Sat.Dec 09, 2023 - Fri.Dec 15, 2023

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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Tyler Cowen and his colleague Alex Tabarrok write some interesting posts over at Marginal Revolution. Sometimes I agree with them, sometimes I disagree with them. Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Indeed, Faux’s book isn’t really about crypto it’s about the rise and collapse of a bubble and the consequent madness of crowds.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Why investors may regret earning 5% on cash. (allstarcharts.com) Investing is hard. Really hard. (awealthofcommonsense.com) What happens after a 20% up year for the stock market? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Should you care what Wall Street strategists have to say about 2024? (tker.co) The more room you can put between yourself and your investments, the better.

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#FA Success Ep 363: Finding The Best Networking Approach For Prospects (And New Career Opportunities), With Christa Madison

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 363rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast! My guest on today's podcast is Christa Madison. Christa is the Managing Director of Financial Planning and Business Development at Sebold Capital, a fee-only RIA based in Chicago, Illinois, which manages $300M across more than 100 client households. What's unique about Christa, though, is how she used her business development and networking skills to overcome the challenges that sprung up when, through a combination of p

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Rich Author, Poor Readers

A Wealth of Common Sense

Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal finance books of all time — Rich Dad, Poor Dad. I read it early on in my career. It never really did it for me but I can see why people latch onto the allegory he shares about learning the right financial habits. It’s a good thing to get people interested in personal finance because no one teaches you this stuff.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”

The Big Picture

No, “ nearly half ” of $94.5 billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” That line is just another in a long series of falsehoods put forth by the professional b *s at the National Retail Federation. Here’s Reuters : “The main lobbying group for U.S. retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (December 16-17)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that this week's round of public hearings on the Department of Labor's proposed new fiduciary rule featured fierce opposition from the brokerage and insurance industries – which, while unsurprising given those industries' stance against the DoL's previous fiduciary rule (which ultimately caused it to be struck down in court in 2018), nonetheless highlights the debat

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Market Commentary: Things You Don’t See in a Recession

Carson Wealth

Stocks Remain Strong Stocks took a break last week, which was perfectly normal after a five-week win streak coming off the late-October lows. It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. Various indexes are closing in on new all-time highs, and one of the most important indexes in the world is already there.

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MiB: Joel Tillinghast, Fidelity’s Legendary Fund Manager

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with investing legend Joel Tillinghast. He has been a mutual fund manager in the equity division at Fidelity Investments since the 1980s. Tillinghast launched Fidelity’s Low-Priced Stock (FLPSX) in 1989, and has trounced the averages ever since. Since inception, FLPSX has annually beaten the S&P 500 by over 3% and the Russell 2000 by over 4%.

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Wednesday links: ancient asset returns

Abnormal Returns

Strategy There's a good chance you need to rebalance your portfolio. (morningstar.com) Bonds outperform bills leading up to a Fed rate cut. (carsongroup.com) Apple What's going on with Apple's ($AAPL) Vision Pro? (om.co) Apple ($AAPL) is adding a new Stolen Device Protection setting. (wsj.com) Companies Why Epic's win against Google ($GOOGL) matters.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Preserving HSA Eligibility And Maximizing Contributions After Age 65

Nerd's Eye View

Although numerous tax-advantaged vehicles are available for retirement savings, Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) have particular benefits for individuals saving for retirement. Specifically, HSAs offer a "Triple Tax Benefit" that includes tax-deductible contributions, tax-deferred growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses. This can allow individuals to save a significant amount that can be withdrawn tax-free for medical expenses later in retirement.

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The Temptation of Factor Timing

Alpha Architect

The timing of equity factor premiums has a strong allure for investors because academic research has found that factor premiums are both time-varying and dependent on the economic cycle. The Temptation of Factor Timing was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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ATM: Mutual Funds vs. ETFs

The Big Picture

At the Money: Mutual Funds vs. ETFs with Dave Nadig, Financial Futurist for Vetta Fi (December 13, 2023) What’s the best instrument for your investments? Mutual funds or ETFs? On today’s edition of At the Money, Barry Ritholtz speaks to Dave Nadig about the pros and cons of these two investment vehicles. Listen to find out which is right for you.

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Tuesday links: hard information

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why do people still try to forecast a year ahead? (behaviouralinvestment.com) Stocks can hedge against inflation, but you still shouldn't hope for it. (morningstar.com) Finance $4 trillion of 'dry powder' for PE. Opportunity or threat? (ft.com) Citadel Investments had (another) good year. (bloomberg.com) ETFs ETFs continue to generate interest among advisers.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Announcing More Webinars And IAR CE In 2024 And The State Of The (Nerd’s Eye View) Blog

Nerd's Eye View

For most financial advisors, 2023 was a year of rebound and reinvestment, as markets bounced back from the turbulence of 2022, and expanded profit margins allowed advisory firms room to reinvest back into the services and value they're providing clients to make sure their retention stays strong in the future. Here at Kitces.com, we've similarly been in the midst of a reinvestment process in 2023, setting the foundation so that we can give even more back to the Financial Advicer community, as we

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How Many Millionaires Are There?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben in your recent blog post you said $1M investable wealth makes you rich. I would like to provide a counterargument to that. When you retire, $1M basically gives you $40,000 per year to live off of, assuming the 4% rule of thumb is a reasonable starting point to think about retirement income. So is $40k spend a year really rich? I would argue that it is middle class at best; probably lower middle class.

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Do Polluters Earn Higher Expected Returns? Yes.

Alpha Architect

Hence, the major research question examined here is: What is the impact of industrial pollution on market pricing? Short answer: polluters have earned higher returns. Do Polluters Earn Higher Expected Returns? Yes. was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Monday links: unprecedented employment

Abnormal Returns

Markets Every major asset class, except commodities, is set for an up 2023. (capitalspectator.com) The drop in bond yields reversed a lot of market trends. (wsj.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is the 'last man standing' in the crypto space. (nytimes.com) Zeke Faux's "Number Go Up" isn't really a book about crypto. (marginalrevolution.com) Finance The mostly highly-rated sell-side analysts work hard.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Did Interest Rates Just Peak?

Discipline Funds

It’s been a doozy of a few months for the bond markets as 10 year interest rates surged from 4% during the Summer to over 5% in October and then round tripped all the way back. Two months ago when the rate was over 5% there was constant chatter of a resurgence in inflation and a lack of demand for new bond issuance. But in the last six weeks interest rates have plummeted on expectations of lower inflation and an easier Federal Reserve in 2024.

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Could You Afford to Buy Your Own House Right Now?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Let’s walk through a quick thought exercise: How many homeowners could afford the monthly payment on their house at current levels of mortgage rates and home prices? Take the current value of your home, subtract 20% for a down payment and slap a 7% mortgage rate on it. Could you afford it? I did this for my house. The monthly payment would be nearly three times what we’re currently paying!

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Why 25 to 54 is the Prime Working Age group for the Participation Rate

Calculated Risk

A reader asks if we could look at the participation rate for 25 to 64, as opposed to 25 to 54, since many people work until they receive Social Security and Medicare. First, the BLS provides seasonally adjusted data for the "Prime" working age group (25 to 54), but only NSA data for the 55 to 64 cohort. So, this makes tracking a larger Prime+ group more difficult.

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Sunday links: errant forecasts

Abnormal Returns

Crypto What's behind the resurgence in crypto prices? (marginalrevolution.com) The case for a (small) allocation to Bitcoin. (advisorperspectives.com) Why crypto is such an asymmetric bet. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Companies The story of innovation at Lululemon ($LULU). (readtrung.com) Why Jensen Huang was so crucial to the success of Nvidia ($NVDA).

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Top Indian Stocks held by BlackRock – Analysis & List of Stocks

Trade Brains

Top Indian Stocks held by BlackRock : BlackRock is a global Investment firm incorporated in The United States in 1999. The firm has a presence in 36 countries with clients across the Americas, Europe, Asia, Australia, and EMEA. The Company is an Investment manager to Individuals, Educational and non-profit Organizations, Pension Funds, Insurance Companies, and governments.

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8 Things I Think I Think

A Wealth of Common Sense

Some things I’ve been thinking about lately: 1. I think this is the strongest labor market we’ll see in my lifetime. Since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, the U.S. economy has added more than 6 million new jobs. This year we’ve added 2.5 million jobs. The whole idea of rate increases was to slow consumer demand which would cause companies to cut back which would lead to job cuts which would sl.

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Are You Being Shopped?

Advisor Perspectives

To break out of your prospect’s selection process and avoid being commoditized as an advisor, you must shift them out of their shopping-mode mindset.

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Longform links: consolidation and shakeout

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Kelly and Zach Weinersmith co-authors of "A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?" (insidehook.com) An excerpt from "The Greatest Capitalist Who Ever Lived: Tom Watson Jr. and the Epic Story of How IBM Created the Digital Age" by Ralph Watson McElvenny and Marc Wortman.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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NAIFA Cuts the Ribbon on Its New Headquarters

NAIFA Advisor Today

NAIFA 2023 President Bryon Holz , CLU, ChFC, LUTCF, CASL, LACP, and 2024 President Tom Cothron , LUTCF, FSCP, cut the ribbon on NAIFA's new national headquarters in Arlington, VA, in early December. Also participating in the ceremony were NAIFA Past Presidents Tom Michel , LACP, CLTC, and Larry Holzberg , LUTCF, LACP.

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Retail Sales Increased 0.3% in November

Calculated Risk

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.1% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 percent from November 2022. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent from the previous month , and up 4.1 percent above November 2022.

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Health Insurance Options to Consider When Retiring Pre-Medicare Age, ep #205

Financial Symmetry

When having conversations with individuals approaching retirement, but who have yet to reach age 65, one primary concern is often in the forefront of their mind: What am I going to do about health insurance before I reach Medicare age? … Continued The post Health Insurance Options to Consider When Retiring Pre-Medicare Age, ep #205 appeared first on Financial Symmetry, Inc.

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