Sat.Jan 06, 2024 - Fri.Jan 12, 2024

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The Billionaires Income Tax Act and the Moore Case

Wealth Management

The ongoing case before the Supreme Court, which questions the constitutionality of taxing unrealized capital gains, holds significant implications for the future of wealth management.

Taxes 116
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Are You Bullish or Bearish in 2024?

The Big Picture

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random. Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” I find it very useful as an investor to be able to see both sides of the bull-bear debate.

Economy 329
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Some of the best charts of 2023. (entrylevel.topdowncharts.com) 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Don't get caught sitting in cash in 2024. (allstarcharts.com) How major asset classes performed in December 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Good years tend to cluster for the stock market.

Assets 293
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Using ‘Magic Wand’ Questions To Help Clients Articulate Financial Needs And Goals (That They Otherwise Struggle To Express)

Nerd's Eye View

In initial discovery meetings, financial advisors face the challenge of eliciting specific goals from new clients – a crucial step for crafting a comprehensive financial plan. Asking direct queries may elicit vague responses like "I want to be on track for retirement", which tends to lack the detail needed to plan effectively and spark the client's motivation to actually accomplish those goals.

Clients 238
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Americans Are Better Off Than You Think

A Wealth of Common Sense

Bernie Sanders was railing against wealth inequality again last week: The rich do control most of the financial assets in this country. The top 10% owns close to 90% of the stock market in the U.S. Most of the income gains in the past 40 years or so have gone to the wealthy. That’s not great. But the idea that two-thirds of all Americans cannot cover an emergency expense simply doesn’t hold up to the facts.

Assets 139

More Trending

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Monday links: sowing and reaping

Abnormal Returns

Markets Six reasons to bullish. Six reasons to be bearish. (ritholtz.com) The 10 biggest FTSE 100 companies by market cap, over time. (ft.com) What you need to know about the spread on mortgage bonds. (housingbrief.com) Finance The spot Bitcoin ETF price war is already on. (axios.com) Property and casualty insurance providers are struggling to keep up with weather-related claims.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 13-14)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Securities and Exchange Commission this week authorized 11 Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), which could provide financial advisors and their clients with a convenient way to invest in the cryptocurrency without many of the security issues or price tracking challenges of other methods (though the new products will still be subject to Bitcoin's notorious price

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Updating My Favorite Performance Chart For 2023

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been writing at A Wealth of Common Sense for more than 10 years now. That means we’re going on a decade’s worth of asset allocation quilts on this blog. The moral of the story is I’m getting old. Here’s the latest update through the end of 2023 along with those 10 year trailing returns: Some observations: Bad to good and good to bad.

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At the Money: Investor Incompetence

The Big Picture

At The Money: David Dunning professor of psychology at the University of Michigan ( Go Blue! ) (January 10, 2024) Investor incompetence might play a larger role in poor performance than you think. That’s thanks to a phenomenon called the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: David Dunning is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan.

Medical 284
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Friday links: the dispersion of skill

Abnormal Returns

Markets Stocks don't always beat bonds. (morningstar.com) A visualization of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks by market cap. (politicalcalculations.blogspot.com) Strategy Bob Seawright, "We will never act with perfect foresight. We will rarely act with decent foresight." (betterletter.substack.com) You can't use P/E ratios to value growth stocks. (downtownjoshbrown.com) A lot of strategies just aren't worth the hassle.

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#FA Success Ep 367: When Being In Business With Your Spouse Doesn’t Work Out And You Have To Start Over, With Kimberly Enders

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 367th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Kimberly Enders. Kimberly is the Lead Financial Planner and Managing Partner of Enders Wealth Management, a hybrid advisory firm based in Sterling Heights, Michigan, that oversees $50M in assets under management for 85 client households. What's unique about Kimberly, though, is that after building a practice jointly with her husband, in 2015, she had to reinvent herself after a divorce lef

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Historical U.S. Stock Market Returns Through 2023

A Wealth of Common Sense

It’s always bittersweet when the holidays are over. I love Christmas time. The decorations. The parties. The food. The movies. Family time. But I also have something to look forward to when the kids finally go back to school after Christmas break — it’s to update some historical stock market data! I rely heavily on two sources when it comes to historical performance numbers: Returns 2.0 from DFA and the.

Marketing 131
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CPI Increase is Based on Bad Shelter Data

The Big Picture

I am popping out of book leave to just throw a few charts at you regarding the Inflation data for December. CPI came in a 0.3% versus 0.2% expected month over month. But the devil is in the details. BLS pointed to shelter as the source of the increase: “The index for shelter continued to rise in December, contributing over half of the monthly all items increase.” In the real world, shelter measures were flat or negative.

Marketing 209
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Adviser links: advancing your business

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces talks adviser well-being with Stevyn Guinnip who is the founder of Grow Wellthy, a health and wellness consulting firm. (kitces.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talks with Julia Gurner about the power of working with a coach. (podcasts.apple.com) Career Why it's so important to invest in the next generation of advisers. (riaintel.com) Some things veteran advisers wished they knew when starting out including 'Run your business like a business.

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The Future Of Financial Advice: How Tech and Approaches In 2030 Will Differ From Today

Nerd's Eye View

Professional service industries tend to evolve over time as the regulatory environment evolves and new technologies emerge. For instance, the financial advice industry has seen many changes to regulations (for both advisors and their clients), advisor business models, and the advisor technology landscape. These changes all have the potential to change the industry by shifting the current focus on selling financial products (including financial plans themselves) to providing a more in-depth and p

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Peer-Reviewed Theory and Expected Stock Returns 

Alpha Architect

The risk-based explanation provided by a peer-based review is a necessary ingredient for considering investment, but it is not a sufficient ingredient. Peer-Reviewed Theory and Expected Stock Returns was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Investing 126
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Adweek: MiB Best Business-to-Business Podcast!

The Big Picture

Hey, this is a really nice surprise: Masters in Business was the winner in the Best Business-to-Business Podcast. I am Thrilled and humbled to win anything! Here’s what Adweek says: “In a world of shrinking attention spans where long-form journalism is an endangered species, Masters in Business sounds a refreshingly contrarian note. Creator and host Barry Ritholtz not only invites some of the most dynamic and creative business thinkers to the microphone–he’ll also often s

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Research links: regime changes

Abnormal Returns

ERP Does new data put the idea of equity superiority, over bonds, into doubt? (morningstar.com) The risks that come along with a 100% U.S. equity portfolio, not least of which are behavioral. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Research What factors are appropriate for defensive investors? (alphaarchitect.com) Crowded trades increase crash risks. (alphaarchitect.com) How the sensitivity to interest rates of factors, and sectors, vary in the U.S.

Portfolio 273
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Kitces & Carl Ep 129: How Autonomy, Experience, And Team Drive Advisor Wellbeing

Nerd's Eye View

As the beginning of the new year invites a fresh start, it's a fitting time to reflect on our own wellbeing and the elements that make us happy in life. While many believe they understand what brings them joy, it can be difficult to recognize the patterns that consistently enhance wellbeing and happiness. The most recent Kitces Research Study on What Actually Contributes To Advisor Wellbeing sheds light on this topic, revealing some of the factors that contribute most to positive wellbeing for a

Clients 130
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How Advisors Can Reduce the Risk of Long-Term Care

Advisor Perspectives

The world population is aging rapidly – 65 million people over the age of 65 will live in the U.S. by 2030. The disparity between the length of time a person lives (their lifespan) and how long they are in good health and can function well (their healthspan) is widening. As a result, a significant portion of aging adults are spending longer portions of their lives in poor health as they struggle to pay for caregiving assistance.

Insurance 119
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Cambridge Launches New RIA Acquisition Model

Wealth Management

The IBD has created a new RIA, BridgePort Financial Solutions, to execute on its flexible acquisition strategy; it launches with three transactions and $1 billion in assets under advisement.

Assets 119
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Longform links: profound distrust

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Hannah Ritchie "Not the End of the World: How We can Be the First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet." (fasterplease.substack.com) An excerpt from "Silent Cavalry: How Union Soldiers from Alabama Helped Sherman Burn Atlanta — and Then Got Written Out of History" by Howell Raines. (washingtonpost.com) Technology Does the NY Times ($NYT) have a case against AI and OpenAI specifically?

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs in 2023.

Economy 117
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When the Bulls Disappear

The Irrelevant Investor

“Buy when there’s blood in the streets” isn’t just a cute saying, it’s great investment advice.* The American Association of Individual Investors has been putting out a weekly sentiment survey every week since 1987. Something notable happened in the spring of 2022 that historically has been very bullish. Enthusiasm for stocks completely vanished.

Investing 113
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Spot Bitcoin ETF Race Kicks Off With a Fee War

Wealth Management

Spot Bitcoin ETFs like the 11 just approved by the SEC offer offer significant advantages over the earlier options for financial advisors seeking to access cryptocurrency exposure, according to CFRA's ETF analyst.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Personal finance links: investment politicians

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Michael Mauboussin about why it is so hard to buck the crowd. (ritholtz.com) Claer Barrett talks with Morgan Housel about his book "Same As Ever." (ft.com) Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Jared Dillian about his new book "No Worries: How To Live a Stress-free Financial Life." (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Khe Hy talks with Manisha Thakor about separating your self-worth from your net-worth.

Investing 266
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Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in "Uncharted Territory" at Record High

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate increased in Q4; Office Vacancy Rate in "Uncharted Territory" at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s: The national office vacancy rate rose 40 bps to a record-breaking 19.6% , shattering the previous record of 19.3% set twice previously: once in 1986 driven by a five-year period of significant inventory expansion and the other in 1991 during the Savings and Loans Crisis.

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Unemployment Claims Down 1K, Better Than Expected

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending January 6, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 202,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure. The latest reading is lower than the forecast of 210,000.

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