Sat.Jul 06, 2024 - Fri.Jul 12, 2024

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Update: Lumber Prices Down 20% YoY

Calculated Risk

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

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Why Hasn’t the California Globe Retracted Its Story?

The Big Picture

@TBPInvictus here If you’re tired of California-minimum-wage-and-its-impact-on-limited-service-restaurant-employment stories, I understand. Leave this page immediately. I’m tired of it, too, but some stories are so factually challenged that they demand a response. So, allow me to address a hot mess of a story that appeared recently in the California Globe.

Food 338
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week How major asset classes performed in June 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Just how useful is historical financial markets data? (retirementresearcher.com) Don't forget, stocks are real assets. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Europe's stock market has badly lagged the U.S. How much longer can it last? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Beware small sample sizes.

Insurance 312
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The Great Wealth Treadmill

Wealth Management

What is horizontal wealth transfer?

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2024.

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It’s Only a Point…

The Big Picture

A quick break from book duty and doing our quarterly client call to share this fascinating discussion from tennis great Roger Federer: “In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches… What percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.” -Roger Federer This is one of those great commencement addresses that will only gain stature over time.

Clients 317

More Trending

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Changing an RIA’s Name to Reflect Its New Identity

Wealth Management

Sometimes, what seems like the most straightforward task can end up the most difficult and meaningful.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 5, 2024. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 310
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Planning For Changes In Client Marginal Tax Rates After TCJA’s Sunset

Nerd's Eye View

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), passed in 2017, was one of the most extensive pieces of tax legislation to be passed in the last 30 years, touching many aspects of individual, corporate, and estate tax. However, most of TCJA's provisions are set to 'sunset' at the end of 2025 – an event that would have at least as much impact as TCJA's initial passage.

Taxes 246
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Longform links: the traumatized life

Abnormal Returns

Defense How Russia has adapted to Western weapons in Ukraine. (wsj.com) Advances in drone warfare has happened outside the purview of the defense giants. (on.ft.com) GPS is increasingly under attack. (nytimes.com) Gambling Stock trading continues to migrate onto smartphones and apps. (bloomberg.com) Smartphones and ubiquitous gambling go hand-in-hand.

Economy 285
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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IRS Stops Complying with Treasury Directive on Auditing Wealthy Taxpayers

Wealth Management

The IRS shifts its audit focus to a wider income range.

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An Early Look at 2025 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base

Calculated Risk

The BLS reported yesterday: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 308.163 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA).

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‘50 Shades of Beige’: Meet Britain’s New Prime Minister

The Big Picture

Source: New York Times The NYT: The final votes in Britain’s parliamentary elections are still being counted, but one thing is crystal clear: After 14 years in power, the Conservative Party is out. More than that: It’s been thoroughly punished by the British public, reduced to barely 120 seats, the party’s worst result in its history. Several prominent figures — including former Prime Minister Liz Truss — lost their seats.

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Personal finance links: a wonderful gift

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with William Bernstein about changing your behavior for the better. (ritholtz.com) Sam Parr talks with Scott Galloway author of "The Algebra of Wealth: A Simple Formula for Financial Security." (podcasts.apple.com) Dan Haylett talks with David Blanchett about swapping 'financial independence' for retirement. (humansvsretirement.com) Thomas Kopelman and Jacob Turner talk retirement planning with Taylor Schulte.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Where Public REITs Stand at Midyear

Wealth Management

REIT total returns rose for the second straight month and are approaching a break-even point for the year.

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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High

Calculated Risk

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q2; Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High • ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas • Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year • Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales This is usually published 4 to 6 t

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#FASuccess Ep 393: Taking The Risk Of A Multi-Million-Dollar Succession Loan To Make The Business What You Want It To Be, With Alex Lewis

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 393rd episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Alex Lewis. Alex is the owner of Blackbridge Financial, a hybrid advisory firm based in Irmo, South Carolina, that oversees approximately $330 million in assets under management for 415 client households. What's unique about Alex, though, is how, at age 29, he took on a multi-million-dollar loan to purchase the firm from its founder as his successor, and, in the 4 years since,

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Monday links: a gambling zeitgeist

Abnormal Returns

Finance Why Bill Ackman spends so much time on Twitter. (sherwood.news) Hedge funds are boosting their electricity trading capabilities. (wsj.com) Human FX traders are getting replaced by algorithms. (bloomberg.com) Why you should expect to see more ETFs designed by, and for, institutional investors. (institutionalinvestor.com) Housing Housing supply and affordability go hand-in-hand.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Pros and Cons of a Living Inheritance

Wealth Management

It can be a “financial helping hand” and a great way to test-drive how well the adult kids will handle their inheritance when the time comes.

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 10% in June

Calculated Risk

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Gained 10% in June The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 10.4% in June to 198.6 (2000=100) from the revised May reading of 179.9. Over the month, commercial planning increased 14.5% and institutional planning ticked up 0.2%. “Data centers continued to dominate planning projects in June – fueling another strong month for commercial planning,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Co

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The Return Of IAR Ethics CE Day And The State Of The (Nerd’s Eye View) Blog

Nerd's Eye View

After several turbulent years in both markets and workforces, 2024 appears to be the 'most normal' year of late, with strong market performance, cooling (or at least no longer rising!?) interest rates, and relatively little new tax legislation (yet). Yet the need for advisor education – and the regulatory requirements to get it (in the form of Continuing Education obligations) – never ends, with the latest focus for most financial advisors being on the ongoing expansion of NASAA's 20

Ethics 239
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Podcast links: crypto confessions

Abnormal Returns

The biz How a podcast network makes money. (linkedin.com) Spotify ($SPOT) has a bundling problem. (vox.com) Global Tyler Cowen talks with Brian Winter discuss the politics and economics of nearly every country from the equator down. (conversationswithtyler.com) Russell Napier talks with Harold James, author of "Seven Crashes: The Economic Crises That Shaped Globalisation.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Bridgewater Co-CIO Sees AI Adding ‘Incredible Strength’ for Investors

Wealth Management

Bridgewater's Greg Jensen said this current AI boom is nothing like the 1999 tech bubble.

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Thursday: CPI, Unemployment Claims

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for June from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.4% YoY. 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • These people still believe in democracy (little d) and are working to keep it. On this July 4th holiday, America’s system of democracy is under threat. These people are working to keep it alive and well. ( USA Today ) • The Fried Chicken Sandwich Wars Are More Cutthroat Than Ever Before : Here’s why everyone from fast-casual chains to chefs at Michelin-starred resta

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Research links: simple corporate events

Abnormal Returns

Asset pricing The CAPM doesn't work. Maybe this measure does. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Brown stocks outperform green stocks. (alphaarchitect.com) Hedge funds Replicating multi-strategy hedge fund returns is kind of a waste. (insights.finominal.com) Do even failed activist investors help stock prices? (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Quant stuff More research is being done on the interaction between social media and market outcomes.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Next-Gen Prospects Are Wondering: Where Are You?

Wealth Management

Today, the conversation isn’t led by you saying, “Let me tell you about our firm.” It’s led by prospects saying, “Hey, I’ve been following your content, and now I want to meet.

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Housing July 8th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.1% Week-over-week, Up 40.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.1% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of July 5th, inventory was at 653 thousand (7-day average), compared to 646 thousand the prior week.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (July 13-14)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that at a time when employee retention has heightened importance for advisory firms given the ongoing competition for advisor talent, recent studies indicate that factors such as firm culture and leadership, as well as providing advisors with a sense of autonomy, can play important roles in building advisor loyalty to the firm.

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Sunday links: what to trade

Abnormal Returns

Markets How the rise of automated investing has changed the stock market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) When did the 'degenerate economy' really take hold? (howardlindzon.com) Crypto Mt Gox's Bitcoins are in motion. (axios.com) Why Bitcoin miners are of interest, i.e. they have power to run data centers. (coindesk.com) AI Do we really want our AI assistants emailing back and forth?

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.