Sat.Apr 08, 2023 - Fri.Apr 14, 2023

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CPI = 5.0% (Time to Stop Raising Rates)

The Big Picture

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in March on a seasonally-adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in February. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. ( April 2023 ) As much as I want to jump up and down about 0.1% seasonally adjusted (after a 0.4% prior month), the big number is not so big: 5.0% A 5 handle is a huge development, even with the core remaining sligh

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Revolutionizing Advice – April 19th!

The Reformed Broker

A must-attend event for every RIA owner and practitioner, featuring Michael Kitces, Josh Brown, and Penny Phillips. Register here to secure your spot Michael Kitces is known as every financial advisor’s favorite financial advisor, with Kitces.com serving nearly 3,000 members and his Nerd’s Eye View blog reaching more than 200,000 unique visitors monthly.

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Personal finance links: life filters

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Morgan Housel talks about the importance of 'playing your own game.' (open.spotify.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with James Choi about personal financial advice and the importance of defaults. (morningstar.com) Wealth Baby Boomers control a majority of American wealthy, but it's concentrated in a minority. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Being wealthy is about not worrying about money.

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How Different Monte Carlo Models Perform In The Real World: Assessing Quality Of Predictiveness In Retirement Income Forecasting Models

Nerd's Eye View

When planning for retirement, it’s effectively impossible to precisely forecast the performance and timing of future investment returns, which in turn makes it challenging to accurately predict a plan’s success or failure. And while Monte Carlo simulations have made it possible for advisors to create retirement projections that seem to have a reasonable basis in math and data, there has been limited research as to whether Monte Carlo models really perform as advertised – in oth

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Help Wanted!

The Big Picture

Nonfarm payrolls came out Friday, and once again they impressed with their underlying strength: 236,000 new workers were added in March, with February NFP revised upward to 326,000, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. But there remains nearly two job opening for each unemployed worker, and despite rising wages, lots of decent positions remain unfilled.

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Wednesday links: fee efficiency

Abnormal Returns

Fund management Don't look to the UK for successful active managers. (ft.com) A Texas-focused ETF is coming down the pike. (finance.yahoo.com) ETNs are not the same as ETFs. (barrons.com) AI Why AI hasn't taken over Wall Street, yet. (wsj.com) How Qraft Technologies plans to limit access to its AI tools. (institutionalinvestor.com) Companies Meta ($META) has a morale problem.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 15-16)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that on the heels of introducing its own self-clearing platform and acquiring fellow RIA custodian Shareholder Services Group, Altruist announced that it raised $112 million in a series D funding round, bringing its total funding to more than $290 million.

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MiB: Aswath Damodaran: Valuations, Narratives & Academia

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Aswath Damodaran, who holds the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education at New York University’s Stern School of Business. A nine-time “Professor of the Year” winner at NYU, Damodaran teaches classes in corporate finance and valuation to MBA students. He has also written several books on corporate finance and equity valuation and has published widely in journals.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Biotech, Defense, Thermo Fisher & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Adviser links: the power of selectivity

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Justin L. Mack talks with Zach Conway, who is CEO of Seeds Investor. (financial-planning.com) Frazer Rice talks family offices with Edward Marshall, Head of the Global Family Office at Dentons, the international law firm. (podcasts.apple.com) Direct indexing Savvy Wealth has launched a direct indexing tool. (wealthmanagement.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) has a lower minimum for its DIY direct indexing tool.

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Highlights From The 2023 T3 Advisor Conference

Nerd's Eye View

The 2023 Technology Tools for Today (T3) Advisor Conference, held last month in Tampa, Florida, featured a large gathering of financial advisors and representatives across the fintech industry attending the 2½-day conference. Hosted by Joel Bruckenstein and his team from T3 Consulting, the conference covered everything from how technology providers are continuing to expand their features and integration capabilities to how advisors can manage their own expanding tech stacks to the ever-pres

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Nudging Investors into Better 401k Behavior

The Big Picture

Some encouraging news about people saving for retirement: A study by Vanguard Group found that “Automatic enrollment and the rise of target-date funds” are having a substantial and positive impact on retirement savers, in particular, on Millennials and Generation Z investors. They have seen a significant uptick in overall participation rate, which has increased from 62% in 2006 to 82% in 2021.

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U.S. Demographics: Largest 5-year cohorts, and Ten most Common Ages in 2022

Calculated Risk

Nine years ago, I wrote: Census Bureau: Largest 5-year Population Cohort is now the "20 to 24" Age Group. Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Friday links: playing your own game

Abnormal Returns

Markets Q1 S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline for the second quarter in a row. (axios.com) Gold is back at all-time highs. (allstarcharts.com) Bonds Individual investors are getting a crash course in bond buying. (wsj.com) Treasury bonds are no longer a crazy proposition. (morningstar.com) Technology Why Intel's ($INTC) turnaround is a long shot.

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Worry About the Right Things

The Irrelevant Investor

My colleague Nick in Louisiana wrote something excellent that I wanted to share with you. Hope everyone is enjoying their weekend. “Do you know the difference between me and you? Me: Happy, happy, happy, dead. You: Worry, worry, worry, dead.” – Catch-22. The last few years reminded us that it’s more important to know how it feels to lose money than to make it.

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How Rich Are the Baby Boomers?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I don’t know if this is my finance brain at work or just hitting middle age but anytime I travel now there invariably comes a point where I pull up home listings in the area on Zillow to get a sense of the local housing market. My family was in Marco Island, FL last week for spring break so of course I had to do some channel checks on housing prices in the area: Two things stand out here: (1) There are tons of list.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in March

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in March and was little changed in the first quarter, increasing at an annual rate of 0.2 percent. In March, manufacturing and mining output each fell 0.5 percent. The index for utilities jumped 8.4 percent, as the return to more seasonal weather after a mild February boosted the demand for heating.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Tuesday links: unproven fears

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The stock market is converting bears into bulls. (allstarcharts.com) Broad diversification is back! (morningstar.com) Companies Tupperware ($TUP) is at-risk of going bankrupt. (axios.com) Boeing ($BA) jumped ahead of Airbus in deliveries for the first time since Q2 2018. (finance.yahoo.com) Chipotle Mexican Grill ($CMG) is rolling out a new all-electric restaurant concept.

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Merger Arbitrage as Diversification Strategy

Alpha Architect

Merger arbitrage is an investment style in which investors seek to buy shares of firms that are acquisition targets with the objective of realizing the difference between the amount for which the target is being acquired and the stock price of the target shortly after the acquisition is announced. The stock price of the target company typically sells below the acquisition price, reflecting the uncertainty of the deal being completed (the arbitrage spread).

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There is No Index Fund For the Housing Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

The stock market crashed more than 85% from 1929-1932 during The Great Depression. Millions saw their finances get decimated in that period but for most people it was from the economy getting crushed, not their portfolios. Back then the stock market was a place reserved only for the wealthy and bucket shop speculators. In fact, less than 1% of the population was even invested in the stock market heading into the great c.

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Housing April 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. Maybe inventory has finally bottomed seasonally. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of April 7th, inventory was at 411 thousand (7-day average), compared to 410 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.3%.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Monday links: effective leadership

Abnormal Returns

Housing The housing market is locked up. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why there is no index fund for the housing market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Higher mortgage rates are making it more challenging for divorcing couples. (wsj.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) Mac sales took it on the chin in Q1. (arstechnica.com) Why Apple ($AAPL) needs a standalone password app.

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Lucky in Life

The Irrelevant Investor

Luck is an important ingredient in success. I was thinking about this today while listening to Danny Meyer with Tim Ferris. Meyer was talking about all of the different things that had to happen to get him to where he is today. The funny thing about success is you never know which moment in time will shape the rest of your life. People love to talk about their bad luck. “Watch.

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The Mental Accounting of Asset Allocation

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I’m a 30 year old living in Brooklyn making $175/year. I’m currently maxing out my 401k, Roth IRA, and have roughly $45k in a taxable brokerage account. Via my company’s ESOP, my company’s stock has become 20% of my brokerage account even after selling a good chunk steadily over the past several years. This year I received an RSU grant that will begin vesting in 2023.

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Nine Must Reads for Real Estate Investors Today (April 12, 2023)

Wealth Management

Diversified Healthcare Trust struck a merger agreement with Office Properties Income Trust, reports McKnights Senior Living. Commercial Observer looks at the conflicting pictures of what's going on in the multifamily sector. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Your investment strategy needs to work in all markets. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Interrupt compounding as little as possible. (bestinterest.blog) Index funds don't call you in the middle of the night saying the roof is leaking. (businessinsider.com) How to dole out risk in your portfolio. (humbledollar.com) It's hard to get past the difference in valuation between European and U.S. stocks.

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Remote Work and Household Formation

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Remote Work and Household Formation A brief excerpt: Back in September 2021, I wrote Household Formation Drives Housing Demand So what is driving demand for both homeownership and rentals? Household formation! Over time, housing economist Tom Lawler and I unraveled the household formation mystery.

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No Sellers, No Buyers

The Irrelevant Investor

A new construction a couple of blocks away from me has been listed on Zillow for 213 days. The house is beautiful. The only thing wrong with it is when it was listed. This home would have sold for asking or above if it had been built twelve months earlier. The mortgage market has had a heck of a transformation over the past year. From 2014 through 2021, the average 30-year mortgage was 3.8%.

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