Sat.Aug 05, 2023 - Fri.Aug 11, 2023

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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes

The Big Picture

I love FRED — I am a big user of their charts and data (and even their swag ). Where I go full heterodox are in things like the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Index, which is a recent addition to FRED’s awesome database. It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” FRED’s post on it observed that “Economists Kyle Jurado, Sydney Ludvigson, and Serena Ng use a set of 132 individual macroeconomic t

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IRS Notice 2023-54 Provides Welcome Relief To 10-Year Rule Beneficiaries And Retirement Account Owners Born In 1951

Nerd's Eye View

The original SECURE Act, signed into law in December 2019, changed many of the long-standing rules governing IRAs and other retirement accounts, and no single measure in the legislation had a more seismic impact on planning than the changes to the post-death distribution rules for retirement accounts. Specifically, the law stipulated that "Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries" (i.e., designated beneficiaries who are neither surviving spouses nor fall into a limited number of other categories) w

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Personal finance links: bad financial habits

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talks with Manisha Thakor about her new book ”MoneyZen: The Secret to Finding Your “Enough.” (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with John Jennings, author of "The Uncertainty Solution" about how to invest with confidence in inherently uncertain markets. (peterlazaroff.com) Fraud How an empty lot was sold without the owner's knowledge or consent.

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Trading Legend Mark Fisher on What it Takes

The Reformed Broker

We had a lot of fun with Joe Terranova and Mark Fisher on the show this week. Mark shared a lot of behavioral stuff about what it takes to make it as a trader. It’s not for everyone and it costs a lot to find this out. I was fascinated by the discussion and judging for the feedback we’ve gotten, a lot of our listeners were as well. You can watch the full episode here: Or find it on your favorite podcast ap.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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What Earnings Recession?

The Big Picture

My RWM colleagues Josh Brown and Michael Batnick do a bang-up job each week diving into the specifics of the newsflow in What Are Your Thoughts? Don’t miss my favorite chart from this week’s discussion 46 minutes deep into the episode ; its from Bank of America by way of Batnick (above). All of the fall-off surrounding the 8% pullback in S&P 500 profits — literally, more than 100% of it — is due to the huge drop in energy profits.

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Longform links: invisible gestures

Abnormal Returns

Business Will the AI boom bail out San Francisco as a destination? (marketwatch.com) How Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock ($BLK), became so demonized. (economist.com) Being an Airbnb ($ABNB) host is no longer easy money. (bloomberg.com) Cities When it comes to housing, supply and demand work. (nymag.com) How to make cities safe. (unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com) Environment Just how much have we already overfished the oceans?

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Unlimited Alpha

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Bob Elliott, Ben Carlson, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Bob’s time running money at Bridgewater, CPI, global macro, the labor market, why hedge funds are typically bearish, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Marketing 130
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Seth Klarman on What Makes a Value Investor and Committing ‘Sacrilege’ in New Edition of ‘Security Analysis.’ Klarman edited the classic to remind investors of basic principles — but he questions “how much of this will be read by institutional investors who may think they know it all.” ( Institutional Investor ) • Flying Cars Are Nearly Here—and They’re Electric : Companies like Joby and Archer are about to begin production of electric vertical takeoff a

Math 245
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The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech (August 2023)

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome to the August 2023 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, underlying trends, and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors! This month's edition kicks off with the news that estate planning platform Wealth.com has launched Ester, an AI-driven 'legal assistant' that uses machine learning to help advisors quickly review and extract the key information from clients' estate plan

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Friday links: the highest earners

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Bonds are showing positive real yield for the first time in a long time. (ft.com) Why Seth Klarman spearheaded a re-write of Graham and Dodd's classic "Security Analysis." (institutionalinvestor.com) Active ETFs are the future. (ft.com) Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs ($GS) has a morale problem. (nymag.com) Why fingers are being pointed at Goldman Sachs' ($GS) CEO David Solomon could use a friend.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: CVS, Chubb, Morgan Stanley & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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FutureProof 2023 is 30 days away!

The Big Picture

I am super jazzed for this year’s Future Proof. Our second go-around is even bigger and better than last year’s! It is nothing like the usual financial conference — it’s totally outdoors, right on the Pacific in Huntington Beach. We took over all 5 hotels for the 3000 attendees, including 1,000 registered advisors and over 500 sponsors.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (August 12-13)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth has launched an investigation into how investment firms are using artificial intelligence-enabled technologies, echoing concerns expressed by the SEC that these tools could be used to put the firms' interests ahead of their clients if the methods of the developers who create the tools and the 'training' the AI goes through is

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Research links: learning in a bear market

Abnormal Returns

Quant stuff James Picerno, "In short, there are no silver bullets for building a solid backtest." (capitalspectator.com) How ChatGPT can suss out information in company filings. (marginalrevolution.com) Quants have beliefs: in their systems not a narrative. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) C-suite How the stock ownership of medical device company CEOs affects recalls.

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Six Reasons to Stay Worried

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►A Textbook Buyable Dip – “Developing as a Textbook Seasonal Correction” ►Higher Rates? NBD – “S&P 500 Companies Are Still Benefiting From the Era of Low Interest Rates” ►Reason.

Investing 130
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Core or 16% Trimmed-Mean CPI?

The Big Picture

A quick note on today’s BLS report on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose 0.2% in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, Over the last 12 months, the CPI has increased 3.2%. Once again, the biggest part of the gains was for shelter. As I have noted before, the entity primarily responsible for rising home prices higher is the Fed. There are numerous ways to measure price increases, and I wanted to highlight a specific approach the BLS occasionally references: “The 16% trimmed-mea

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Kitces & Carl Ep 118: (Re-)Building Your Financial Advisor Identity When You Dial Back Working With Clients

Nerd's Eye View

Financial advisors who have established and successfully built up their advisory firms over several years can often go through many stages of firm development, requiring them to hire staff and additional advisors to manage their growing clientele. When a firm becomes large enough, though, the firm owner may be compelled to consider stepping away from their long-standing work as a client-facing financial advisor into a more pronounced business leadership role to manage the growing business.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Monday links: the impact of remote work

Abnormal Returns

Crypto PayPal ($PYPL) has launched its own stablecoin. (theverge.com) Five questions about the PayPal stablecoin. (coindesk.com) Companies How Apple ($AAPL) saves money on new chips manufactured by Taiwan Semi ($TSM). (theinformation.com) Uber ($UBER) seems to have threaded the needle. (youngmoney.co) A closer look at Berkshire Hathaway's ($BRK.A) second quarter results.

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You have never been to an event like this before.

The Reformed Broker

You have never been to an event like this before. This is the one. You’ll be telling your colleagues years from now that you were there. Why am I so sure of this? We built it that way. That’s the purpose. You can earn continuing education credits on the internet, who cares. This is for people who want more out of their careers. Who want to network with the best practitioners in the space and learn from them.

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Nine Book Recommendations From Advisors to Get You to the End of Summer

Wealth Management

Non-fiction about happiness, purpose and the psychology of money, a thriller from David Baldacci and more.

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Do Valuations Even Matter For the Stock Market?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Shiller has a free online database of historical stock market data I’ve been using for years. Going back to 1871, Shiller has data on historical interest rates, dividends, earnings, inflation and valuations. His preferred valuation measure is the cyclically-adjusted price to earnings (CAPE) ratio The average CAPE ratio going back to 1871 is 17.4x the previous 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings for the U.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Sunday links: biased expectations

Abnormal Returns

Markets Cullen Roche, "This has been one of the more fascinating years in economic and market history." (disciplinefunds.com) Countertrend rallies shouldn't be surprising. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Apple Why Apple ($AAPL) may be the most important company in history. (blairbellecurve.com) You don't need an 'everything app' when you already have the 'everything phone.

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Best Penny Stocks With High Net Profit Margin – Hidden Gems?

Trade Brains

Best Penny Stocks with High Net Profit Margin: From time to time we come across penny stocks which soared 500%, even 1,000% in value making their investors richer. Such companies score better than their peers on key metrics such as return on equity, profit margins, etc. This enables them to earn higher profits than their small peers. Such growth on a small base brings multi-bagger stock returns to investors.

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Legal Battle Between FINRA and Frequent Foe Could Be a 'Headshot' For the Regulator

Wealth Management

Utah-based Alpine Securities is challenging the constitutionality of FINRA. Given recent judicial decisions from more conservative courts, some legal scholars think it may succeed.

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The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine

Brown Advisory

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. Yet through osmosis I’ve learned that aging affords some wines time to become smoother and mellower, developing a fuller flavor as the months and years pass.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Tuesday links: a lot of luck

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Don't make your investments based on who is in the White House. (retirementresearcher.com) When do dividend-focused strategies outperform? (morningstar.com) Semiconductors Arm Holdings is planning investments from Apple, Samsung and Intel on its IPO. (asia.nikkei.com) Taiwan Semi ($TSM) is building a big chip factory in Germany. (retirementresearcher.com) Weight loss In a study, Novo Nordisk’s ($NVO) Wegovy not only helped people lose weight but also reduced their risk of cardiovascular

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The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Long-Term Housing and Population Shift A brief excerpt: Something different … Here is a look at the last 50 to 60 years, and some predictions about the next 50+ years. First, here is a graph from the Census Bureau showing the Median Center of Population for the United States: 1880 to 2020 A key driver of the westward movement was the availability of water , and this boosted population growth in California, and in several other states like

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RIA Roundup: Corient Adds 3 US Firms, $13.7B, in 3 Months

Wealth Management

CI Financial revealed Corient’s latest additions during an earnings call this week, Dynamic Advisor Solutions added five new teams in the first half of the year, Integrated added a new Denver affiliate and WEG is staffing up for more growth.

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