Calculated Risk
JUNE 10, 2024
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 23.8% from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 7th, inventory was at 612 thousand (7-day average), compared to 605 thousand the prior week.
The Big Picture
JUNE 9, 2024
@TBPInvictus here. About a decade or so ago, the city of Seattle undertook to raise its minimum wage, over time, to $15/hour. (Massive credit to my friend Nick Hanauer for his efforts to make that happen.) What followed in the immediate aftermath of both the announcement and implementation was nothing less than a apocalyptic, collective head explosion on the right about the devastating effects the increase would have, particularly in the food services sector: However, there’s little doubt that t
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Wealth Management
JUNE 11, 2024
Explaining the fallacy of a free dividend can overcome both investor ignorance and their biases.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 9, 2024
Top clicks this week The best time to prepare for a bear market is before it begins. (awealthofcommonsense.com) A review of major asset class performance in May 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Why you shouldn't be worried about index funds just yet. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) The current bull market is mid. (tker.co) The market has always been rigged, just not in the way you think.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 10, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q1 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: We will NOT see a surge in foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.
The Big Picture
JUNE 13, 2024
@TBPInvictus here A few days ago, Barry and I detailed how unscrupulous bad actors had taken Not Seasonally Adjusted data to falsely claim that California’s new $20/hour minimum wage had cost the state almost 10,000 quick-serve restaurant (QSR) jobs. I wrote: It appears to me that the Journal got that number from BLS. However, BLS only offers the series without seasonal adjustment; this makes a very meaningful difference.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 9, 2024
Concentration The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated. (apolloacademy.com) Should you be worried? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Markets Can we finally move past the Gamestock ($GME) era of markets? (herbgreenberg.substack.com) Does anything matter any more in markets? (spyglass.org) Alternatives More investors are facing up to the problem with illiquid alternatives.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 12, 2024
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 15.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 7, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 15.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 14, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study found that advisory teams tend to have higher assets under management per advisor, serve wealthier clients on average, and have stronger growth than solo advisors, thanks in part to the efficiencies gained from sharing expertise and back-office support.
Wealth Management
JUNE 11, 2024
An RIA’s level of satisfaction with a custodian is directly correlated with the proportion of assets held with them.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 10, 2024
Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Peter Mallouk, president and CEO of Creative Planning LLC. (ritholtz.com) Joel Weber and Eric Balchunas talk with Silla Brush about Salim Ramji the new CEO of Vanguard. (bloomberg.com) Daniel Crosby talks advisor marketing with Robert Sofia who is the CEO of Snappy Kraken. (standarddeviationspod.com) Frazer Rice talks with David Barnard, CEO and Founder of Luminary, about technology and estate planning.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 8, 2024
The key report this week is May CPI. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and rates are expected to be unchanged. -- Monday, June 10th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, June 11th -- 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April. -- Wednesday, June 12th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS.
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 11, 2024
Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 389th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Mark Berg. Mark is the Founder of Timothy Financial Counsel, an RIA based in Wheaton, Illinois, that is on track to generate approximately $5 million in annual revenue this year serving 800 client households. What's unique about Mark, though, is how his firm has scaled from $1.8 million of revenue to $5 million, in only 6 years, and has maintained a 25% profit margin… al
Wealth Management
JUNE 10, 2024
Industry analysts view KKR's and Starwood's recent moves to respond to redemption requests on their non-traded REITs as positive for shareholders.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 11, 2024
Diversification We are in a 'bear market for diversification.' (thinkadvisor.com) What really is the goal of portfolio diversification? (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Books Insights from "The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest" by Edward Chancellor. (blas.com) A review of Nathaniel Popper's "The Trolls of Wall Street: How the Outcasts and Insurgents are Hacking the Markets.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 12, 2024
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 12, 2024
Financial advisors, as professionals whose clients rely on their advice to make financial decisions, are legally and financially responsible for the advice that they give. For example, if an advisor recommends an investment that prioritizes the commission they would receive rather than any benefit the client would derive from it, they could incur fines and sanctions for violating their fiduciary duty as an advisor.
Wealth Management
JUNE 12, 2024
The chief investment officers for T. Rowe Price and Schwab Asset Management discussed disconnects between how RIAs and retail investors view current opportunities.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 12, 2024
Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Larry Swedroe about avoiding distractions. (ritholtz.com) Katie Gatti Tassin talks with Katy Song of Domain Money about how to break up with your financial advisor. (podcast.moneywithkatie.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talk about finding your enough. (podcasts.apple.com) Sam Parr talks with the owner of a 24,000 square foot house.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 8, 2024
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1 • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in May • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in April; Up 6.5% Year-over-year • ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Cool for Second Straight Month in April" This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 10, 2024
The first half of 2024 has been a solid start for most advisory firms, with markets enjoying moderate growth (a pleasant follow-through after a particularly strong 2023!), client retention rates remaining robust, and at least a bit of client referral growth trickling in. Which is leading to healthy profit margins at the typical advisory firm, as more and more advisors eye the possibility that AI will produce even more business efficiencies (and stronger profitability) in the year to come.
Wealth Management
JUNE 13, 2024
According to data from insurance brokerage firm Golsan Scruggs, premiums have dropped by about half over the past year.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 13, 2024
Big Tech Apple's ($AAPL) AI announcement(s) helped add some $200 billion in market cap. (axios.com) It's kind of shocking just how big, Big Tech has gotten. (sherwood.news) Commercial real estate Where distressed office building transactions are taking place. (nytimes.com) Office CMBS default rates are soaring. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple New Apple ($AAPL) features could 'Sherlock' a number of third party apps.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 13, 2024
What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.0% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market.
Nerd's Eye View
JUNE 13, 2024
As the financial advice industry continues to move toward providing full-blown professional services rather than focusing primarily on product sales, advisory (advicery?) firms are increasingly experiencing similar stages of growth in their practices. From the initial stage of onboarding their first clients to the point of hitting a capacity wall and deciding whether to increase their headcount, and later to a threshold where an ensemble business eventually becomes an enterprise, advicers face m
Wealth Management
JUNE 13, 2024
Taking the steps to deliver better service, drive growth, and achieve your goals faster can result in extraordinary benefits.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
JUNE 8, 2024
Autos Bi-directional charging would be a big boost to EV sales. (nytimes.com) Waymo is proving out the concept of autonomous cars in the Phoenix area. (wsj.com) Edmunds top EV and hybrid vehicles for 2024. (goodgoodgood.co) Transport NYC take note, most cities with congestion pricing have benefited. (reasonstobecheerful.world) The shipping industry is adding sails to their ships.
Calculated Risk
JUNE 11, 2024
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 3.4% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.5% YoY). • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Statement.
The Big Picture
JUNE 11, 2024
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Peter Mallouk, Creative Planning CEO , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.
Wealth Management
JUNE 12, 2024
The funding will be put toward research and development, hiring and enhancements to data quality.
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