Sat.Sep 14, 2024 - Fri.Sep 20, 2024

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Marty Zweig Trading Rules

The Big Picture

Marty’s Zweig’s Trading rules 1) The trend is your friend; don’t fight the tape hard return; 2) Let profits run take losses quickly; 3) If you buy for a reason and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid then sell 4) if the values don’t make sense then don’t participate (2 + 2 = 4) 5) The cheap get cheaper the deer get deer; 6) Don’t fight the Fed (less valid than #1); 7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust; 8) Adapt to change; 9) Don’t let your

Marketing 306
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Elder financial fraud is only going up. Maybe AI can help. (abnormalreturns.com) Noted personal finance writer Jonathan Clements is dying. He still has plenty left to teach us. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How the new AirPod Pros 2 could upend the hearing aid industry. (cnbc.com) Sometimes things really are different this time.

Portfolio 298
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AI May Transform Your Advisor Practice In 10 Years, But It Still Won’t Do Much In 2 Years

Nerd's Eye View

In the nearly 2 years since the launch of ChatGPT, there has been an explosion of new technology solutions incorporating Artificial Intelligence (AI). Today, AI is now almost ubiquitous across many of the tools that we use, from smartphone cameras to search engines to office productivity software. For financial advisors, too, a ballooning number of new advisor-focused AI tools has appeared over the last 24 months, purporting to save advisors' time and staffing needs by automatically performing p

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AIA: Architecture Billings Declined in August; Multi-family Billings Declined for 25th Consecutive Month

Calculated Risk

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained sluggish in August, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 45.7 It has now been nearly two years since firms saw sustained growth. However, clients are still expressing interest in new projects, as inquiries into work have continued to increase during that period.

Clients 129
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money?

The Big Picture

At the Money: Can You Have Too Much Money? Brian Portnoy, Shaping Wealth (September 18, 2024) Can money buy you happiness? How much money is too much? Does wealth offer diminishing returns? In this edition of At the Money, I sit down with Brian Portnoy to explore these questions. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Brian Portnoy is founder and CEO of Shaping Wealth , which helps advisors and their clients to achieve “funded contentment,” and operates as an outsourced Chief Beha

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7 Lessons Learned Launching A Sustainable Business Model To Serve (And Attract!) Profitable Millennials And Gen Z Clients

Nerd's Eye View

The business model of many financial advisory firms revolves around serving clients who are able to pay a certain minimum in annual advisory fees, which reflects not only the value that the advisor can provide for the client, but also the amount that the advisor must charge in order to provide the level of deep planning and investment management that higher-net-worth clients expect (while also earning enough profit to make the venture worthwhile).

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 14.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 13, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 14.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Future Proof 2024: Wow!!

The Big Picture

Now THAT’S a financial conference! If you are reading this on the 19th, I may be still asleep. I am writing this on my flight home, scheduled to land at midnight Wednesday; I was alcohol-free all week (ok, one Mexican lager Tuesday afternoon at my RWM-crew pool swim after the Animal Spirits Live !), and while I feel pretty good, its been a long week.

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Monday links: oil demand growth

Abnormal Returns

Apple How the new AirPods 4 with Active Noise Cancellation work. (theverge.com) The FDA approved sleep apnea detection on the new Apple Watch. (cnbc.com) Apple has launched a standlone password app. (wired.com) Most hearing loss goes untreated. Apple Air Pod Pro 2s could change that. (wsj.com) Finance Can election prediction markets become a big thing in the U.S.?

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 21–September 22)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) released the latest edition its annual survey outlining the state of state-registered RIAs, showing that the number of state-registered firms and their assets declined slightly in 2023 (perhaps due to many firms seeing their AUM hit the $100 million mark amidst strong market performance and organic grow

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Trend-Following Filters – Part 8

Alpha Architect

The filters analyzed in this article are related to Savitzky-Golay filters [6]. Savitzky-Golay filters were originally developed to smooth noisy data obtained from chemical spectrum analyzers. There are two types: smoothers and differentiators. As with the filters discussed in this article, the design of Savitzky-Golay filters is also based on a least squares fit of the observations to a polynomial function, where the degree of the polynomial is selected based on the structure of the observation

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MiB: Victor Khosla, Strategic Value Partners

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Victor Khosla, Founder and CIO of Strategic Value Partners. Before establishing SVP in 2001, Victor served as President of Cerberus Capital. In the 1990s, he built and managed the distressed credit desk at both Citi and Merrill Lynch, establishing two of the top proprietary trading businesses. SVP has grown 5x in size over the past 10 years, now manages over $18B in AUM with 200 employees.

Economy 189
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Friday links: a penchant for simplicity

Abnormal Returns

Finance Investors are no longer enamored with Renaissance Technologies' public investment vehicles. (ft.com) Are rate cuts going to help boost startup exits? (tomtunguz.com) You can't spell private equity without dividend recap. (ft.com) Big Tech Three Mile Island is restarting to help power data centers. (wsj.com) What is really behind Amazon's ($AMZN) RTO policy?

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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#FASuccess Ep 403: Carving Your Path As An Investment Nerd By Building A Fractional CIO Solution For Other Advisory Firms, With Eric Stein

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 403rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Eric Stein. Eric is a partner at East Bay Investment Solutions, a firm that provides fractional Chief Investment Officer services based in Charleston, South Carolina, that supports over $6 billion in assets under advisement across 26 advisory firms they serve.

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Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Increased to 1.356 million Annual Rate in August A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in August were above expectations and starts in June and July were revised slightly. A solid report. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

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RWM 11th Anniversary (Steel)

The Big Picture

It’s hard to believe that it has been only 11 years since we launched RWM… I am in Huntington Beach, California at at FutureProof 2024 — I’ll get some photos up later this week — but I don’t have time to get lost in any nostalgia If you are interested in our history , check out any of the links below — or my or Josh ‘s announcements when we launched.

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Adviser links: going back to work

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick talk advisor tech with fintech expert Jason Pereira. (youtube.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Cady North, Founder and CEO of North Financial Advisor, about planning for a sabbatical. (standarddeviationspod.com) Retirement Retirees go back to work for any number of reasons. (investmentnews.com) A checklist if a client gets laid off near retirement age.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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My Career Path

A Wealth of Common Sense

“What do you want to do?” “I want to work in a cool job with cool people.” “OK…doing what exactly?” “um…well…I mean…” This was a conversation that occurred in my senior year of college with the guidance counselor. I knew I wanted to work in finance in some capacity because I liked numbers, but beyond that, I had no plan.

Numbers 120
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Schedule for Week of September 15, 2024

Calculated Risk

The key reports this week are August Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Breaking Down OnlyFans’ Stunning Economics : In 2024, OnlyFans generated $6.3 billion in gross revenues, up from $300 million five years earlier. Though OnlyFans is based around subscriptions, over 60% over consumer spending is now via transactions (and unlike say, Candy Crush, these are not micro transactions but instead add-on purchases that can cost dozens of dollars or

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Thursday links: removing a few things

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Who are you going to bet on? Hedge funds or retail traders? (monevator.com) The case for focusing on fewer things. (collabfund.com) Crypto Stablecoin issuers have Tether envy. (sherwood.news) Another crypto-based prediction betting market is coming online. (sherwood.news) Trading Stocks and ETFs will soon be priced in half-cent increments. (fa-mag.com) Why Citadel Securities chose to not become a primary dealer.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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What the Fed Rate Cut Means For the Economy

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: I know Ben talked about rate cuts and the stock market a few weeks ago but what about the economy? Did Powell just guarantee a soft landing by cutting 50 basis points this week? There are no guarantees in life or the markets, unfortunately. The rate cut helps the soft landing scenario but you never know with these things. Let’s invert this question and start with what Fed rate cuts don’t mean.

Economy 120
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates

Calculated Risk

Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. It is possible the FOMC will cut by 50bp. Currently market participants are split evenly between a 25bp and a 50bp cut this week. Market participants are also pricing in a total of 75bp in cuts by the November meeting, and between 100bp to 125bp in cuts by December.

Banking 120
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Retirement Beyond the Numbers

Advisor Perspectives

Christine Benz is Morningstar’s director of personal finance and retirement planning, but she’s written a book that evokes Viktor Frankl as much as Bill Sharpe, aiming to go well beyond the mathematics of saving for, and living in, retirement.

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Saturday links: setting the stage

Abnormal Returns

Autos Despite the hype, EV sales are still growing. (grist.org) It's hard to see a way forward for Polestar. (wired.com) RIP, Autoblog. (jalopnik.com) Transport Driverless semis are nearing the roads. (arstechnica.com) Demand for Canadian-made firefighting airplanes is on the rise. (bnnbloomberg.ca) Energy Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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10 Money Revelations in my 40s

A Wealth of Common Sense

I wrote a post almost 10 years ago about money revelations in my 30s. Here’s an updated version now that I’m approaching my mid-40s (dammit Father Time): 1. Lifestyle creep isn’t always bad. Yes, you need to live below your means, delay gratification and avoid overspending. But I am not a fan of living like a pauper when you’re younger just so you can have more money when you’re older.

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Wednesday: Housing Starts, FOMC Announcement

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.250 million SAAR, up from 1.238 million SAAR. • During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate). • At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement.

Economics 119
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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall, Triggering Recession Signal

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in August to its lowest level since October 2016. The index fell 0.2% from the previous month to 100.2, marking its sixth consecutive monthly decline.

Economics 113