Sat.Oct 21, 2023 - Fri.Oct 27, 2023

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Are Financial Plans Getting Too Comprehensive: How The ‘Sledgehammer Of Value’ Isn’t Actually Paying Off

Nerd's Eye View

Many financial advisors take pride in the comprehensive nature of the advice they provide to clients and use the variety of services offered as a point of differentiation between themselves and other types of advisors. Though, at some point, covering a large number of financial planning topics can eat into an advisor's time, which is problematic if clients won't pay substantially more to receive that more comprehensive advice.

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The Greatest Missed Opportunity of Our Lifetimes

The Big Picture

The chart in this morning’s reads shows what it is going to cost to fund the interest payments on the federal debt. It’s gone vertical as rates have moved from effectively 0 to over 5%. When rates were zero all of corporate America refinanced, lowering the cost of their debt to historically low levels. Households did the same; today 61% of homeowners with a mortgage are paying 4% or less in interest.

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CoreLogic: "US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August"

Calculated Risk

From CoreLogic: US Serious Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in August • The share of U.S. borrowers who were in serious mortgage delinquency (90 days or more late on payments) dropped to 0.9% in August, the lowest recorded since January 1999. • The overall national mortgage delinquency rate (30 days or more late) was at 2.6% in August, also a historic low. • The U.S. foreclosure rate held steady at 0.3% in August, unchanged since early 2022. • Only Idaho and Utah saw slight annual

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IRS Warns Taxpayers to Be Wary of Fake Charities

Wealth Management

Doing your due diligence before donating is more important than ever.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week We are living through the worst bond bear market in history. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Just how expensive are the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks? (blog.validea.com) Why TIPS now merit 'serious consideration.' (morningstar.com) There is no single definitive model for the term premium. (wsj.com) Do investors really understand the return profile of options-writing funds?

Marketing 309
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There are four million households in North Carolina

The Reformed Broker

Conservatory at Biltmore, by Ann Vasilik via Our State There are four million households in North Carolina. Approximately half of those households (1.922 million) are comprised of a married male and female with children. Another half million are a female head of household with kids. There’s 180,000 or so male-led homes with children and then 1.4 million non-family households.

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The 20 Most Future-Ready Large Cities in the U.S.

Wealth Management

California rules the list of most future-ready cities in the United States, and Texas has a strong showing.

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Thursday links: an emotional trap

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why aren't stocks down more? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) The stock-bond correlation does one thing: it changes. (fa-mag.com) Stocks outperform bonds over the long run, but not every year or even decade. (bestinterest.blog) 60/40 portfolios Where the valuation of the 60/40 portfolio stands. (morningstar.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio endures. (demystifyingmarkets.com) Strategy On the importance of being able to sit on your hands.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Charles Schwab Has Had a Terrible Year. The Surprising Reason the Brokerage King Won’t Be Dethroned. For some advisors, the move to Charles Schwab from TD Ameritrade didn’t go smoothly. Chances are, they’ll stick around anyway. ( Barron’s ) • A Recession Is No Longer the Consensus : In WSJ survey, economists lower recession probability below 50% and say Fed is finished raising interest rates. ( Wall Street Journal ) but see Car Owners

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Housing October 23rd Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.4% Week-over-week; Down 3.1% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.4% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 20th, inventory was at 554 thousand (7-day average), compared to 546 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 12.9%. And inventory is up 36.7% from the seasonal bottom 27 weeks ago.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Boomers Refocus Their Planning for the Home Stretch

Wealth Management

At this stage of clients’ lives, addressing their fears is just as important as their goals.

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Friday links: the window has closed

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The bond market is doing the Fed's work for it. (ft.com) The bond market touches just about everything. (nytimes.com) Strategy A big way how the stock market has changed over time. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Successful stock investing is about knowing when you are wrong as early as possible. (microcapclub.com) Hedge funds aren't the cure for market volatility.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 28-29)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the shift in financial advice from pure investment management to comprehensive financial planning continues, with more individuals becoming CFP professionals than CFAs in the past few years as consumers increasing the diversity of their financial goals.

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PCE Measure of Shelter Slows to 7.2% YoY in September

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2023. CPI Shelter was up 7.1% year-over-year in September, down from 7.2% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 7.2% YoY in September , down from 7.4% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Trust Protectors Explained

Wealth Management

Answers to some of advisors' most frequently asked questioned about this powerful role.

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Saturday links: superlinear returns

Abnormal Returns

EVs The case for plug-in hybrid vehicles, i.e. PHEVs. (ritholtz.com) Tesla ($TSLA) prices are down some 25% year-over-year. (axios.com) States are taxing EVs to make up for lost gas tax revenue. (washingtonpost.com) Big cities have unique challenging providing EV charging support. (politico.com) How much do EV batteries cost? (visualcapitalist.com) Transport Fatality rates for the youngest drivers have fallen over the past 20 years.

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Extracting Actionable Takeaways From The SEC’s Staff Bulletin Regarding An RIA’s Standard Of Care

Nerd's Eye View

There is a general understanding that investment advisers have a fiduciary relationship with their clients – in other words, that they are required to act in the client's best interests. But although this concept makes sense in the abstract, it isn't always clear what an adviser needs to do to fulfill their fiduciary duty in real-life situations.

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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in September

Calculated Risk

From ICE / Black Knight: ICE First Look at Monthly Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Rose in September While Foreclosure Activity Remained Muted • The national delinquency rate rose to 3.29% in September , up 12 basis points (BPS) from August and +13BPS year over year, marking only the second – and largest – annual increase in the past 2.5 years • Despite the rise, the delinquency rate is still 71BPS below the level of pre-pandemic September 2019 • Loans 30 days past due rose by 48.8K (+5.1%)

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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Admitting Imperfections, Schwab Works to Make Advisor Center More Palatable

Wealth Management

Responding to advisor feedback in the wake of the TD Ameritrade transition, Schwab detailed a variety of updates to its custodial platform at IMPACT this week—and promised more on the way.

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Wednesday links: portfolio entropy

Abnormal Returns

Strategy A big regime shift has happened in the economy and financial markets. (ritholtz.com) Rapid company growth comes with its own risks. (onveston.substack.com) Not all share buybacks are created equal. (investmenttalk.co) Finance Poor recent performance has put the IPO market back on ice. (finance.yahoo.com) Banks are still sitting on the Twitter debt they underwrote.

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#FA Success Ep 356: Scaling To (Nearly) $2M Of Revenue As A Flat-Fee, Advice-Only Firm, With Sarah-Catherine Gutierrez

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 356th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Sarah-Catherine Gutierrez. Sarah-Catherine is the founder of Aptus Financial, a fee-only financial planning firm based in Little Rock, Arkansas, that is approaching $2M in revenue and works with over 480 client households. What's unique about Sarah-Catherine, though, is that despite the common industry belief that the only way to build and scale a firm is through AUM, she has

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Osaic Lowers Advisor Fees for First Time

Wealth Management

The firm has also launched a new capital solutions program, as it kicks off its annual ConnectED conference this week.

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Sunday links: thematic potholes

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The bond market bear market is pretty epic. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Bond bear markets are different then stock bear markets. (disciplinefunds.com) Bonds are increasingly competitive with stocks. (traderfeed.blogspot.com) Equities Stop betting against America. (awealthofcommonsense.com) How time horizon affects the odds of investing in equities.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Forget the ‘death of downtowns’ — we’re about to experience the Big City Renaissance. But this bleak future is not set in stone. Cities like New York, San Francisco, and Chicago can use the short-term challenges of the remote-work shift to reinvent themselves, enhance their quality of life, and attract footloose residents.

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New Home Sales increase to 759,000 Annual Rate in September; Median New Home Price is Down 16% from the Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales increase to 759,000 Annual Rate in September Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 759 thousand. The previous three months were revised down slightly, combined. The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Cross Border Prenups

Wealth Management

Too little attention often is paid to assets outside of the jurisdiction where the parties intend to reside.

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Personal finance links: avoiding panicky financial decisions

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Hal Hershfield author of "Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today." (peterlazaroff.com) Robin Powell and Abraham Okusanya talk with Victor Haghani co-author of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions." (evidenceinvestor.com) Morgan Housel on the flaws that compound over time. (open.spotify.com) Retirement Jim Dahle, "For you to run out of money, two “bad” things have to happen: crummy returns AND a long life.

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The Trillion Dollar Question

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Rick Brink, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss inflation, what constitutes a recession, monetary policy, going long duration, the biggest risks to the market, and more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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Total Housing Completions Will Likely Increase Slightly in 2023; The Mix will Change

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Total Housing Completions Will Likely Increase Slightly in 2023; The Mix will Change Brief excerpt: Although housing starts have slowed, completions will likely increase slightly in 2023. This graph shows total housing completions and placements since 1968 with an estimate for 2023 based on completions through September.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.