Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. Time to buy. (morningstar.com) Why everyone in finance seems to be doing deadlifts. (wealthmanagement.com) Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. (wsj.com) 15 more ideas from Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" including 'Investment must be thought of as more than stock selection or making a series of solid individual investment decisions.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 26, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Department of Labor released the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (a.k.a. the Fiduciary Rule 2.0), which is set to go into effect in September and (if it survives anticipated legal challenges) would represent a significant shift toward greater fiduciary standards in the financial services industry, including by defining as a fiduciary act a one-time recomm
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The Big Picture
APRIL 25, 2024
A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Some of this is that “long and variable lag” of higher rates starting to bite — but it’s not just that.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 23, 2024
There was a recent poll about my home state of Michigan where they asked people for their thoughts on the state of the nation’s economy today. Just 35% of people described the economy as excellent (6%) or good (29%) while 65% described it as either not so good (28%) or poor (37%). But when asked how they would describe their own personal financial situation these days, a majority of people (61%) described their circ.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 25, 2024
Books An excerpt from "Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and Why Everything We Do Matters" by Brian Klaas. (behavioralscientist.org) An excerpt from "The Age of Grievance" by Frank Bruni. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Erin A. Cech author of "The Trouble with Passion: How Searching for Fulfillment at Work Fosters Inequality." (annehelen.substack.com) An excerpt from "Alpine Rising: Sherpas, Baltis, and the Triumph of Local Climbers in the Greater Ranges" by Bernadette McDonald.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
APRIL 26, 2024
This week, we speak with Dr. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research , a provider of global investment strategies and asset-allocation analyses and recommendations. He previously served as Chief Investment Strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank’s US equities division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and t
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 21, 2024
In the early-1980s, Robert Shiller set out to answer the question: Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? The idea was to figure out how well the stock market tracks the present value of future cash flows in the short-term. Shiller concluded that, no, stock prices do not neatly track fundamentals. He updated that data in his book Irrational Exuberance: The cash flows move very l.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Rates Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." (barrons.com) You likely don't need a long-term bond fund. (wsj.com) Strategy The market's most important lessons have to be experienced. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Financial trends reverse just when they seem inevitable. (humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 24, 2024
Over the past few decades, advicers have used Monte Carlo analysis tools to communicate to clients if their assets and planned level of spending were sufficient for them to realize their goals while (critically) not running out of money in retirement. More recently, however, the Monte Carlo "probability of success/failure" framing has attracted some criticism, as it can potentially alter the way that a client perceives risk, leading them to make less-than-ideal decisions.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
The Big Picture
APRIL 21, 2024
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘Water is more valuable than oil’: the corporation cashing in on America’s drought : In an unprecedented deal, a private company purchased land in a tiny Arizona town – and sold its water rights to a suburb 200 miles away. Local residents fear the agreement has ‘opened Pandora’s box.’ ( The Guardian ) • Why don’t rich people eat anymore?
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 26, 2024
Here’s the lede from a Bloomberg article about rich people trying to avoid taxes in New York City: At New Jersey’s Teterboro and Long Island’s Islip airports, dozens of private jets destined for Florida take off at times such as 11:42 p.m. or 11:54 p.m. Over at JFK, a regular flight from San Juan, Puerto Rico, arrives at a seemingly purposeful time: about 15 minutes after midnight.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 24, 2024
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. peaked in 2012. (sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. (bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest. (morningstar.com) The iShares Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) is a runaway hit. (theblock.co) Retail investors trade leveraged ETFs way too much. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) TikTok The clock is now ticking for a TikTok divestiture.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 23, 2024
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 382nd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Tyson Ray. Tyson is the CEO of FORM Wealth Advisors, a hybrid advisory firm based in Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, that oversees approximately $900 million in assets under management for just over 800 client households. What's unique about Tyson, though, is how he has developed a planning process he calls their "Total Relationship" approach, which puts an emphasis on determining a c
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 26, 2024
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent).
Alpha Architect
APRIL 26, 2024
Hibbert, Kang, Kumar and Mishra provided us with yet another explanation: social media is providing analysts with information that reduces their forecasting errors. The result has been an increase in market efficiency, leading to a reduction in the PEAD anomaly. The bottom line is that the ability to generate alpha continues to be under assault—trying to outperform the market by stock selection is becoming even more of a loser’s game.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 25, 2024
Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.
Wealth Management
APRIL 23, 2024
The rule, which takes effect in September, “protects the retirement investors from improper investment recommendations and harmful conflicts of interest,” according to Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 26, 2024
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2024. CPI Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in March , down slightly from 5.8% in January, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 25, 2024
Bill Artzerounian joined me again this week to tackle questions about automating your finances, the tax implications of a company sale, how to offset RWM taxes and the pros and cons of a Roth 401k. Further Reading: Inflation Matters More For the Stock Market Than Interest Rates 1It’s also worth pointing out that interest rates under 2% have been rare historically.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 23, 2024
Geopolitics A look at how geopolitical events affect the stock market. (carsongroup.com) Why we fear doing nothing during a geopolitical crisis. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Strategy Investors need to understand history and be willing to look ahead. (morningstar.com) Why people make seemingly bad financial decisions. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Companies Meta ($META) never wants to be at the mercy of Apple ($AAPL).
Wealth Management
APRIL 26, 2024
As clients become increasingly aware of the complexities of wealth transfer, asset protection and legacy planning, they expect comprehensive guidance from their advisors.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Calculated Risk
APRIL 24, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 19, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 25, 2024
In the week ending April 20, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 207,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 214,000 jobless claims.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 24, 2024
Podcasts Carl Richards talks with Farnoosh Torabi money lessons learned. (50fires.com) Matt Ziegler talks with Justin Castelli about the intersection of life and investing. (youtube.com) Barry Ritholtz talks closet indexing with Andrew Slimmon who is Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. (ritholtz.com) Jim Dahle talks with Britt Williams Baker, who is the co-founder of Dow Janes, a company focused on financial education for women.
Wealth Management
APRIL 22, 2024
The RIA said it was acquiring the two San Francisco-based teams. This follows last week’s announcements that multi-billion-dollar former First Republic teams had joined Merrill Lynch and Citizens Bank.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 25, 2024
From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2023. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2023 was 3,591,328, down 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate was 54.4 births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, down 3% from 2022. The total fertility rate was 1,616.5 births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022.
Alpha Architect
APRIL 23, 2024
The implications of wishful thinking and subjective belief choice for endogenous disagreement among investors are substantial and can vary with economic conditions: How investors form beliefs and make decisions was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 22, 2024
Podcasts Brian Portnoy talks human-centric advice with Kelsey McKenna and Zachary Conway of Seeds Investor. (youtube.com) Larry Sprung talks with Josh Brown about his path to wealth management. (mitlinmoneymindset.libsyn.com) Jordan Haynes talks with Justin Castelli about his transition into life planning, especially for financial advisers. (getelements.com) Frazer Rice talks with Christopher Holtby about the role of a directed trustee.
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