Sat.Jul 08, 2023 - Fri.Jul 14, 2023

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From Unprofitable To $115M AUM: Reinventing A 2nd Generation Advisory Business By Finding The Right Niche

Nerd's Eye View

As owners of financial planning firms approach retirement, some may decide to sell to an external buyer, while others may plan for an internal succession. Sometimes, this succession plan can include the owner's child, providing an opportunity to keep the business in the family. At the same time, the business strategies that worked for the original owner might not be suitable or as successful for their successor, which can force the 2nd-generation owner to take a different path to ensure the firm

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 7, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Independence Day.

Economy 339
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How the Pandemic Has Changed 401(k) Plans

Wealth Management

Slower June job growth is cooling the war for talent.

Planning 298
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Physics of Kaizen: Why Somebody Should Get Credit for Fixing Problems That Never Happened : Toyota’s culture of Kaizen: continuous improvement. It is an obvious statement: companies should be continually improving. Companies that are able to successfully adopt a culture and practice of Kaizen have the ability to establish a dominant position in their market. ( Taylor P

Retail 264
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (July 15-16)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that while the new social media app Threads, designed to compete with Twitter, has surpassed 100 million users in its first week alone, its potential utility for advisors remains unclear and has raised compliance concerns for advisors whose social media archiving tools do not yet cover the new app.

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CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Drops to the Lowest Rate in 11 Years in May

Calculated Risk

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Drops to the Lowest Rate in 11 Years in May CoreLogic®. today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for May 2023.

Numbers 278

More Trending

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Quarterly Pattern of Earnings Have Returned to Normal

The Big Picture

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank notes the pattern of gradual downgrades before earnings season begins is back to normal. As the rest of the quarterly earnings roll out, we should expect earnings to improve as we roll deeper into earnings season and as “later estimate beats” come in. This quarterly earnings pattern is shown above in the chart from his colleague Binky Chadha.

Banking 246
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Kitces & Carl Ep 116: Getting Training As (Or For) An Associate Advisor To Talk More In Client Meetings

Nerd's Eye View

Establishing successful client relationships as a financial advisor relies on good communication skills not just to present information persuasively and with confidence, but also to establish client rapport that allows meaningful and engaging relationships to be built. For many who are new to the financial planning profession and who have no experience working with clients, participating in client meetings can trigger feelings of anxiety, especially for those who share the common fear of public

Clients 246
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Personal finance links: peaks and valleys

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Jeff Ptak and Christine Benz talk with William Bernstein about the update version of his book "The Four Pillars of Investing." (morningstar.com) Camerson Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk with Prof. James Choi about how economic theory explains consumer behavior. (rationalreminder.libsyn.com) Dave Nadig talks ETFs and more with FactSet’s Elisabeth Kashner.

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FINRA Bars Illinois Broker For Not Disclosing Private Securities Transactions to B/D

Wealth Management

David Geake solicited an elderly couple to pledge securities as collateral for a bank loan to support a startup the rep had invested in, but the couple allegedly lost their money when the company failed.

Startup 264
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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A Dozen Contrarian Thoughts About Inflation

The Big Picture

The Consumer Price Index was up 3% year over year in June, as reported by BLS yesterday. The FRED chart above shows the near round trip from the prior decade’s range of 0-2% up to the 9% peak, and now back down to 3%. Over the past year, I have been writing a lot about inflation — what people get wrong about it, why the FOMC is always late to the party, and what the various causes of inflation — real, modeled, and imagined — actually are.

Economy 246
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Wholesale Used Car Prices Decreased 4.2% in June; Down 10.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline in June Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 4.2% in June from May. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 215.1, down 10.3% from a year ago. “ The 4.2% drop is among the largest declines in MUVVI history and the largest decline since the start of the pandemic in April 2020 when the index plunged 11.4%,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic

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Sunday links: judgment calls

Abnormal Returns

Markets 10 surprises from 2023, so far, including higher interest rates for longer. (bilello.blog) In 2023, tech stocks have snubbed the Fed. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Finance Is the worst over for the venture capital market? (axios.com) Some PE firms are looking to decarbonize companies to generate returns. (institutionalinvestor.com) Policy Why migrants are fleeing Florida.

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11 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors to Start the Week (July 10, 2023)

Wealth Management

Multifamily completions are on track for their strongest year since the 1980s, according to data from CoStar Analytics. CNN Business looks at whether the boom in generative AI could help turn around San Franciso’s real estate fortunes. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to kick off the new week.

Investing 264
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train reads: • Stocks Took an 18-Month Round Trip From Tech Bear to AI Bull : The same handful of megacap names that led the market down have been powering the latest surge. ( Businessweek ) • Inflation Cools Sharply in June, Good News for Consumers and the Fed : The Consumer Price Index climbed far more slowly in June, a relief for shoppers and a hopeful — though inconclusive — sign that America might pull off a “soft landing.” ( New York Times ) see also Inflation drops to lowest le

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 2% YoY; New Listings Down 21% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from analyst Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 8, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5%. A year into weekly new listing declines, active inventory levels have started to mirror the slow down in listing activity.

Sales 246
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Longform links: a collective hallucination

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from “Random Acts of Medicine: The Hidden Forces That Sway Doctors, Impact Patients, and Shape Our Health” by Anupam B. Jena and Christopher Worsham. (wsj.com) An excerpt from “Nobody’s Fool: Why We Get Taken In and What We Can Do About It” by Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris. (wsj.com) Global China may have reached its demographic peak, but that does not mean its influence is waning.

Medicine 244
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Five Considerations When Planning for Artists and Collectors

Wealth Management

Valuable artworks require specialized attention to ensure that they're safely transferred to the next generation.

Planning 264
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Mapping Changes in US Home Prices

The Big Picture

Source: Reventure Let’s get to the caveats up front: Re:Ventures has been pretty bearish on housing the past few years, even forecasting a crash; their landing page claims “ The US Housing Market is in a record Bubble in 2023 ,” and this post “ 90% Chance: RECESSION in 2022? ” has not panned out and stands inapposite of my views.

Sales 245
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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had been mentioning when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year. This has fallen sharply and is now up 3.2% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through June 2023. Services were up 5.7% YoY as of June 2023, down from 6.3% YoY in May.

Food 243
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Adviser links: humble projections

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Meb Faber talks with Blake Street is a Founding Partner and CIO of Warren Street Wealth Advisors. (mebfaber.com) Ashby Daniels talks with Hannah Moore about "doing" financial planning. (wiredplanning.com) Laurence Kotklikoff talks with David Blanchett about problems with conventional financial planning tools. (larrykotlikoff.substack.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) has snagged another custodian client, NewEdge Wealth.

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Adjusted for Risk: AAM's CIO Cliff Corso on How to Position Portfolios For The Rest of 2023

Wealth Management

Advisors Asset Management's CIO Cliff Corso provides his investment outlook for the remainder of 2023.

Portfolio 263
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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning offsite reads: • Google’s AI Blunders Rival Xerox’s PC Mistakes : The “T” technology behind ChatGPT was devised at Google but languished there. Sound familiar? ( Bloomberg ) • Wall Street’s Recession Warning Is Flashing. Some Wonder if It’s Wrong. The yield curve has been suggesting since last year that the economy was headed for a slump. ( New York Times ) see also Dude, Where’s My Recession?

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Housing July 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 0.2% Week-over-week; Down 4.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 7th, inventory was at 465 thousand (7-day average), compared to 466 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 5.3%. And inventory is up 14.7% from the seasonal bottom 12 weeks ago.

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Saturday links: toppling Twitter

Abnormal Returns

Transport What will it take for the U.S. to take pedestrian safety seriously? (vox.com) Ambulances don't need to run 'hot' all the time. (statnews.com) Why more e-bike fires are going to happen. (theatlantic.com) Lithium Norway has found a huge stash of high-grade phosphate rock. (euractiv.com) Why automakers are making deals with miners. (nytimes.com) Energy U.S. incentives are stealing renewable projects from Europe.

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Raymond James to Pay $12.5M for 'Unreasonable' Commission Charges

Wealth Management

Raymond James will pay more than $12 million to settle charges of 'unreasonable commissions' on transactions, according to state regulators.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Transcript: Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton

The Big Picture

 The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton CEO , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , Stitcher , Google , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

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Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July I reviewed home inventory and sales. Here is some data from the recently released FHFA’s National Mortgage Database showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q1 2023.

Marketing 238
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#FA Success Ep 341: Bolstering The Quality Of Advice By Deliberately Rotating Advisors For Each Client, With Thor McIlrath

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 341st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Thor McIlrath. Thor is the Owner of McIlrath & Eck, an independent RIA based in Arlington, Washington, that oversees more than $610 million in assets under management for 970 client households. What's unique about Thor, though, is how he has structured his firm so that clients rotate through different advisors at the firm each time they come in for a meeting, eschewing the traditional

Clients 189
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Aretha Franklin's Will Drama Is Over

Wealth Management

A Michigan jury deemed a handwritten document found in between Aretha’s couch cushions a valid will.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.