Sat.Sep 14, 2024 - Fri.Sep 20, 2024

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Personal finance links: mistake management

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Rubin Miller about the complexities of investing. (peterlazaroff.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Meir Statman author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance." (talkingbillions.co) How to Retire A review of Christine Benz's new book “How to Retire: 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful and Wealthy Retirement.

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At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money?

The Big Picture

At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money? Brian Portnoy, Shaping Wealth (September 18, 2024) Can money buy you happiness? How much money is too much? Does wealth offer diminishing returns? In this edition of At the Money, I sit down with Brian Portnoy to explore these questions. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Brian Portnoy is founder and CEO of Shaping Wealth , which helps advisors and their clients to achieve “funded contentment,” and operates as an outsourced Chief Beha

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AI May Transform Your Advisor Practice In 10 Years, But It Still Won’t Do Much In 2 Years

Nerd's Eye View

In the nearly 2 years since the launch of ChatGPT, there has been an explosion of new technology solutions incorporating Artificial Intelligence (AI). Today, AI is now almost ubiquitous across many of the tools that we use, from smartphone cameras to search engines to office productivity software. For financial advisors, too, a ballooning number of new advisor-focused AI tools has appeared over the last 24 months, purporting to save advisors' time and staffing needs by automatically performing p

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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If It Ain't Broke, Don’t Fix It: A Dangerous Mindset

Time and time again we tell ourselves and others NOT take action on something that is not "broken." We apply that mindset at home and at work. Sometimes, it doesn’t work out so well. Because when it's truly broken, it's usually an emergency, costs more and causes stress. Join us in this webinar where we share ways where you are able to anticipate your needs, understand benefits that you will get from getting better now instead of later, and relieving your team of tasks that they don't need to be

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Podcast links: changing the future

Abnormal Returns

Listening How the Acquired podcast became a huge success with tech types. (esquire.com) Tim Ferriss is changing things up for his podcast. (tim.blog) Companies Tyler Cowen talks with Tobi Lütke who is the CEO and co-founder of Shopify ($SHOP). (conversationswithtyler.com) Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Ric Elias who is the CEO and co-founder of Red Ventures (joincolossus.com) Logan Bartlett talks with Will Gaybrick, President of Stripe.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 21–September 22)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) released the latest edition its annual survey outlining the state of state-registered RIAs, showing that the number of state-registered firms and their assets declined slightly in 2023 (perhaps due to many firms seeing their AUM hit the $100 million mark amidst strong market performance and organic grow

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 September The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 September. 8-14 September 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 66.6% (-1.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.05 (+0.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$107.86 (-1.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-wee

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Adviser links: going back to work

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick talk advisor tech with fintech expert Jason Pereira. (youtube.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Cady North, Founder and CEO of North Financial Advisor, about planning for a sabbatical. (standarddeviationspod.com) Retirement Retirees go back to work for any number of reasons. (investmentnews.com) A checklist if a client gets laid off near retirement age.

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Marty Zweig Trading Rules

The Big Picture

Marty’s Zweig’s Trading rules 1) The trend is your friend; don’t fight the tape hard return; 2) Let profits run take losses quickly; 3) If you buy for a reason and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid then sell 4) if the values don’t make sense then don’t participate (2 + 2 = 4) 5) The cheap get cheaper the deer get deer; 6) Don’t fight the Fed (less valid than #1); 7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust; 8) Adapt to change; 9) Don’t let your

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4 Things Great Companies Do to Improve Cash Flow

Speaker: Don Gallianza, Credit Manager at Chevron Phillips Chemical and Indy Chakrabarti, Chief Marketing Officer at HighRadius

4 Case Studies to Optimize DSO 26 Days Sales Outstanding. Already better than most. But, should you improve on that? Why would 3 fewer days even matter? It matters because it fundamentally transforms business outcomes. Join this webinar to explore 4 things companies do to reclaim hard dollars - not just soft costs - and go from good to great! What You'll Learn 6 operational KPIs every AR manager should track: Define and track these metrics to enhance performance, drive efficiency, and make infor

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7 Lessons Learned Launching A Sustainable Business Model To Serve (And Attract!) Profitable Millennials And Gen Z Clients

Nerd's Eye View

The business model of many financial advisory firms revolves around serving clients who are able to pay a certain minimum in annual advisory fees, which reflects not only the value that the advisor can provide for the client, but also the amount that the advisor must charge in order to provide the level of deep planning and investment management that higher-net-worth clients expect (while also earning enough profit to make the venture worthwhile).

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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall, Triggering Recession Signal

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in August to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.2% from the previous month to 100.2, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.

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Thursday links: removing a few things

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Who are you going to bet on? Hedge funds or retail traders? (monevator.com) The case for focusing on fewer things. (collabfund.com) Crypto Stablecoin issuers have Tether envy. (sherwood.news) Another crypto-based prediction betting market is coming online. (sherwood.news) Trading Stocks and ETFs will soon be priced in half-cent increments. (fa-mag.com) Why Citadel Securities chose to not become a primary dealer.

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MiB: Victor Khosla, Strategic Value Partners

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Victor Khosla, Founder and CIO of Strategic Value Partners. Before establishing SVP in 2001, Victor served as President of Cerberus Capital. In the 1990s, he built and managed the distressed credit desk at both Citi and Merrill Lynch, establishing two of the top proprietary trading businesses. SVP has grown 5x in size over the past 10 years, now manages over $18B in AUM with 200 employees.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Kitces & Carl Ep 147: Preparing An Advisory Firm For The Risk Of A Market (And Revenue) Decline

Nerd's Eye View

Given the general trend of advisory firms charging on some percentage of assets under management, market growth can also be a strong indicator of advisory firm growth. For firms with revenue tied to portfolio performance, the additional income that can accompany a healthy market outlook allows firms to dedicate more resources to marketing and other processes to help grow the firm.

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August; Median House Prices Increased 3.1% Year-over-Year

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 4.2% year-over-year compared to August 2023. This was the thirty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Elder financial fraud is only going up. Maybe AI can help. (abnormalreturns.com) Noted personal finance writer Jonathan Clements is dying. He still has plenty left to teach us. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How the new AirPod Pros 2 could upend the hearing aid industry. (cnbc.com) Sometimes things really are different this time.

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RWM 11th Anniversary (Steel)

The Big Picture

It’s hard to believe that it has been only 11 years since we launched RWM… I am in Huntington Beach, California at at FutureProof 2024 — I’ll get some photos up later this week — but I don’t have time to get lost in any nostalgia If you are interested in our history , check out any of the links below — or my or Josh ‘s announcements when we launched.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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#FASuccess Ep 403: Carving Your Path As An Investment Nerd By Building A Fractional CIO Solution For Other Advisory Firms, With Eric Stein

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 403rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Eric Stein. Eric is a partner at East Bay Investment Solutions, a firm that provides fractional Chief Investment Officer services based in Charleston, South Carolina, that supports over $6 billion in assets under advisement across 26 advisory firms they serve.

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AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in August; Multi-family Billings Declined for 25th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7 It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period.

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Friday links: a penchant for simplicity

Abnormal Returns

Finance Investors are no longer enamored with Renaissance Technologies' public investment vehicles. (ft.com) Are rate cuts going to help boost startup exits? (tomtunguz.com) You can't spell private equity without dividend recap. (ft.com) Big Tech Three Mile Island is restarting to help power data centers. (wsj.com) What is really behind Amazon's ($AMZN) RTO policy?

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Breaking Down OnlyFans’ Stunning Economics : In 2024, OnlyFans generated $6.3 billion in gross revenues, up from $300 million five years earlier. Though OnlyFans is based around subscriptions, over 60% over consumer spending is now via transactions (and unlike say, Candy Crush, these are not micro transactions but instead add-on purchases that can cost dozens of dollars or

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Trend-Following Filters – Part 8

Alpha Architect

The filters analyzed in this article are related to Savitzky-Golay filters [6]. Savitzky-Golay filters were originally developed to smooth noisy data obtained from chemical spectrum analyzers. There are two types: smoothers and differentiators. As with the filters discussed in this article, the design of Savitzky-Golay filters is also based on a least squares fit of the observations to a polynomial function, where the degree of the polynomial is selected based on the structure of the observation

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Retirement Beyond the Numbers

Advisor Perspectives

Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.

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Monday links: oil demand growth

Abnormal Returns

Apple How the new AirPods 4 with Active Noise Cancellation work. (theverge.com) The FDA approved sleep apnea detection on the new Apple Watch. (cnbc.com) Apple has launched a standlone password app. (wired.com) Most hearing loss goes untreated. Apple Air Pod Pro 2s could change that. (wsj.com) Finance Can election prediction markets become a big thing in the U.S.?

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10 Money Revelations in my 40s

A Wealth of Common Sense

I wrote a post almost 10 years ago about money revelations in my 30s. Here’s an updated version now that I’m approaching my mid-40s (dammit Father Time): 1. Lifestyle creep isn’t always bad. Yes, you need to live below your means, delay gratification and avoid overspending. But I am not a fan of living like a pauper when you’re younger just so you can have more money when you’re older.

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Auditpalooza: Rocking the Month-End Close Audit

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

A good, fast, clean audit leads to a happy work life. Join us in this one-hour webinar, where we share the best ways to prepare and conduct your audit process to maximize audit satisfaction and minimize administrative time in month-end close and financial reporting. Learning objectives: This course objective is to review leading practices to maximize audit success.

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FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates

Calculated Risk

Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. It is possible the FOMC will cut by 50bp. Currently market participants are split evenly between a 25bp and a 50bp cut this week. Market participants are also pricing in a total of 75bp in cuts by the November meeting, and between 100bp to 125bp in cuts by December.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Advisor Perspectives

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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Research links: being early

Abnormal Returns

Indexing What does an index of CTA returns actually measure? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why would anyone want to invest in an index of hedge fund returns? (ft.com) Diversification Bob Elliott, "While selection alpha is uncertain, the benefits of diversification and lower fees are far more certain." (caia.org) It's easier to forecast correlations and volatility than returns.

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