work best in the space, and how to deploy them into client portfolios, remains up for debate.

Assets 299
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week There are two types of money people. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The traditional IRA looks less and less attractive. (thinkadvisor.com) What's different about the Magnificent Seven stocks. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What matters when your mortality stares you in the face. (humbledollar.com) The case for swapping large caps for small caps.

Investing 295
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Is The Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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#FASuccess Ep 391: Improving Efficiency (In A Solo Practice) By Eliminating What Clients Don’t Really Care About Anyway, With Christopher Jones

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 391st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Christopher Jones. Chris is the founder of Sparrow Wealth Management, an RIA based in Orlando, Florida, that oversees approximately $110 million in assets under management for 68 client households. What's unique about Chris, though, is how he has built a highly efficient solo practice that allows him to work fewer than 25 hours/ week to have more time for his family and manage

Clients 242
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Housing June 24th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.2% Week-over-week, Up 37.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 28.4% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 21st, inventory was at 634 thousand (7-day average), compared to 621 thousand the prior week.

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Research links: training and testing

Abnormal Returns

Alternatives Pension plans could generate equivalent returns with low-cost, index investments. (crr.bc.edu) Equity funds with VC investments don't outperform. (papers.ssrn.com) Just how big is the carried interest loophole. (papers.ssrn.com) 52 week highs Liquidity picks up at 52-week highs. (papers.ssrn.com) Do corporate bonds take note of 52-week stock highs?

Retail 289
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529-To-Roth IRA Rollovers: Taking Advantage Of The New Option To Move Education Savings To Retirement Savings

Nerd's Eye View

Traditionally, the challenge in using a 529 plan to save for higher education expenses has been figuring out how much to save to cover the beneficiary's college costs without overshooting and saving more in the 529 plan than is actually needed. Because while 529 plans' combination of tax-deferred growth on invested funds and tax-free withdrawals for qualified education expenses (plus many state-level tax deductions or credits on 529 plan contributions) make it a powerful savings vehicle for coll

Education 189
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NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 2.1% in May; Down 6.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1% , according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered reductions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 in May.

Sales 303
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Inflation’s Impact on Retirement, Taxes and Estate Planning

Wealth Management

Six ways to help clients gain peace of mind regarding inflation.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Saturday links: your immediate vicinity

Abnormal Returns

Autos On the barriers to continued growth in EV sales in the U.S. (ft.com) Car dealerships around the country are dealing with a software outage. (theverge.com) Fisker ($FSRN) has filed for bankruptcy. (wsj.com) The Tesla ($TSLA) Model Y is the most made-in America car. (axios.com) Congestion pricing Why congestion pricing has failed in NYC, so far.

Food 285
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Promoting The Financial Advice Industry ‘Sport’ Positively To Build Trust In The Client ‘Fan Base’

Nerd's Eye View

The requirements to run a successful, growing advisory firm are often less about doing the technical work with clients and more about marketing value to get prospects in the door in the first place. Yet, many firms' prospecting strategies have often relied on individual advisors being able to bring business to the firm instead of actively shaping and promoting the firm's own reputation.

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New Home Sales Decrease to 619,000 Annual Rate in May; Median New Home Price is Down 9% from the Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 619,000 Annual Rate in May Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 619 thousand , however the three previous months were revised up sharply. The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Sales 292
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Q&A: How Cliffwater Overcame the Hurdles to RIAs Investing in Private Credit

Wealth Management

The alternative investment manager was among the first to launch an interval fund in 2019, with a focus on private credit.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Thursday links: a wait-and-see approach

Abnormal Returns

Markets By this measure, the stock market is at record-high concentration. (axios.com) It's been awhile since we had a 2% stock market drop. (carsongroup.com) Strategy Investing is planning. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why you shouldn't care what other investors or the markets are doing. (safalniveshak.com) Companies Monster Beverage ($MNST) is unique not only for its stock performance.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (June 29-30)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study found that at a time when the number of SEC-registered broker-dealers and their registered representatives is declining, the number of SEC-registered RIAs, their assets under management, and the number of clients they serve all grew in 2023, reflecting the attractiveness of the RIA model to both advisors and clients alike and the ability for firms acro

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 5.5% YoY in May

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.4% year-over-year in May, down from 5.5% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.5% YoY in May , down from 5.6% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Family Offices Seek Alpha in Mega Trends

Wealth Management

Family offices can be strong predictors of future trends because of their uniquely long-term outlook.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Adviser links: a sense of purpose

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick talk digital assets with Ric Edelman. (youtube.com) Callie Cox talks with Jeff Benjamin about her new role at Ritholtz Wealth and the state of the markets and economy. (etf.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Nuala Walsh, author of "TUNE IN: How to Make Smarter Decisions In a Noisy World." (standarddeviationspod.com) Fisher Investments Some estimates on how much a stake in Fisher Investments went for.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 141: Creating The Space To Have More Meaningful Money Conversations With Clients

Nerd's Eye View

The practice of asking questions has always been an integral part of the financial planning process. In the early days of the advicer industry, those questions almost exclusively dealt with facts around a client's or prospect's financial situation to determine (ultimately) what products the adviser should recommend. However, given the industry's ongoing transition away from being primarily transaction-focused and towards being relationship-based, advicers have had to learn how to develop meaning

Clients 185
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2024. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Ex-Girlfriend May Get Windfall Due to Beneficiary Designation Snafu

Wealth Management

Legal battle over retirement account worth over $750,000.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Podcast links: the money in tennis

Abnormal Returns

Business Matte Reustle talks with Joseph Shaposhnik about the business of Motorola Solutions ($MSI). (joincolossus.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Peter Rawlison, CEO of Lucid Motors ($LCID). (ritholtz.com) Finance Ted Seides talks market narratives and more with Ben Hunt. (capitalallocators.com) Matt Zeigler talks with Epsilon Theory co-founder Rusty Guinn.

Assets 273
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MiB: Eva Shang, CEO, Legalist

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Eva Shang , co-founder, general partner, and chief executive officer of Legalist , an institutional alternative asset management firm. She leads the company’s 35-person team of engineers, attorneys, and analysts, and is a member of the firm’s valuation and investment committees. Before co-founding Legalist at 20, Eva studied economics at Harvard College.

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Personal Income increased 0.5% in May; Spending increased 0.2%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May: Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).

Food 200
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A Closer Look at AI in Family Offices

Wealth Management

Understand the risks to privacy, confidentiality and fiduciary responsibility and do your best to mitigate them.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Friday links: putting your phone down

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Is the small cap premium dead? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Home bias illustrated: the case of Canadian investors. (bnnbloomberg.ca) The financial markets are noisy. You need a path through. (marknewfield.substack.com) Companies Accenture ($ACN) is making bank on generative AI. (sherwood.news) Walgreens ($WBA) is closing hundreds of U.S. stores.

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Queen’s Catalog: $1 Billion Dollars…

The Big Picture

“ THEY ARE THE CHAMPIONS : Word has it that Sony Music has prevailed in the contest for Queen’s [link] recording and publishing rights and their attendant revenue—including that from the Disney deal—for which House Stringer and Platt has reportedly tendered the winning offer of a cool 1 billion pounds sterling. Disney, which owns the recording rights in North America thanks to the 1990 deal that cost the Mouse $10m, has hitherto paid a handsome royalty to Queen; that will go to Sony under

License 162
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Las Vegas May 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 4.6% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 2%

Calculated Risk

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics With festivals such as EDC, coupled with convention attendance ahead of last year, May saw the destination host more than 3.6M visitors, showing a healthy 4.6% YoY gain for the month. Among the churn of rotational shows, Waste Expo returned to Las Vegas in May (14k attendees, last here in May 2022), and the destination hosted the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo for the first time (10k+ attendees).

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Back to Work, Jim Dickson Launches Minority RIA Investment Firm

Wealth Management

With lessons learned from his previous experience running Sanctuary, Dickson's Elevation Point was formed with United Atlantic Capital’s Mark Penske and launches with the acquisition of Mount Yale Capital Group.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.