The Reformed Broker
DECEMBER 1, 2022
LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 2, 2022
Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the eighth month. Lost in the unemployment and jobs headline noise are huge divergences between jobs and employment dating back to March. Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in
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The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2022
As we have been discussing since May of this year, there are increasing signs we have been groping for a bottom in the equity markets. This “Process” is not a single event but rather, a series of events the totality of which increasingly weighs the probability towards that positive resolution. I use the word probability because this outcome is not pre-ordained, but rather, subject to future events which have yet to unfold.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
Top clicks this week Lessons learned from a young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) There are five levels of wealth. (physicianonfire.com) Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.
Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Chicago Financial Planner
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement. As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work. You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).
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The Big Picture
DECEMBER 2, 2022
It is amazing to think about how Toyota blew its enormous lead in Hybrid tech, failing to launch any substantial push into EVs. The chart below shows exactly how much sales have fallen for the first hybrid EV America has fallen into — and then out of love with. The Prius today badly lags the RAV4, its sister crossover, in Toyota hybrid sales. But the latest design is a handsome reboot, and should help sales pick up.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Let’s assume we’re going to have a recession in 2023. I don’t know if we will, but everyone seems to think so, so let’s just say. So what. What can you do to stop it? Not much. Can you change your own spending and psych yourself up to survive it? Absolutely. Are there changes you could make to a portfolio in order to gird yourself for a worsening economy?
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 2, 2022
The biz Podcasting ad revenue is expected to rise in 2023. (insideradio.com) Joe Rogan maintained his hold as the No. 1 podcaster on Spotify for 2022. (variety.com) The problem with Spotify ($SPOT) Wrapped. (wired.com) Anderson Cooper is working through his grief on a new podcast 'All There Is With Anderson Cooper.' (nytimes.com) Business Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk with Margaret O'Mara author of the book "The Code: Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Monthly average Fed Funds Rate via St. Louis Fed. Chart Notes I use monthly averages because the Fed now targets a range. Also the Fed Funds Target Rate is discontinued and only dates to 1982. This is the steepest, most aggressive hiking cycle ever. You can see the impact especially in mortgage rates and thus housing. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 1975-Present. 30-year fixed mortgage rates courtesy of Mortgage News Daily. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates - One Year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates court
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 2, 2022
This was a fun conversation with my buddy Pete about all the media madness these days — it was as I was recovering from C19, and while I felt fine, my voice sounds pretty gravelly. If you find that kind of thing tolerable, people seemed to really like this discussion. Lots more details here. Enjoy! The post November 2022: Stand Up with Pete appeared first on The Big Picture.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Hey guys, hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving. Five day weekends are rare, hope yours was relaxing and fun. I’ll be in Houston for three days next week – my first time ever in that city! We’re taping a live version of The Compound and Friends podcast at the Dynasty Investors Forum. I will also be interviewing my friend Patrick O’Shaughnessy on stage about the custom and direct indexing revolution.
Abnormal Returns
DECEMBER 1, 2022
Books An excerpt from "G-Man: J. Edgar Hoover and the Making of the American Century" by Beverly Gage. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Nick Hornby about his new book "Dickens and Prince: A Particular Kind of Genius." (observer.com) An excerpt from "Unreasonable Hospitality: The Remarkable Power of Giving People More Than They Expect" by Will Guidara.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Image courtesy of StockCharts.Com. The Federal Reserve posts a Transcript of Powell's Speech on Inflation and the Labor Market. Powell put a spotlight on core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, noting that it is stubbornly high despite the Fed's rate hikes. Key Powell Comments (Emphasis Mine) Twelve-month core PCE inflation stands at 5.0 percent in our October estimate, approximately where it stood last December when policy tightening was in its early stages.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Last day of the 11th month! Enjoy the end of November with our mid-week morning train reads: • How Much Growth Can You Expect? Imagine I present to you a magical box that can turn your money into more money. The only problem is that you don’t know exactly how much more money you’ll get from this box. You could put $100 into the box and get back $200, $400, or maybe only $150 when all is said and done.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
Hope everyone’s had a happy Thanksgiving. The shot above is from our annual Turkey Bowl football match. I had one reception and spent most of the game on the line where I belong, counting mississippis and menacing their QB. We’ve been playing in this game with the neighborhood dads and kids since the boys were babies. My son and his friends are all teenagers now.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Markets The yield curve is only getting more inverted. (morningstar.com) Oil prices are back to pre-Ukraine war levels. (axios.com) Strategy What is a reasonable return expectation for the next few decades? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why indexing works. (evidenceinvestor.com) Crypto SBF was telling people about his plans in plain sight. (elmwealth.com) City of Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said that he’s still taking his paycheck in bitcoin.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 29, 2022
Welcome back to the 309th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Anh Tran. Anh is the Founder and Managing Partner for SageMint Wealth, a corporate LPL-affiliated RIA based in Orange, California, that oversees nearly $325 million for 195 client households. What's unique about Anh, though, is how, as a solo advisor, she differentiates her firm by leveraging the combination of a high-touch concierge approach to client service with a unique investment mana
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. You might have missed it during the holiday week, but it’s worth reviewing. The specifics are noteworthy: -Over the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, making a one-month diffusion index of -4.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
Worst of Its Kind? Bloomberg writer Merryn Somerset Webb says FTX Crypto Bubble Really Is the Worst of Its Kind. Investment bubbles tend to leave behind something useful when they pop. Unfortunately, crypto looks like an outlier. Webb compares the crypto bubble to the bicycle bubble of 1896 that left us with better bicycles, automobiles that were initially so slow people mocked them with "get a horse", and the DotCom bust that left us with far better technology.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Podcasts Kenny Malone and Greg Rosalsky talk with Yale economist James Choi about his paper "Popular Personal Financial Advice Versus The Professors." (npr.org) Michael Klein talks with Laura Gee at Tufts University about the state of charitable giving in the U.S. (econofact.org) Aging More Americans are living alone as they reach retirement age. (nytimes.com) Why you should talk to your parents about their money.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Taxes are a central component of financial planning. Almost every financial planning issue – whether it is retirement, investments, cash flow, insurance, or estate planning – has tax considerations, and advisors provide a great deal of value in helping clients minimize their overall tax burden. And yet, despite the prominent role of taxes in financial planning, advisors are often prohibited by their compliance departments from making recommendations for a specific course of action on
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 26, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Climate Change from A to Z : The stories we tell ourselves about the future. ( New Yorker ). • A comprehensive guide to how Elon Musk is changing Twitter : Mass layoffs, trolling, and check marks: How Elon Musk is running Twitter. ( Vox ) see also Twitter was special.
Mish Talk
DECEMBER 1, 2022
ISM chart and details below by permission of the Institute for Supply Management. Please consider the November 2022 Manufacturing ISM ® Report On Business ® “Manufacturing contracted in November after expanding for 29 straight months. Panelists’ companies continue to judiciously manage hiring, other than October 2022, the month-over-month supplier delivery performance was the best since February 2012, when it registered 47 percent and material lead times declined approximately 9 percent from the
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2022
Strategy Rising interest rates reset a whole host of financial questions. (humbledollar.com) Why fraud seems more prevalent these days. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Companies Disney ($DIS) had more than just a CEO problem. (ft.com) Shopping on Amazon ($AMZN) continues to get worse. (washingtonpost.com) T. Rowe Price ($TROW) has come out against a merger between News Corp. and Fox.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 1, 2022
As financial planning has evolved over the years, better tools have become available to help advisors maximize their impact with more clients by increasing their efficiency. Financial planning technology, in particular, has allowed advisors to automate time-intensive back-office tasks and delegate routine analyses to support staff, freeing up their time to engage more personally with clients.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
5 years ago, a dear friend unexpectedly passed away. Once his crew recovered from our initial shock, we decided to establish the Richard Yamarone Memorial Scholarship in Economics at Brooklyn College.* The driving force behind the scholarship was TBP Invictus. Art Cashin shared a reminder today: “Many of us were deeply saddened (5 yearsa go today) to learn of the sudden passing of Rich Yamarone at age 55 of complications of a cardiac event.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
Blockchain Scrapheap The Tech Monitor reports IBM and Maersk Scrap Blockchain Trade Platform TradeLens IBM and logistics company Maersk have called time on TradeLens, the blockchain-backed supply chain platform that came online for the first time in 2018, citing a “lack of global industry collaboration” for its demise. It is due to cease operations early next year, and the second IBM-backed blockchain trade platform to get the chop this year.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 28, 2022
Crypto Fidelity has opened up access to its retail crypto account. (theblock.co) BlockFi has filed for bankruptcy. (coindesk.com) Jane Street never invested in FTX. (on.ft.com) Finance The IPO window is still closed for now. (ft.com) The bear market is going to cause a wave of reverse splits. (bloomberg.com) Venture capital Ten red flags venture capitalists should heed including 'overlapping corporate interests.
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