The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Not only are the odds stacked against you, but very often systems that have successfully timed the market have been simply lucky, and do not succeed in out-of-sample tests.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 26, 2023
Top clicks this week Cullen Roche, "The worst narrative in finance is this idea that stocks generate 10%+." (disciplinefunds.com) Why you should believe in stocks for the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) THIS is the most important decision you will make in life. (safalniveshak.com) The 10 best books of 2023 including 'The Bathysphere Book: Effects of the Luminous Ocean Depths,’ by Brad Fox.
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Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
The traditional way that most financial planning has been offered was for an advisor to create "The Plan": a comprehensive document outlining a client's financial strategy that was delivered either on a one-time basis or updated annually. However, as the industry has shifted towards an ongoing relationship model, advisors have felt compelled to demonstrate consistent value to their clients throughout the year.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Year End Rally – Choose your weapon – tech almost always leads bull markets. ►Calm Breaks Out – One man’s calm is another man’s euphoria?
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
One of the main goals of financial advisors who market themselves is to build a foundation of trust with their prospective clients so that they feel comfortable in discussing often-sensitive financial topics and ultimately acting on the advisor's recommendations. The challenge, though, is that advisors usually have only a short amount of time to build this trust, and while advisors can use different channels (e.g., their websites, newsletters, and social media) to demonstrate their expertise, th
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
The new online home of Ritholtz Wealth Management has (finally) arrived! It’s ironic that we’re a firm with ten content creators and all these big blogs but we’ve never really paid much attention to what our corporate site looks like or how it works. It was just always an afterthought. Until today. Our old site was fine. It just didn’t do anything for anyone.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 25, 2023
This week, we speak with Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and an adjunct professor at William & Mary and the University of Delaware. He studies the impact of changing confidence on consumer decision-making and advises investors, businesses and policymakers. He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Tiffany Aliche, author of the new book "Made Whole: The Practical Guide to Reaching Your Financial Goals." (morningstar.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Mike Moran, managing director and pension strategist for Goldman Sachs ($GS) about the state of retirement preparedness. (morningstar.com) Same As Ever Lessons learned from Morgan Housel's new book "Same As Ever: Timeless Lesson on Wealth, Greed and Happiness.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments this week in the case of SEC v. Jarkesy, which in a narrow sense focuses on the SEC's use of in-house Administrative Law Judges to hear securities law cases rather than traditional Federal jury trials, but in a broader sense could call into question the SEC's (and other government agencies') authority to make rules and enforce laws in
Carson Wealth
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
By Matt Lewis, CLTC ® , Vice President, Insurance In today’s world it’s fair to say that most reasonable people believe they are going to live a long life. And when you live a long life, it’s also fair to say that sooner or later, we’re going to need some form of care. Seven out of 10 people will eventually require long-term care in their lifetime. 1 How expensive that care is depends on where you live.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
My morning train WFH reads: • Owners Keep Zombie Malls Alive Even When Towns Want to Pull the Plug : Aging malls often take a long time to expire, but they can remain valuable assets. ( Wall Street Journal ) • A strange, short journey through Shein’s world : The fast fashion brand has been trying to drop the secrecy around its business model and supply chain.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
Charlie Munger Jason Zweig, "More than almost anyone I’ve ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind." (wsj.com) Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) shareholders need to closely contemplate a post-Buffett era. (morningstar.com) Some more Charlie Munger quotes including 'In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time — none, zero.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
Welcome back to the 361st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Peter Tiboris. Peter is a Partner of Park Avenue Capital, an advisory firm affiliated with Northwestern Mutual based in New York City, that oversees $2.4 billion in assets under management for 1,377 client households. What's unique about Peter, though, is how he and his business partner have built up their firm through a combination of organic growth, and a series of mergers and acquisitio
Alpha Architect
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made. After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
My back-to-work morning reads: • How to Tweak Your Investments for a More Normal Market : Convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA; Higher interest rates means cash gets a respectable yield; Revisit concentrated positions; consider adding international stocks; buy longer-dated Treasuries. ( Barron’s ) • Economists May Have Been Flying Blind All Along : Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions bas
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Strategy It can take awhile for investors to come around to a bull market. (ritholtz.com) It's hard to be a pessimistic long-term investor. (blog.validea.com) Rates Positive real interest rates give bond investors a cushion. (alphaarchitect.com) Is the top finally in for mortgate rates? (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Crypto Does Binance really have a second life, post-indictment?
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
A Wealth of Common Sense
DECEMBER 1, 2023
I heard an old Norm Macdonald joke once that went something like this: An optimist looks at the glass as half full. A pessimist looks at the glass as half empty. I’m a pessimist and I look at the glass as half full…but I might have bowel cancer. I am a glass-is-half-full guy but tend to lean optimistic unlike Norm. Just think about all that we’ve accomplished as a species.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Trend Upward in September The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. Just Hold. There’s new evidence that market timing doesn’t work. Your odds of success are better if you just hang on and aim for average returns, our columnist says. ( New York Times ) see also The “Art” of Market Timing : Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Strategy Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) Diversification is easy in theory, difficult in practice. (pictureperfectportfolios.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is now the biggest private delivery company in the U.S. (wsj.com) Amazon ($AMZN) no longer inspires fear in the health care space. (bloomberg.com) Finance Why you should expect more bank consolidation.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
A reader asks: I’m finding it incredibly hard to invest my excess cash, even in my kids’ college funds, with the S&P 500 closing in on new highs. Objectively, I know I’m supposed to just grit my teeth and invest, not try to predict the market, take comfort in knowing that time-in-the-market is biggest factor in my long-term investment success…but IT IS SO DAMN HARD for me to do it psychological.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October to New High; Up 6.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.0% in October , from up 5.1% YoY in September. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in April 2023.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Welcome to December! Our end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street : The US stock market just posted its best month in almost a year and a half, and one of its best Novembers in decades, defying skeptics and fueling hopes for more gains to come. ( Bloomberg ) • Dimensional Fund Advisors Reaps $100B More in Assets With ETFs : The firm has $100 billion in assets under management in its nearly 40 exchange-traded funds, even though it
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Podcast Brendan Frazier talks with Shaun Erickson who is Chief Planning Officer at Single Point Partners. (wiredplanning.com) Ren Makino and Yanley Espinal talk philanthropy with Greg Ratliff, Vice President at Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors. (docs.google.com) The Smoke Show Why advisers need to keep up on changes in the technology space. (thereformedbroker.com) You can sign up for the Episode 2 of the Smoke Show featuring Flourish Cash here.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
Some questions I’m pondering about the economy at the moment: 1. Why do people keep spending money if the economy is so terrible? We’re breaking records for holiday travel: And spending money on Black Friday like crazy: Granted, this is holiday travel and spending. It’s not the normal course of action. But just look at the inflation-adjusted spending for consumers on goods and services: Lots of people.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey — Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 24, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 25, 2023
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How mathematics built the modern world : Mathematics was the cornerstone of the Industrial Revolution. A new paradigm of measurement and calculation, more than scientific discovery, built industry, modernity, and the world we inhabit today. ( Works in Progress ) • The End of Retirement : Want to keep your house?
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