Sat.Oct 19, 2024 - Fri.Oct 25, 2024

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3%: Great Depression, GFC, 1970s & 2020s?

The Big Picture

What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.

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Thursday links: the worst investment strategy

Abnormal Returns

Markets Degeneracy has become a fixture of the current environment. (howardlindzon.com) The stock market's biggest winners started out as small caps. (freedomdaysolutions.com) Strategy How often do outlier 10-year forecasts turn out? (ritholtz.com) Why optimism makes sense over the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Cash was never meant to be a long-term investment.

Investing 289
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 26–27)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study by Cerulli Associates and Osaic found that at a time when consumers are increasingly seeking comprehensive planning relationships with their financial advisors, many advisors appear to be overestimating the comprehensiveness of the services they provide.

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Am I a Permabull?

A Wealth of Common Sense

We also answered questions about how to write engaging content, defining your audience when writing, how to balance stories vs. numbers in a presentation and more. Further Reading: 50 Ways the World is Getting Better 1The other choices were What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars and The Money Game. The post Am I a Permabull? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense.

Numbers 145
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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MiB: Toto Wolff, Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Toto Wolff , Team Principal & CEO of the Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team. Prior to joining Mercedes, Toto spent time in the investment world, founding his own company Marchfifteen in 1998 and Marchsixteen in 2004. In 2009 Toto combined his passion for racing and business by investing in the Williams F1 Team. He eventually came to be the team’s Executive Director, helping to lead them toward their first win at the Spanish Grand Prix in eight years.

More Trending

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Quantifying (More Accurately) The Real Impact Of A Financial Advisor’s Costs On Their Clients’ Nest Eggs

Nerd's Eye View

While the financial advice industry has transformed in many ways over the past several decades, one aspect that has remained relatively constant is the use of the Assets Under Management (AUM) fee model as a common way for many advisors to get paid. Though in practice, while a 1% AUM fee is a common 'starting point' in the industry, the actual fee structure can vary based on the firm's approach; for example, some firms may reduce the fee for high-net-worth clients, or charge an additional fee fo

Clients 246
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Where Does Economic Growth Come From?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Earlier this week I wrote about how America is the envy of the world.1 There was plenty of pushback. Many Europeans pointed out we have plenty of other problems plus a far worse safety net than they do. Fair enough. There were also a lot of comments on inequality, even though I addressed that in the piece. It is worth noting research shows 40% of the rise in income inequality has been undone since 2020.

Economics 143
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At the Money: Building a Bond Ladder

The Big Picture

 At The Money: BlackRock on Building a Bond Ladder (October 23, 2024) Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Karen Veraa is a Fixed Income Product Strategist within BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group focusing on iShares fixed-income ETFs. She supports iShares clients, generates content on fixed-income markets and ETFs, develops new fixed-income iShares ETF strategies, and partners with the iShares team on product delivery.

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Adviser links: time and space

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Frazer Rice talks RIA marketing with Richard Heft, President of EXT Marketing. (frazerrice.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Ben Haas about how to conduct client 're-discovery' meetings. (podcasts.apple.com) Josh Brown and Michael Kitces talk about how a recent CFP ad campaign went wrong. (youtube.com) The biz Schwab Advisor Solutions will look to boost revenue, just not through custody fees.

CFP 290
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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5 Financial Considerations for Americans Thinking About Retiring Abroad

Carson Wealth

Retiring abroad can be a dream come true for many Americans, offering the opportunity to explore new cultures, enjoy different climates, and potentially stretch retirement savings. But moving to a new country involves significant financial planning. If you’re considering making the leap, there are key financial considerations you need to weigh before you make this major life change.

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The New Normal of Negativity

A Wealth of Common Sense

There are certain financial publications that you can just tell have a European bent to them. They use words with an extra “u” like favourite, glamour, or colour. They use cheque instead of check. And per cent has a space for some reason. The Financial Times and The Economist come to mind. The Economist has a new special report with a series of stories about how America is the envy of the world, economically s.

Economics 145
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Transcript: Brian Higgins, King Street

The Big Picture

The transcript from this week’s, Transcript: Brian Higgins, King Street , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ 00:00:09 [Speaker Changed] This is Masters in business with Barry Riol on Bloomberg Radio. 00:00:15 [Speaker Changed] I’m Barry Ritholtz, you are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Rad

Numbers 147
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Wednesday links: avoiding losses

Abnormal Returns

Companies Google's ($GOOGL) big businesses are in a slow, decline. (wheresyoured.at) Starbucks' ($SBUX) new CEO is clearing the decks. (bloomberg.com) Walmart ($WMT) is expanding home delivery of pharmaceuticals. (fastcompany.com) Finance Howard Marks thinks nearly every investor should look at private debt. (on.ft.com) Banks are increasingly backing capital call loans.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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#FASuccess Ep 408: Merging Into A Mid-Sized Firm To Grow Something Together (And Have A Real Piece Of It), With Maddi Keegan

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 408th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Maddi Keegan. Maddi is a Financial Advisor and the Director of Operations of Frazier Financial Advisors, an RIA based in Columbus, Ohio that oversees $860M in assets under management for 650 client households. What's unique about Maddi, though, is that after building a successful solo advisory firm, she then decided to merge her business with Frazier Financial Advisors, a mid-

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3% Stock Market Returns For the Next Decade?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years (just 1% after inflation): These are their baseline assumptions and they offer a range o.

Marketing 144
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Housing Oct 21st Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, Up 33.4% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.7% from the February seasonal bottom. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 33.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 34.0%), and down 21.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%).

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Personal finance links: misunderstanding risk

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway talk mortgages with Tom Graff, CIO of Facet. (podcasts.apple.com) Khe Hy talks with Erin Skinner about the challenges of mid-life. (youtube.com) Jonathan Clements Christine Benz talks with Jonathan Clements about the 'small pleasures.' (morningstar.com) Clark Howard has an honest conversation about death with Jonathan Clements.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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A 90-Day Onboarding Plan To Train Your New Superstar Client Service Associate (CSA)

Nerd's Eye View

For small advisory firms that are beginning to grow and ready to add new staff, a Client Service Associate (CSA) or similar support role is a common early hire. Ideally, this person will free up an advisor's time to let them focus on other tasks (which are likely income-producing and will allow the advisor to continue to grow the firm). However, if a new CSA is not onboarded well, then advisors run the risk of taking on additional management responsibilities without a corresponding lift in task

Clients 130
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We Need to Have a Talk About “Bond Vigilantes”

Discipline Funds

You just have to love the short-term overreactions of Mr. Market. Just two months ago we get a weak employment report and investors are panicked that the Fed is too tight. Then we get a strong employment report in September and investors are panicked that the Fed is too loose. In May the 10 year interest rate was as high as 4.75%. By September it was as low as 3.6%.

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Regulation, Wealth Management and the Elections

Wealth Management

Does it matter for regulation and the wealth management industry who wins on Election Day?

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Tuesday links: stressful tests

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why we diversify. (awealthofcommonsense.com) On the importance of portfolio rebalancing. (thefinancialbodyguard.com) Pessimists persist because we forget their poor predictions. (whitecoatinvestor.com) Crypto Stablecoins are emerging as the killer use case. (theblock.co) Why the identify of Satoshi matters. (bloomberg.com) The blockchain is coming for real estate.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September

Calculated Risk

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales 124
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Ripple cryptocurrency (XRP) jumps after company to win against SEC for its security status

Trade Brains

The cryptocurrency world is once again abuzz as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reignites its legal battle against Ripple. This latest development has sent ripples through the crypto market, leaving investors and industry watchers on edge. SEC’s Appeal and Ripple’s Response Ripple (XRP) is a digital currency and payment network.

Sales 118
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Q&A: What Makes SUBSCRIBE Tick

Wealth Management

The tech firm has quietly become a key cog in the alternative investment ecosystem.

Investing 124
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Saturday links: communities coming together

Abnormal Returns

EVs EV charging as a loss-leader. (msn.com) 5 minute EV charging is the holy grail. (ft.com) Electric school buses are a win-win. (scientificamerican.com) Autos Why buying a car still sucks. (vox.com) Parallel parking will soon be an obsolete skill. (theatlantic.com) Why so many wrecked cars end up in the small South Caucasus nation of Georgia. (bbc.com) Energy How solar power can help in disaster zones.

Food 279
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 6.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 18, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Sales 116
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Deloitte Forecast on India’s GDP; Will Indian Economy Hit $5 Trillion?

Trade Brains

Deloitte has released a promising forecast for India’s economic growth. The report predicts GDP growth between 7 and 7.2 percent for FY 2024-2025. Moreover, this matches the RBI’s own growth projection of 7.2 percent. Dr. Rumki Majumdar sees India’s economy showing strong resilience after the election period. The country maintains its position among the world’s fastest-growing large economies.

Economy 116
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AI Usage Top Priority for SEC Examiners in 2025

Wealth Management

According to the SEC division’s exam priorities, Reg BI compliance and the use of crypto assets are other areas of focus for the upcoming year.